Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 9:57 a.m.

Happy 34th Anniversary + 16 days to my wonderful wife(who says that you can't celebrate it every day!   Or keep celebrating the Integral Heart Family's record breaking fund raising last month for their wonderful children:

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.

Not as much rain in the forecast(much of it has fallen) so we are drier. Not as cool but no sustained heat. Overall on the bearish side.

Tariff news has been more important recently.

 Crop ratings dropped 1% for corn and beans last Monday but there were decent rains over the last week. The increase in beneficial CO2 continues to result in crops doing much better than expected.

Temperatures continue to look bit cool in the Midsection........but moderating closer to average. There will be enough heat to generate significant cooling demand in some places.

Frost threat is nonexistent but is being monitored.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



 Current Weather Map

NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop
NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion
NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion


Understanding These Maps
Surface Map Legend
Precip Legend
NCEP Surface Maps

U.S. Surface Analysis
National Radar Image
12-Hr Forecast
24-Hr Forecast
36-Hr Forecast
48-Hr Forecast
Short Term Loop
Day 3 Forecast
Day 4 Forecast
Day 5 Forecast
Day 6 Forecast
Day 7 Forecast
Low Tracks Error Circle
Low Tracks Ensemble

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Current Temperatures Map

US Weather Heat Index Map

      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:12 a.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.

Very cool in the Midwest by August standards!!

Heat in the Southwest to West Coast.


By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:13 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Hot in the west. Very cool NorthCentral for highs.


By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:14 a.m.
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We have passed the peak in Summer temperatures based on climatological/historical averages by OVER  a month now.

The heat during this period will be in the West. Close to average Midwest/East but cool daytime temps NorthCentral.

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:17 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

Reinforcing cold front with rain chances. Starting to dry out a bit in some places(really not a big problem and its late in the growing season now)

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:19 a.m.
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By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:20 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:22 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

A bit humid air up to the Ohio River today.........feeding the clouds. 

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:22 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

A big chunk of the central and eastern Cornbelt  finally got some many spots, not everywhere.

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:23 a.m.
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Latest: The first map below is the latest. The 2nd one is from last week. Note another increase in drought across a few spots in the central and eastern Cornbelt on the latest map but improvement in other spots from great rains.

In july/August, it's typical to see some increase in drought because of heat  being a factor in evaporation, seasonally exceeding low rainfall during this month.

The amount of drought on THIS week's update will shrink a bit because of recent rains.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).

  •               Drought Monitor for conus               

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:27 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Saturday: Strong, zonal  Jet stream continues to shift south, suppressing the heat ridge even farther south.............but that's on the mean. The solutions that go into this are completely different but the opposite patterns average out to this mean. 

Sunday: 12z run. Interesting changes happening at the end of 2 weeks. Buckling jet stream potential. The 0z run suppressed the jet stream farther south, with the heat ridge pushed in that direction.........a recent trend. This last run, however, buckles the jet stream out West, into a deep trough on several solutions, which amplifies an upper level ridge in the East......much warmer. Other models have something closer to the opposite of this, so this run of the Canadian ensemble model will be taken with a grain of salt.

Monday:  This model has more heat ridge in the Southeast to points northwest of that than the other models.

Tuesday: Still some heat ridge in the Southeast but the strong flow/jet stream farther north (active storm track) continues to sink a bit farther south.

Wednesday: Same trend. Heat ridge being suppressed on the mean, with strong jet stream sinking south..............but  a couple of solutions want to buckle the jet farther west and amplify the heat ridge east.

Thursday: Huge disparity in location of where the strong jet stream will buckle(that carves out a deep trough which extends from much of Canada, into the US)!!! The solutions that do it farther west pump up a heat ridge in the East. Those that do it farther east, have the upper level trough in the East. The Canadian model has more ridging in the east (and south) than some the other models also vs its solution yesterday.

Friday: 12z run. Interesting to note the heat ridge on so many members in the Southcentral to Southeast US. Some wild solutions in Canada with a full latitude, major league upper level low/trough that extends south into the US. A much more pronounced northern stream could evolve out of this feature if the upper level ridging in far Western North America allows for more amplification downstream. That would be the first indicator for a legit major freeze threat with the right positions of those features..............but there can be no freeze without a ridge west/trough digging south downstream configuration/couplet. 

Saturday: Big change again in the heat ridge. Much more suppressed today with a trough in the Midwest to just eastward. But thats just the ensemble average. The individual solutions show massive disparity. A minority have a huge heat ridge in the east. All depends on where the deep upper level trough in Canada extends south into the US at.

Sunday: Location of upper level trough?? For sure in Canada with a strong jet stream underneath. Heat ridge to its south and east in the US......probably.

Monday: Heat ridge in the Southeast is stronger today.......carried on a couple more solutions and a slight majority.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Sep 10, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:32 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Friday: Huge change. Strong jet stream along the border is shown "buckling" into a trough in the Northcentral US area.  Heat ridge suppressed, almost out of the picture.

Saturday: Some solutions continue to buckle the strong jet stream, digging it south of the Great Lakes, carving out a deep trough. Some less amplified and a few disagree completely. 

Sunday: One position for buckling jet stream created trough is around the Great Lakes to maybe the Hudson Bay but huge uncertainty for this period.

Monday: Wide spread in solutions. Maybe an upper level trough in the middle? Not much confidence.

Tuesday: Upper level trough in the center of the country with more agreement, though location still varies, probably based on differences in speed of systems. 

Wednesday: Upper level trough extending from Canada to Central US, heat ridge still in the far Southeast.

Thursday: Where will the deep trough in Canada  and associated strong jet stream into at least the northern tier of the US be? Potential heat ridge farther south of this feature if it would stay west or track zonally along the US border.  Solutions here strongly favor a buckling of the jet deeply into the central of the country.

Friday: How deeply into the US will the big trough in Canada penetrate? Where will this be at? Northcentral US looks likes the most likely. 

Saturday: Preferred position for the big upper level trough today is around the Hudson Bay in Canada, extending pretty far south across the US border.

Sunday: Not clear. Upper level trough in Canada, strong jet underneath, potential heat ridge somewhere in the US.

Monday: Upper level ridging, maybe in the Southeast. No longer the pronounced troughing in the N/C US.  Not as cool as last weeks maps.

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:35 a.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Saturday: Center for the positive anomaly is now in SW Canada to just off the coast to the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream negative anomaly centered in the Great Lakes. This is usually a pretty good couplet for cool temperatures in the Midwest. 

Sunday: Weaker positive anomaly off the West Coast of North America, weak negative anomaly around the Midwest.  Not a strong signal for heat but neither is it especially cool.

Monday: The only significant anomaly is a positive one off the Pac NW Coast.  Otherwise, near average and nothing strong to key off of.  Probably a strong jet stream along the northern tier. 

Tuesday:  Positive anomaly again is off the Pac NW Coast. Slightly below average heights and cyclonic flow in the center of the wet and cool.

Wednesday: Same as Tuesday. Positive anomaly off Pac NW Coast, modest positives along the East Coast, negative with trough in the middle of the country where is would be wet and cool.

Thursday: Similar to Wednesday. Positive anomaly off the Pac NW Coast. Negative anomaly from Hudson Bay, extended to a weakness in the Midwest. Slight positive in the Southeast, possible ridging ahead of the deep trough.

Friday: Still the modest positive anomaly off the Pac Northwest Coast. Upper trough to the east has so many variations, that it doesn't show up with that big of a negative departure in 500 mb heights average in any one place. 

Saturday: Modest positive anomaly but growing/extensive all the way north across North America........modest negative anomaly downstream from north of the Hudson Bay, southward. If these anomalies increase in magnitude, they would make for a nice couplet to deliver northern stream driven cold waves southward after the first week in September. 

Sunday: Yesterdays couplet is gone. Slight negative anomaly sw Canada. Modest positive anomalies US, downstream so probably warming up in the middle of the country. 

Monday:  Similar to Sunday. No strong anomaly disparities to key off of.  Maybe just zonal flow across the US, especially northern half and not as cool in the Midwest as recent week 2 maps. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:38 a.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Sunday: AO and NAO close to or just below 0. PNA drops to near 0. No help on providing powerful clues. 

Monday:  AO and NAO close to just below 0. PNA drops to near 0 from positive. No good clues.

Tuesday: AO and PNA close to 0. NAO a tad negative, favors cool in the Midwest.

Wednesday: All close enough to 0 for no clues.

Thursday: Changes. AO still near 0. Now we have a huge disparity/spread in the NAO at the end of 2 weeks because the pattern is very sensitive to where the trough/ridge couplet sets up from Canada to the US and points eastward and there is great disagreement on this. PNA increases, which favors the trough east and cool weather.

Friday: Today, all the indices are near 0, so no big help. 

Saturday: AO and NAO near 0. PNA a bit positive at the end of 2 weeks. 

Sunday: AO near 0. NAO drops just below 0 very late. PNA gyrating above 0.

Monday: No strong signal or suggestion of anomalous type weather.

By metmike - Aug. 26, 2019, 10:41 a.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment. 

Last Monday: Wet again with near normal temps to cool in the center and heat out West. Possible heat SouthEast too.

Tuesday: Wet again and cool in the middle. Some tools suggest very cool but not early freeze territory.

Wednesday: Wet again and very cool in the middle. A bit early in the year for a freeze but the Plains to Upper Midwest may have some 30's.

Thursday: Should be pretty wet(rains dry up in the 8-14 day period) and very cool in the middle and again, temps chilly enough for some 30's at the end of week 1 and start of week 2 in the Plains to Upper Midwest. How much warmth along the East Coast. The West Coast looks very warm to hot.

Friday: We should be drying out in many places. Temps remaining cool in the middle(but not as cool as week 2 progresses) with some heat around the edges.

Saturday: Still cool in the center and drying out in some places.

Sunday: Still cool but NOT AS cool, in fact, closer to average Midwest by the end of week 2. 6-10 day is on the dry side but then more rains possible again.

Monday: Not as cool, closer to average Midwest? Fairly dry in the 6-10 day.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


the 8-14 day outlooks
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Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability