Overnight, the GFS is showing some extreme solutions.
The 0Z model showed an impressive heat ridge building in as week 2 progresses, with record heat. This is the first 2 maps below. THe next., 06Z run shows a deep upper level low being carved out instead, with record cold. The 2nd 2 maps below:
Day 10 European model has an impressive heat ridge
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Rains keep getting skinnier as we go into the predicted drier pattern:
Not much rain from c.IA across the central and eastern Cornbelt in the 7 day total rain forecast:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1526397762
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit %normal.
Note all the dry pockets for % normal over the past 14 days, especially in IL/IN. Rain makes grain now and lack of rain will be bullish, more rain bearish in the forecasts.
Keep in mind that this rally has dialed in alot of the developing dryness and the risks of the heat ridge in week 2.
To keep going higher with confidence, we need the heat ridge in week 2 to look more impressive. If the market thinks it will define the new pattern in June, we will soar to new highs. If the market thinks its transitory and to be followed by cooler and especially wetter weather, the highs will be in.
Thanks for the weather update Mike. If nothing else, some nice warm weather to look forward to for the next couple weeks.
