KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -3.8%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.9%)
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -52.20B; previous -54.90B)
Exports (USD) (previous 207.87B)
Exports, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Imports (USD) (previous 262.76B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.5%)
9:45 AM ET. October US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.9)
10:00 AM ET. October ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 53.5; previous 52.6)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 55.2)
Prices Idx (previous 60.0)
Employment Idx (previous 50.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 53.7)
10:00 AM ET. November IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 52.6)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 43.5)
10:00 AM ET. September Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
12:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.7M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.7M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.6M)
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 519.2)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 2066.0)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.9%; previous +2.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +2.3%; previous +2.4%)
10:00 AM ET. October Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 438.853M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.702M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 220.057M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.037M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.754M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.032M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.597M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.433M)
11:00 AM ET. October Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 51.6)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was higher in overnight trading as it extends this year's rally to a new all-time high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7981.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 8248.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8087.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7981.20.
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3009.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3084.30. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3041.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3009.56.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 157-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at 161-23. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 165-07. First support is 38% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 158-12. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 157-17.
December T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, September 13th low crossing at 128.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.114 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 130.114. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 132.010. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 129.015. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at 128.160.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 56.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October-decline crossing at 58.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.78. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 52.46.
December heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the September 19th high crossing at 201.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94 would open the door for a possible test of October's low crossing at 181.51. First resistance is October's high crossing at 197.99. Second resistance is the September 19th high crossing at 201.38. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.94. Second support is October's low crossing at 181.51.
December unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 171.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 168.11. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 171.96. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 160.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 156.81.
December Henry natural gas was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 2.718 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2.905. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August-decline crossing at 2.960. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 2.718. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.627.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was a higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off October's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.56. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.98. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.63. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-October-high crossing at 96.06.
The December Euro was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 50% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 112.48. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October-decline crossing at 113.22. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.01. Second support is the October 15th low crossing at 110.37.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2828 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2958. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.3161. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2828. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2557.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off October's high, October's low crossing at 1.0029 is the next downside target. If December extends last-week's rally, October's high crossing at 1.0205 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 1.0205. second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0230. First support is the October 15th low crossing at 1.0050. Second support is October's low crossing at 1.0029.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If December resumes the rally off October's low, July's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the July-September decline crossing at 76.68. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 76.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.73. Second support is the October 16th low crossing at 75.47.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at 0.0907 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.0929. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0932. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0918. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.0907.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: December gold was lower overnight while extending the August-November trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the October 1st low, the reaction high crossing at 1543.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1543.30. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1566.20. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1459.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at 1426.60.
December silver was lower overnight while extending October's trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547 is the next downside target. Closes above October's high crossing at 18.350 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 24th high crossing at 18.810. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 16.547. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-rally crossing at 15.859.
December copper was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 270.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 261.56. Second support is the October 1st low crossing at 251.50.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79 would open the door for additional weakness. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 3.98 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.12 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.79. Second support is the September 26th low crossing at 3.68 1/4.
December wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at 5.35. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 5.37. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94. Second support is the September 25th low crossing at 4.76 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 3-cents at 4.23.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-September-declinecrossing at 4.36 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-September-decline crossing at 4.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.10. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.98 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.37 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 24th high crossing at 5.49 3/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.58. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.05 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were lower in overnight trading.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.41 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 9.59 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-October-rally crossing at 9.23 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.17.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.10 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off October's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 314.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at 319.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 301.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 292.00.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, February's high crossing at 32.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 31.41. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 32.06. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.65. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.78.
Thanks tallpine!
Cold blasts have ng testing the September highs.........2.884 ngz, Possible moderation late week 2 as the coldest air will be aimed towards the other side of the North Pole then.
Good rains coming up for dry Brazil areas......bearish grains. US weather cold but favorable for harvest.
Coffee weather mixed. Southern areas get rain, northern areas may stay dry the next 2 weeks.