Lucky November 14th! Smile and say hello to some real people today. Then think about how lucky you are to be living in this era of plenty in human history!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere as life on this greening planet continues to enjoy the best weather/climate in at least 1,000 years(the last time that it was this warm) with the added bonus of extra beneficial CO2.
Cold moderates from late week onward. Week 2 temperatures are colder on the GFS ensembles today vs yesterday.
Winter Weather Forecasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml
Snowfall the next 7 days below.
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/us_air_temperature/air_temperature
https://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/map/wind_chill_heat_index1/air_temperature
Current Weather Map
| NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop | NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion | NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion |
Current Jet Stream
| Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning |
Highs today and tomorrow.
Highs for days 3-7:
Moderating to close to average by this weekend.
Temperatures vs average for days 3-7.
Magnitude of anomalies will continue to shrink/drop as this time goes on and move east.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Quiet with Cold, Arctic high pressure departing and moderating on the back side. Any new cold fronts will not be that cold.
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Latest radar loop
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb) Go to: Most Recent Image |
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
Soilmoisture anomaly:
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#
Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week.
In july/August/Sept/Oct, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during those months. However, this year saw a HUGE increase in the Southeast!
November 14: TOP MAP SHOWS DROUGHT DECREASED a great deal from recent robust rains. This has been the theme for several weeks now. The drought has improved immensely during that period.
The maps below are updated on Thursdays.
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z Canadian ensembles:
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Nov 29, 2019 00 UTC
Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members (global model not availabl
0Z GFS(American model) Ensembles at 2 weeks:
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average).
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Wednesday: Extreme -AO continues. However, the high latitude upper level high pressure system responsible for this cold dynamic is reforming on the other side of the North Pole late in week 2. This will cause the coldest air in the high latitudes to be aimed towards N.Asia vs North America. It's still a cold pattern here but just doesn't have the COLDEST air any more.........if these models verify.
Thursday: Still looks like the cold will moderate a great deal, see bottom of this thread.
Sunday: Last weeks forecast philosophy still looks solid. Canada will be VERY mild, so cold fronts from Canada will not be that cold. The main body of frigid air will be aimed at N.Asia.
Wednesday: High latitude Upper level anomaly has shifted a great deal. Now in Northeast Canada, making the Northeast US a potential target for cold.
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/t
Saturday: the big player is the solidly negative AO. This is resulting in cold surges dropping from high latitudes Across Canada aimed at the US. With a near zero NAO and Near zero PNA, the push deeply south may not be completely maximized but cold blasts will be crossing the northern border and effecting the northern half. This will be seen with an active northern stream with periodic perturbations that dig strongly south in the flow and amplify The models have had an impossible time forecasting these entities recently.....usually under predicting them but the model to model changes have been enormous in both directions. The northern stream is in fact tougher to forecast historically. A competing, milder southern branch of the jet with mild , dried out oceanic air is trying to exert its influence pushing from west to east.
At times, the models think that this feature will warm up much of the country, possibly even defining a new pattern.......then surprise! Another chunk of northern stream energy shows up dropping south thru Canada which quickly replaces any warmth along the northern stream.
Additionally a ridge west, weakening trough east couplet is favorable for air masses to have a southern component in movement which gives the northern stream more power to intercept air masses coming from the west, trying to push east....and failing
I’ve been expecting a milder pattern in week 2 now for a week but until the AO increases more, cold surprises on week 2 models could continue.
What is most likely is that the West will warm up. How Far East the warmth can go is in question. Maybe in mid november it will finally be able to do that more....if the -AO lets
Sunday: Forecast philosophy is unchanged from yesterday.
Monday: Extreme negative values of AO going forward.......some members have it bouncing higher at the end of 2 weeks. High latitude upper level high pressure which is part of this may be shifting to the other side of the North Pole. That could mark a pattern change to milder with more zonal flow but the models have been wrong about this for the last 10 days or so when they showed a moderation.
Wednesday: Extreme -AO continues. However, the high latitude upper level high pressure system responsible for this cold dynamic is reforming on the other side of the North Pole late in week 2. This will cause the coldest air in the high latitudes to be aimed towards N.Asia vs North America. It's still a cold pattern here but just doesn't have the COLDEST air any more.........if these models verify.
Saturday: Wednesday's forecast philosophy has not changed.
Sunday: Last weeks forecast philosophy still looks solid. Canada will be VERY mild, so cold fronts from Canada will not be that cold. The main body of frigid air will be aimed at N.Asia. AO still remains strongly negative but the Arctic cold from that pattern will be aimed in the opposite direction.
Monday: Not much change. Arctic cold will be aimed towards the other side of the NorthPole and Canada gets very mild the next 10+ days. AO stays negative and NAO actually drops to negative at the end of 2 weeks, so cold threats "could" return later in November.
Wednesday: The huge deal here is the NAO crashing lower during week 2. This makes the Northeast US a target for what cold there is in Canada. Also, the potential for Nor'Easters.
Thursday: Huge changes. AO increasing to close to 0 in week 2, NAO also closer to zero. This lessens the change for cold, especially frigid temps from high latitudes/Arctic.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Updated daily just after 2pm Central.
Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability
| the 8-14 day outlooks ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data | |
Temperature Probability | |
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