Opening calls
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Started by MarkB - May 28, 2018, 4 p.m.

Add to short CD position per top in 60minute chart.

Retrace on crude back up. Look for opportunity to short.

Add to long SB position.

Add to short CO position.

Add to long 10yr Tnotes. Raise stop to 119^12.

Still waiting for confidence in corn, NG, and SI.

Comments
By tar - May 28, 2018, 4:35 p.m.
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I would be very disappointed if we are not 25-30 higher beans 10-15 higher corn here in sw minn very dry very hot! 

By silverspiker - May 28, 2018, 5:23 p.m.
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...LOCK LIMIT UP AS FAR AS I AM CONCERNED IN THE GRAINS...


...MEDICATED GOLD BOND POWDER IS CURRENTLY MELTING BALL BAG AS I TYPE IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA

By mcfarm - May 28, 2018, 6:23 p.m.
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with the mets all really sure this storm tracks into the middle belt I do not see limit moves til a retracement then higher into june 20th...of course we have been disappointed in mets before

By mcfarm - May 28, 2018, 7:36 p.m.
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might want to check the radar out. Seems to be much more activity than advertised. Iowa, Minn, neb , Kansas, Kentucky all getting rain right now

By metmike - May 28, 2018, 9:17 p.m.
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Been in the nursing home with Dad all day.....will have comments late tonight or early Tuesday

By metmike - May 28, 2018, 9:23 p.m.
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The 6-10 day, 8-14 day is extremely bullish but if that was the entire story we would be half the limit higher.

Rains from Alberto in the east this week and rains in the NW belt take away much of the bullish luster. The central belt is short changed though and if rains are light in week 2, the dry spots will really be hurting.


Also the heat ridge backs up in week 2 and temps moderate. This means possible northwest flow and possible ridge riders with rain chances along the periphery of the heat ridge.

Northwest flow situations are tricky. Perturbations in the flow, if active can produce above rains.

If not active or without much upper level dynamics accompanying any surface cold fronts that come thru with drier air and you can have a gradual drying.....and ahead of the fronts a couple of days with intense heat with southwest winds especially in the SW belt.


There will be a major heat ridge with certainty. Location is very uncertain. We've had some model runs that place it far enough into the Cornbelt to be mega bullish. 

Beneath this dome, rain making processes will be defeated by warm air aloft. Outside of this "capped" zone around the edges of the dome there will be chances for rain.


We could see models suddenly shift the dome northeast overnight and it becoming the dome of death dominating much of the belt, with double digit price gains by morning. The gap higher open that is holding, suggests the market is more threatened by this than on Friday.


Orrrr, if models increase the northwest flow and rains, in week 2, and/or add rains in week 1, we could be lower.


By silverspiker - May 28, 2018, 9:47 p.m.
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Thank you very much Mike.

.

I liquidated 3/4 of my longs on the opening and I am putting in very diligent tight stops to protect profits on the last quarter of my position...... slept with one eye open with TS pushing north instead of shearing east... we'll wait to see what happens when it hits jet stream in South Ohio

By Beck - May 29, 2018, 12:08 a.m.
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Dang it, ditched my long corn tickets on the close friday. Not much bull impetus then.  My screen shows N +3.  Shorts are nevous and longs conflicted imho. The story for this crop is not written yet.

By metmike - May 29, 2018, 12:25 a.m.
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silverspiker,

Congrats on your longs and profits!

By metmike - May 29, 2018, 12:54 a.m.
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Rains the next 5 days. IA/MO, w.IL shortchanged, overall a bit bearish.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1527569568

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1527569568



By metmike - May 29, 2018, 12:58 a.m.
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Extended NWS.........pretty bullish but maybe overly bullish?


  


  
 analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  





By metmike - May 29, 2018, 7:13 a.m.
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Still holding the gaps higher from last nights open, here at 6am.


Latest GFS has some active storm clusters around the heat ridge mentioned last evening during week 2.

Ring of fire type action.

But the heat ridge is still a legit threat, especially in the southwest belt.

By metmike - May 29, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Crashing lower since the last GFS came out.

This was total 2 week precip on the last GFS. Liikely overdone but it shows what can happen with northwest to southeast flow....around the periphery of a heat ridge:


Forecast Hour:  384
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/namer/precip_ptot/gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif