INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 19, 2019, 7:24 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, September 19, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (expected 10.0; previous 16.8)

 



 

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 12.8)

 



 

 

                       Employment (previous 3.6)

 



 

 

                       New Orders (previous 25.8)

 



 

 

                       Prices Received (previous 13.0)

 



 

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 9.3)

 



 

 

                       Inventories (previous 8.7)

 



 

 

                       Shipments (previous 19.0)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions

 



 

 

                       Current Account (USD) (expected -131.2B; previous -130.40B)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 204K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1670000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 498.1K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1172.2K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 602.8K)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (expected 5.36M; previous 5.42M)

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -1.1%; previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.2)

 



 

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 80,800)

 



 

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Leading Indicators

 



 

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Leading Index (previous 112.2)

 



 

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3019B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +78B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, September 20, 2019

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Regional & State Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

Monday, September 23, 2019  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous -0.36)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.14)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.9)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 50.9)

 

                       
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The December NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7780.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 8175.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 8002.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8175.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7780.39. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at 7353.25.



The December S&P 500 was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 3029.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2954.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3025.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3029.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2981.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2954.29.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend the rebound off last-Friday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 160-15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-24. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 157-17. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August-rally crossing at 155-27.



December T-notes were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.224 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 127.171 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 129.253. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.224. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 128.160. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September-rally crossing at 127.171. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



October crude oil was higher in late-overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 63.87 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 63.38. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 63.87. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.00. Second support is September's low crossing at 52.84.  



October heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 214.81 the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 209.99. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 214.81. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.13. Second support is September's low crossing at 177.70. 



October unleaded gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 179.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 151.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 177.85. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 179.62. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 151.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 144.75.



October Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.763 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.439 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.710. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.763. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.603. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.439.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 97.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 98.67. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 98.90. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 97.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.42.  



The December Euro was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.22 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.22. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 113.55. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 110.02. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.    



The December British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2595 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2362 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.2570. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September-decline crossing at 1.2595. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2362. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.



The December Swiss Franc was sharply higher overnight and is working on a potential key reversal up. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0059 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0215 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0215. Second resistance is the September 4th reaction high crossing at 1.0298. First support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0114. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1.0059.



The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.81 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is the July 31st high crossing at 76.40. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 75.22. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 0.0924 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0941 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0941. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.0927. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1484.00 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If October resumes the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1484.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 1406.40.



December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.247 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.192 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 decline crossing at 19.803. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.247. Second support is the August 13th reaction low crossing at 16.650. 



December copper was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 259.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 280.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 280.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 259.93. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.     



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.77 are needed to signaling that the short-term trend is turning neutral to bullish. If December resumes the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.94 1/4. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 3.52 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.    



December wheat was higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.88 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off September's low. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.75 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.88 1/4. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.75 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.50 1/2.   



December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/2-cents at 4.09 3/4.

 

December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 4.09 1/2 opened the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/2. If December renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 3.81. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4.  



December Minneapolis wheat was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.21 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.80 1/4.



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans were steady to fractionally lower in overnight trading.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.73 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 9.04 3/4. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.83 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.73 1/2.  



December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 302.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 302.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. First support is September's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.   



December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.90 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off last-Monday's low, the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 30.41. Second resistance level is the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 30.79. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 29.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.90. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



October hogs closed up $0.83 at $62.93. 



October hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, August's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.30. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.  



October cattle closed up $1.03 at 100.38. 



October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 101.68 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 83.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.68. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 103.36. First support is September's low crossing at 93.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 83.42. 

 

October Feeder cattle closed up $1.10 at $138.40. 



October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 136.94 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the  rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 140.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 140.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is September's low crossing at 127.95. Second support is August's low crossing at 127.32.     



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target.     



December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 24.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



October sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.11 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.12 is the next downside target. 



December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.48 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 64.62 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 19, 2019, 2:36 p.m.
Like Reply

thanks tallpine!

Still very warm temps and no freeze threat to the grains. 

Warmth getting too late to save natural gas, which has topped. EIA was very bearish.

Rains still coming to coffee country in Minas Gerais.