KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 366.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.6%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 247.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1018.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -3.7%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.6%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +4.1%)
8:15 AM ET. May ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +184000; previous +204000)
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.0%; previous +2.0%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -9.6%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.7%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.8%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. 1st Quarter Preliminary Corporate Profits
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.0%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.2%)
10:00 AM ET. April Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. May Online Help Wanted Index
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
3:00 PM ET. May Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +4.5%)
3:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve Board open meeting on 'Volcker rule' change
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.0M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.3M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Investors continue to assess the risk that Italy’s latest political drama posed to global markets. The Dow will be trying to stabilize after a 392-point drop that was blamed on worries about the potential for another Italian election, with traders worried that a vote could push the country toward dumping the euro and a possible significant shakeup to the status quo. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6829.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off the late-April low, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 6987.87. Second resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6829.75. Second support is May's low crossing at 6538.00.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline, which marked a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2672.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2672.69. Second support is May's low crossing at 2592.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were sharply lower overnight as they consolidate some of Tuesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 147-03 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 142-18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 147-03. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148-18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 142-18. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 140-05.
June T-notes were sharply lower overnight due to profit taking after testing resistance marked by April's high crossing at 121.120. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, February's high crossing at 122.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.126 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 121.120. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 122.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.126. Second support is May's low crossing at 118.105.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: JulyNymex crude oil was steady overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the reaction low crossing at 65.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 70.32 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 72.90. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.19. First support is the reaction low crossing at 65.38. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.73.
July heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 224.75 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 229.87. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.75. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 216.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 211.58.
July unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 209.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 221.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 228.04. Second support is monthly resistance crossing at 248.43. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 212.33. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 209.72.
July Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the Tuesday's decline.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.850 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, January's high crossing at 3.010 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 3.000. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.010. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.850. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.822.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 95.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 94.98. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 95.51. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 93.31. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 92.12.
The June Euro was higher due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 114.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.43. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.25. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 114.66. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.10.
The June British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, last-November's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3486 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3486. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3638. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3215. Second support is last October's low crossing at 1.3148.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.0169 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0169. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0273. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 76.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving averagecrossing at 78.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 76.67. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9273 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9103 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9273. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9393. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9103. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.8956.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1303.40. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1326.30. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1263.70.
July silver was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at 16.865 or below the reaction low crossing at 16.190 are needed to confirm a breakout of this month's trading range and point the direction of the next trending moving. First resistance is May's high crossing at 16.865. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is the reaction low crossing at 16.190. Second support is May's low crossing at 16.070.
June copper was steady to slightly lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 313.65 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 313.65. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is the overnight low crossing at 300.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's key reversal down, triggered by renewed concerns over trade concerns with China. The latest planting progress report showed that 93% of this year's corn crop has been planted up from 81% a week ago and off to a strong start, with 72% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. Corn export inspections topped 67.1 million bushels last week, topping trade estimates that ranged between 55.1 million and 66.9 million bushels. It also beat out the prior week’s total by 11.6%. Marketing year-to-date totals for 2017/18 have reached 1.484 billion bushels. Japan (8.2 million bushels), South Korea (7.8 million bushels) and Mexico (7.6 million bushels) were the top three destinations. However, the low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a possible steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.96 would open the door for a possible test of the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.12 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.96. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4.
July wheat was lower overnight following Tuesday's downside reversal. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.66 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 5.54. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.66 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.16 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.97 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 7 1/2-cents at 5.56 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.74 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of 2017's decline crossing at 5.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.20.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.21 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, last-November's high crossing at 6.69 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 6.51. Second resistance is last-November's high crossing at 6.69 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.21. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.14 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Thursday's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.21 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the late-April high crossing at 10.67 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the late-April high crossing at 10.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.21 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 9.92 1/2.
July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 383.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, April's low crossing at 367.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 391.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 406.50. First support is the late-April low crossing at 373.80. Second support is April's low crossing at 367.00.
July soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 32.19 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.19. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 33.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 30.55. Second support is May's low crossing at 30.15.
Thank you tallpine!
Isn't corn 79% good/Ex rating?
Yes, thanks Jim!
I will post the crop condition report shortly.