Based on the markets muted reaction to the tropical depression and the expectations of some pretty high crop ratings this evening, it must be priced it.
The heat must have the markets attention.
One could make the argument, that corn is bullish no matter what. Declining ES's do not make a bearish market.
"One could make the argument, that corn is bullish no matter what."
You might have a had a tough time convincing the market of that earlier this morning, when after gapping higher last evening and being higher, with a very bullish 6-10/8-14 day..........we dropped lower.
The weather will have a big say but this gap and crap action is most often noted at tops and bottoms...........from exhaustion gaps.
And also in weather markets, where the weather forecast changes.
Grains inspections. Not sure what was expected. Taking a back seat at the moment. Of course China news could cause a spike up or down but weather forecasts are most imporant.
I think the extended guidance this afternoon will have LESS heat and more rain than the last few days.
Beans battling their way back to the plus column, corn about to hit unch.
Too early to be talking about tops or bottoms. With such a dry trend in parts of the country, without this early tropical storm blowing through, we might be having an entirely different conversation this morning.
"Too early to be talking about tops or bottoms. "
This is the timing, the price action, the set up, the reversal, the gap and crap, the seasonal, the potential weather pattern change to be talking about the potential top.
Lastest GFS has tons of rain but then a dome at the end.
The market reaction here is telling us what it thinks of all the rain. As mentioned earlier, look for the NWS extended maps to have MORE rain and less heat this afternoon.
Forecast Hour: 360
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif
Last GFS in 2 weeks.........after tons of rain:
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
According to the web site that Julie had graced us with concerning seasonals, the "turn" doesn't usually happen until later in June.
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_farmprodukte_corn.html
Thanks jim!
That chart supports the top being in this time frame even more.
Seasonals for corn during the growing season are determined by weather. When weather threats peak after the crop is planted is when we top. Every year is different. Today's top might last a few days or it might be "the" top for the Summer......just depends on Summer weather.
The growing season just started so we have a long way to go but the growing season starts out with a lot of risk premium.........that comes out as the crop is made. In most years, the weather is average or better.........and risk premium comes out in spikes lower like today.
Prices only go higher when threats increase.i
Just because we have 2 key months ahead doesn't mean threats will go higher. As the crop is made, day by day, the threat MUST go higher than it was before for the price to make new highs.
A dome in early June can kill the crop if it lasts. A dome in July can hurt the crop bad during pollination but not kill it. A dome in August will cause heat fill and reduce yields.
Please paste the last 2 lines from MetMike.
Heat Heat Heat that's what hurts yields. NOT the lack of rain.
One rain can help down the road but HEAT does the damage.
These seeds can take a lickn nowadays .
times 2 bcb...last year in this area is a prime example.....very dry summer but very cool August saved our corn crop
...just now bought back full position of July N- CHI- SRW @ 5-32 after closing all grain positions last night...
--- Waiting & Seeing For All Other Grains...
.... hhmmmm... that was so much fun that I doubled down on full position and am averaged in @ 5-30 in July SRW...
--- will have a very tight stop in for this one...probably right under 5-25 if it looks pukey...may even reverse to see
5-16 underneath...