INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 7, 2019, 8:01 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, November 7, 2019   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter GDP by State

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 218K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +5K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1690000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +7K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 549.1K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 943.6K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 493.8K)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (expected 3739B; previous 3695B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (expected +44B; previous +89B)

 

                        

 

12:00 PM ET. October Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. September Consumer Credit

 



 

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +15.0B; previous +17.9B)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, November 8, 2019  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September Monthly Wholesale Trade

 



 

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 95.3; previous 96.0)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 84.8)

 



 

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 113.4)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 



 

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 



 

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

Monday, November 11, 2019   

 



 

 

  N/A               Marianas: Veterans' Day

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading after a report that Beijing and Washington will cancel planned tariffs in stages, a development that could help reignite a recent upward move for equities.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8028.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8263.75. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8146.38. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8028.20.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3023.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3090.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3055.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3023.84.  



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as they extend their decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-12. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is the overnight low crossing at 157-14. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-25.



December T-notes were lower overnight as they extend the decline off October's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.075 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.075. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 127.171.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.14 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 57.85. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.  



December heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.  



December unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target.First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 168.43. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 161.11. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 157.33.  



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 2.718 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.905. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 2.718. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.697.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was a lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.99. Second resistance is the October 15th reaction high crossing at 98.38. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.97. Second support is the October 15th low crossing at 110.37.    



The December British Pound was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2877 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is  the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2877. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2578.



The December Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0182 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.0182. second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. First support is the October 15th low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.



The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.75 would open the door for a possible decline to test October's low crossing at 74.97. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.16 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.75. Second support is October's low crossing at 74.97.  



The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0929 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0931. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight as it extends the August-November trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 1519.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.



December silver was lower overnight while extending this fall's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above October's high crossing at 18.350 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.



December copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 272.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 262.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 271.55. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-September-decline crossing at 272.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 265.42. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 262.09.      



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends some of its decline off October's high but remains below broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.90 3/4.The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the September 26th low crossing at 3.80 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.98 3/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.07 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.20 3/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3.86 3/4. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.80 3/4.      



March wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.01 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.39 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.01 3/4. Second support is the September 25th low crossing at 4.82 3/4.   



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 4.37 3/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.53 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.53 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.70 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/4. Second support is October's low crossing at 4.13 1/2.     



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.50 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.20 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 24th high crossing at 5.63. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.71 1/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.35. Second support is September's low crossing at 5.00 1/4.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans were higher in overnight trading.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.40 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.19.  



January soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off October's high, the September 27th low crossing at 296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 315.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 320.70. First support is the September 27th low crossing at 296.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 293.80.    



March soybean oil was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 32.44. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.40.  



Comments
By metmike - Nov. 7, 2019, 12:29 p.m.
Like Reply

thanks tallpine!


Top is in for natural gas with a pattern change to less cold in week 2.....unless that changes.  EIA report was very bullish but ng could not hold on to gains.

Good rains for dry areas of Brazil, turning drier in Argentina. USDA report out Friday matters the most.


Contrasting forecasts for coffeeland. 

US model is on the wet side, European model is on the dry side.