KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 16, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 387.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.4%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 257.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1098.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.6%)
8:30 AM ET. April New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.30M; previous 1.319M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -1.4%; previous +1.9%)
Building Permits (expected 1.35M; previous 1.354M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -0.3%; previous +2.5%)
9:15 AM ET. April Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.6%; previous +0.5%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.4%; previous 78.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.3)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 433.758M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -0.4M; previous -2.197M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 235.804M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -1.2M; previous -2.174M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 115.038M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (expected -1.4M; previous -3.791M)
Refinery Usage (expected 90.8%; previous 90.4%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.548M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.384M)
Thursday, May 17, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 785.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 632.6K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 83.4K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 211K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +0K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1790000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +30K)
8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 20.5; previous 23.2)
Prices Paid (previous 56.4)
Employment (previous 27.1)
New Orders (previous 18.4)
Prices Received (previous 29.8)
Delivery Times (previous 20.7)
Inventories (previous 9.5)
Shipments (previous 23.9)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:00 AM ET. April Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.4%; previous +0.3%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q1 Household Debt and Credit Report
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1432B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +89B)
1:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, May 18, 2018
10:00 AM ET. April Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight after it suffered a sizable drop on Tuesday, as the Dow ended an eight-session winning streak. Never-the-less the equity markets have scored significant gains so far this month, but appear to struggle for direction on today with fresh North Korea worries weighing on the market. North Korea signaled its leader, Kim Jong Un, might pull out of next month's summit with President Donald Trump if the U.S. insists on denuclearization for the isolated nation. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6761.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off the late-April low, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 6987.87. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6761.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 6538.00.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2675.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is May's low crossing at 2592.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's huge decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 140-03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-02. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 140-26. Second support is monthly support crossing at 140-03.
June T-notes were slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's huge loss. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.020 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.020. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.180. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 118.165. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five years.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 71.92. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.03.
June heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 227.21. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 216.30. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 205.53.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 248.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 213.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 222.26. Second support is monthly resistance crossing at 248.43. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 213.13. Second support is May's low crossing at 205.29.
June Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.769 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally, March's high crossing at 2.873 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.864. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.769. Second support is May's low crossing at 2.695.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 94.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.93 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 93.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 94.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.46.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, last-November low crossing at 117.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.63. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.68. First support is the overnight low crossing at 118.08. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 117.35.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3723 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3638. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3723. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.3470. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3148.
The June Swiss Franc were slightly lower overnight as it extend the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0105 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0105. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0372. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 76.99 would renew the decline off April's high.If June resumes the rally off last Tuesday's low, April's high crossing at 79.92 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 76.99. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9181 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9181. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9339. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9072. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1317.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1317.10. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1263.70.
July silver was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 16.070 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.587 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 16.865. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is May's low crossing at 16.070. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.805.
June copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 311.95 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 311.95. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 300.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.94 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4. First resistance is May's high crossing at 4.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.94 3/4. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4.
July wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If July extends the decline off May's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.87 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.08 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. First support is the reaction low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed unchanged at 5.09 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed unchanged on Tuesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.35 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.02 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.94 3/4.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.13 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4 is a potential downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 6.30 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the two-sided trading of the past two weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.42 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10.01 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2.
July soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 373.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 386.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 391.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 406.50. First support is the late-April low crossing at 373.80. Second support is April's low crossing at 367.00.
July soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.61 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.61. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.19. First support is April's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35.
Thanks tallpine!