KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, September 19, 2019
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 10.0; previous 16.8)
Prices Paid (previous 12.8)
Employment (previous 3.6)
New Orders (previous 25.8)
Prices Received (previous 13.0)
Delivery Times (previous 9.3)
Inventories (previous 8.7)
Shipments (previous 19.0)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -131.2B; previous -130.40B)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 204K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -15K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1670000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 498.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1172.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 602.8K)
9:30 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. August Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.36M; previous 5.42M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -1.1%; previous +2.5%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.2)
Median Price (USD) (previous 80,800)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.3%)
10:00 AM ET. August Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.2%; previous +0.5%)
Leading Index (previous 112.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3019B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +78B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 20, 2019
10:00 AM ET. August Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
Monday, September 23, 2019
8:30 AM ET. August CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous -0.36)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.14)
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.9)
9:45 AM ET. September US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.9)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The December NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off the August 26th low, July's high crossing at 8071.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7774.69 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 8002.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 8071.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7774.69. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at 7390.00.
The December S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 3027.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2950.59 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3025.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3027.50. First support is today's low crossing at 2981.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2950.59.
The Dow posted a key reversal up and closed higher on Wednesday after Federal Reserve lowered their main interest rate by a quarter point for a second time this year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the rally off August's low, July's high crossing at 27,398.68. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,559.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 27,306.73. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 27,398.68. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 26,617.39. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 26,559.00.
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December T-bonds closed up 15/32's at 159-28.
December T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-31 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 155-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 160-28. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 162-31. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 157-18. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 155-27.
December T-notes closed down 30-pts. At 129.090.
December T-notes closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day bounce off last-Friday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.251 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 127.171. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129.284. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130.251. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 128.190. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at 127.171.
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October crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended Tuesday's decline following news that Saudi's Aramco said it had revived 41% of capacity at a key crude-processing complex days after a devastating aerial attack that wrecked vital equipment and rocked global energy markets.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October resumes the rally off August's low, April's high crossing at 65.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 63.38. Second resistance is the April's high crossing at 65.62. First support last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.00. Second support is August's low crossing at 50.50.
October heating oil closed lower on Wednesday following Tuesday's key reversal down as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, May's high crossing at 214.81 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 209.99. Second resistance is the May's high crossing at 214.81. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.13. Second support is September's low crossing at 177.70.
October unleaded gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September, July's high crossing at 179.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 151.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 179.62. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 182.13. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 151.56. Second support is September's low crossing at 144.75.
October Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday following yesterday's key reversal down signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 2.763 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.417 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.710. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing near 2.763. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.583. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.417.
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The December Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 97.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off June's low, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 98.90. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 97.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 97.39.
The December Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 111.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 109.21 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's crossing at 114.41. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 110.02. Second support is monthly support crossing at 109.21.
The December British Pound posted an inside day with a lower closed Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2592 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2347 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.2570. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the February-September decline crossing at 1.2592. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2347. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.2008.
The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday and below the 75% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 1.0114. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 1.0059 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0221 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0221. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.0298. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0095. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-August-rally crossing at 1.0059.
The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Tuesday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-week's high, September's low crossing at 74.84 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.84 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is September's high crossing at 76.23. Second resistance is the July 31st reaction high crossing at 76.37. First support is today's low crossing at 75.22. Second support is September's low crossing at 74.84.
The December Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, August's low crossing at 0.0918 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0942 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0934. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0942. First support is today's low crossing 0.0928. Second support is August's low crossing at 0.0924.
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October gold closed lower on Wednesday and below the May-August uptrend line to test the 50-day moving average crossing at 1482.40. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1482.40 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If October renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1559.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1588.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1482.40. Second support is August's low crossing at 1406.40.
December silver closed lower on Wednesday ending a two-day bounce off last-Friday's low. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.200 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.167 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.167. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 19.750. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 17.470. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 17.199.
December copper closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 259.82 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 273.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 270.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 273.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 259.82. Second support is September's low crossing at 248.20.
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December Corn closed up 3 3/4-cents at 3.71 3/4.
December corn closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the August 29th reaction high crossing at 3.77 would mark a close above the previous reaction high thereby signaling that the short-term trend has turned neutral to bullish and at the same time opening the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/2. If December resumes the decline off July's high, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 29th reaction high crossing at 3.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.95 1/2. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 3.52 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
December wheat closed up 5 1/4-cents at 4.89 1/2.
December wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.88 3/4 has opened the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4 in the near-future. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.92 1/2. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.06 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.50 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 7 1/2-cents at 4.09 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 4.09 1/2 opened the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/2. If December renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.24 1/2. First support is September's low crossing at 3.81. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 6 3/4-cents at 5.13 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, The 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 4.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.14 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.22. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.04. Second support is September's low crossing at 4.86 1/2.
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November soybeans closed down 4 3/4-cents at 8.89.
November soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.72 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If November extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 9.24 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 9.04 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.24. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.72 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-June-rally crossing at 8.48 1/2.
December soybean meal closed down $2.10 at 295.70.
December soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 303.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 303.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 306.30. First support is September's low crossing at 292.00. Second support is May's low crossing at 291.60.
December soybean oil closed down 6-pt. at 29.98.
December soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's rally, the 75% retracement level of the February-May decline crossing at 30.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.87 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 30.41. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 30.79. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.87.
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October hogs closed up $0.83 at $62.93.
October hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews the decline off July's high, August's low crossing at 59.30 is the next downside target. If October resumes the rally off August's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.30. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 70.83. First support is August's low crossing at 59.30. Second support the July-2018 low crossing at 58.20.
October cattle closed up $1.03 at 100.38.
October cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 101.68 is the next upside target. If October renews the decline off July's high, weekly support crossing at 83.42 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 101.68. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 103.36. First support is September's low crossing at 93.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 83.42.
October Feeder cattle closed up $1.10 at $138.40.
October Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 136.94 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off September's low, the reaction high crossing at 140.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.32 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 140.30. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 144.43. First support is September's low crossing at 127.95. Second support is August's low crossing at 127.32.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of the July-August-decline crossing at 10.64 is the next upside target.
December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-August decline crossing at 24.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
October sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.11 would confirm that a low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.12 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.48 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 64.62 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine.
No freeze threat for the grains.
Still very warm for natural gas.
First rainy season rains for coffee to trigger early season flowering in week 2.