Grains
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Started by metmike - May 25, 2018, 10:21 a.m.

If you go to the weather post,  you will see the incredible disparity in run to run model  output during the week 2 period..........going from the "dome of death" in 1 run(with record heat and now rain), then the "trough of life"(with only a brief shot of modest heat then mild temps and a good rain chance) in the next one.


It's Friday before the long  Memorial Day weekend. If the weather maps are changing their mind every 6 hours(time between each run) on week 2 weather from 1 extreme to the other, then you can imagine the weather risk right now from both sides, when the market will be closed for  days.

If one of the extremes is the correct solution and you have a large position on, then the open early next week will make you alot of money or cost you a bunch of money. 

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Re: Grains
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By Beck - May 25, 2018, 11:29 a.m.
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I went long July corn this morning. If it shows any strength near the close I'll buy $4 puts to backstop it. If weakness near the close then close out position.

Come Tuesday the models could still be conflicted. I can't imagine a season without one good scare.

Re: Re: Grains
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By Jim_M - May 25, 2018, 12:02 p.m.
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Time for noon maps!    

By bcb - May 25, 2018, 1:06 p.m.
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Remember  Tuesday afternoon the 1st crop conditions. Last yr the 1st for corn the G/E was 65%.

IMHO we should be 70%

By metmike - May 25, 2018, 1:18 p.m.
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Thanks bcb,

he biggest risk that I see is that tropical system Alberto tracks farther northwest and dumps a ton of rain on the IL/IN dry spots.

What happens on the current projected path, is that it actually suppresses rains because, just outside the periphery of the rains and the associated rising air, is descending air that has the opposite effect..........with a sharp boundary from heavy rains southeast to no rains northwest.

The boundary of heavy rains looks like it will be south of the Ohio River, which means very little rain in IL/IN/MO when that system is tracking farther southeast next week.


After that, we are into the week 2 with enormous uncertainty.

    



The new 12Z GFS does not have a dome in week 2. Strong system, with a couple of cold fronts come thru early in the period but does not break out that much rain in the dry spots.

Maps at day 10:

      

gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_240_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_240_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_240_850_temp_ht_s.gif




Total rains the next 2 weeks on this run of the GFS. Still pretty skinny in the dry areas..........but good rains surrounding that and no major heat ridge that would suppress rains on this solution. So rains could go up in the dry spots. 

   

gfs_namer_384_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - May 25, 2018, 1:40 p.m.
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CFS model for weeks 3 and 4 has an impressive dome in the Plains to WCB with intense heat:

heatheat.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif


Dry in week  3 below,  rains maybe in week 4

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif