Wednesday Weather
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Started by metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:39 a.m.

Happy July 24th!  Do something to make somebody feel lucky today! Congrats to the Integral Heart Family on raising massive funds for their "lucky" children:

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.

Wednesday update:

We continue to trade: "Rain makes Grain"(hot and dry are bullish).

The heat ridge has retrograded(backed up westward) this much cooler right now than last week............similar to market expectation but the heat ridge looks like it will be staying farther west today in early August compared to yesterday.

Forecasts are cooler on the latest US model than the ones earlier this week. Looks like there might be decent rains on some models but this pattern historicall and some guidance suggests that we could be going into a drier period.

Here are the latest hazards across the country.

Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     



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      Wind map     Press down on this on the left with your cursor!




Current Jet Stream

Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning


By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:41 a.m.
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Highs today and tomorrow.

Much line with last weeks forecasts of  below average temps to start the work week.


By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:41 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

Heating back up but not as hot as last week/weekend.

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:43 a.m.
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Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below

Heat ridge is out West early  this week but some of the heat spreads east late week but may retreat west again after that. The South will be coolest compared to average.

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:47 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below

 Canadian high pressure early this week. ................warming up with southerly winds later in the week on the back side, while staying dry in most of the Cornbelt........then rains with a cold front late this weekend into early next week N.Plains to Upper Midwest, shifting south next week. Amount of rains are uncertain.

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:48 a.m.
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Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.

Rains return northwest belt late this weekend, then farther south next week but don't look very robust.

Day 1 below:

Day 2 below:

Day 3 below

Days 4-5 below:

 Days 6-7 below:

7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:49 a.m.
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Risk of excessive rains.

LOW risk for the rest of the week.

   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  

  Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts 
Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19


Day 2 Threat Area in Text Format 


Current Day 3 ForecastCurrent Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:51 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk

Slight risk along the northern tier. 

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri
Issued: 20/1624Z
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms        
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0546Z
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Broyles
Issued: 20/0711Z
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:52 a.m.
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Last 24 hour precip top map

Last 7 day precip below that

Central IA and Northern/Central  IL missed recent rains.

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:53 a.m.
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Current Dew Points

Refreshingly pleasant air with VERY  low humidity is widespread!

Current Dew Points


Latest radar loop

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop


 (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
Go to: Most Recent Image


Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image


    You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:

                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      



Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 

Some spots in Iowa and especially N/C Illinois have dried out!

Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:54 a.m.
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Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).

Parts of Iowa has dried out, along with parts of the central and eastern belt, especially N/C Illinois.

      Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:54 a.m.
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Currently, there is still 0%  of the  main Cornbelt/Midwest with long term drought.........but it's been very dry along the Canadian border. There is drought in the Southeast. 

Short term dryness is becoming an issue is some spots that might result in a bit of long term drought (flash drought)  later this Summer if rains don't pick up in the extended period.

The map below is updated on Thursdays.

 The market has turned into a rain makes grain market( any hot/dry in the forecast will be considered as bullish for the next month+).

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 11:58 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average,  the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.


Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:

Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!

Last Sunday: 12z run. Changes from the last several days continue...............heat ridge shifting west and weakening now. Troughing downstream in the East, back to the Midwest means the heat will be giving way to much cooler air during the last week of July. Half the solutions have this trough very deep........enough to cause much below temperatures if they are correct.

Monday: This model, in contrast to the other ones overnight is actually warmer and drier, with the heat ridge trying to come back east and bumping out the upper level trough in the East (which will bring down cool air) on around half of the solutions.

Tuesday:  Midwest to Northeast trough a bit deeper today, so more cooling. Heat ridge in the S.Plains.

Wednesday: Almost a carbon copy of yesterday!

Sunday: Welcome back metmike! After retrograding west in week 1(as was predicted and anticipated by the market last week,  Heat ridge is trying to build back east during week 2.........actually starting  late in week 1. 

Monday: Where will the heat ridge be? This model like the idea of the Southwest to Southern Plains for the center of it but with a wide spread in solutions.

Tuesday: Very similar to Monday.

Wednesday: Mean ridge position farther west today, more troughing east but with a few that disagree.

360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 08, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 12:01 p.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:

Last Monday: Deep trough/cut off low far sw Canada with a downstream heat ridge.......extremely impressive. This was the 0z model.  The last run of the US model took out all this heat and the other models added rains in week 2 which has taken out much of the bullish gusto from Sunday evening.

Tuesday: Where will the HUGE heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?

Wednesday: Massive heat ridge in week 2. Best location is the middle of the country on this model but uncertain.

Thursday: Massive heat ridge. Will it back up towards the west a bit late in week 2?

Friday: Potential for the massive heat ridge to back up west and allow some northern stream cooling to the east but solutions are going back and forth on this. It's a dry pattern for most of the Corn, regardless.

Saturday: This model also is not sure about the location of the dome of upper level high pressure, favoring the Rockies to points southeast with a potential downstream upper level trough in the Northeast.

Sunday: Upper ridging is rebuilding in Central Canada and connecting to downstream troughing below it that may extend all the way into the Upper Midwest/Northeast. This means MUCH cooler air masses from Canada. Heat ridge backs to the southwest of the position it will be in later this week.

Monday: Most have the ridge/West, trough/East couplet that means cool temps. The last  runs also increased rains with this pattern that can often be fairly dry.

Tuesday: Deep trough in the Northeast means cool Midwest.

Wednesday: Bigger spread on this model vs Tuesday, with a few(minority) bringing the heat ridge east.

Sunday: Wide spread on the location of the heat ridge as week 2 progresses.......and the location of a potential upper level trough  that might be forced to stay in Canada if the heat ridge bullies its way far enough east.

Monday: Heat ridge out far east can it expand with its heat and how much upper troughing/cooling downstream might try to interfere with that heat in the Northeast.

Tuesday: Northern stream in Canada getting active. How much influence will it have south of the border with cold fronts/how far south will they go?

Wednesday:  Ridge West, trough east couplet looking much more obvious for early August..................cooler and possibly on the dry side.

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 12:03 p.m.
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GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above).  The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.

Last Sunday: Huge change in the positive anomaly center with it massively growing from yesterday in NorthCentral Canada. Weak negative anomaly below it in southeast Canada to  around the Great Lake links up to some potential northern stream cold fronts. 

Monday: Looks just like Sunday. Positive anomaly N/C Canada extending to W USA with a weak negative anomaly from SE Canada to the Eastern 1/3 of the US that translates to a potential connection with some cooler air from Canada. 

Tuesday: Same big positive anomaly in N/C Canada coupled with negative anomaly in the Northeast for cool air delivery south of the border.

Wednesday: Positive anomaly center shifted to NW Canada but positive in the Western US and weakness downstream suggest cool temps............possibly dry. Potential building heights from the W.Atlantic to the East Coast which might bring hot weather back to the East in less than 2 weeks.

Sunday: Welcome back metmike!  Positive anomaly heights across the northern tier strongly supports heat. Negative heats in the south favors less heat for this time of year. This is sometimes a dry-ish pattern but the models like the idea of average to above average rains in week 2. 

Monday: Band of positive anomalies across the northern tier means very warm temps have a good chance to spread across the country in that location. Very weak negative anomaly in the deep south suggest less heat there.

Tuesday: The change from yesterday is the significant negative anomaly in Southeast Canada. This is associated with an upper level trough which will modulate cold fronts driven south into the Midwest and is also the reason for the forecast to be wet. Take that feature away, and the heat ridge would be more powerful/be able to expand farther northeast. 

Wednesday: Positive anomaly stands out west, with modest negative anomaly in the Midwest/East suggest couplet which means heat West, cooler downstream in the Midwest to East. 

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast

NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 12:07 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them...............mainly where they stand at the end of 2 weeks.

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.

Last Sunday: AO a smidgen below  0, PNA bouncing around but I think the noteworthy indices here is the negative NAO which will be associated with the trough in the East which causes the cooler weather later in July. 

Monday: AO is near 0, maybe a tad less. NAO is negative with the trough in the east and favors cooler temperatures. PNA is also negative but unstable with some uncertainty in the West.

Tuesday: AO near 0. Negative NAO means cool. Negative but gyrating to 0 PNA, some uncertainty out west. 

Wednesday: AO near 0. Huge change in NAO, which is pretty positive in week 2 vs negative previously. Might an upper level ridge try to build along the East Coast???PNA wildly fluctuating around 0. 

Sunday: Welcome back metmike! AO close to 0. NAO slightly negative. PNA wildly gyrating still and favoring positive with the exact  location of the heat ridge in the West playing a role.

Monday: AO around 0. NAO around 0 but with a wide spread because of uncertainty with a potential trough in the Northeast......or no trough. PNA gyrating from positive to near 0.

Tuesday: AO near 0. NAO a bit negative with the potential upper level trough in Southeast Canada meaning a factor. PNA has an extremely wide spread, much uncertainty out West.

Wednesday: AO negative. NAO being negative is connected to the trough in the East and a factor in a cooler to even much cooler outlook late in week 2. PNA still fluctuating wildly but near 0 at the end of 2 weeks.

By metmike - July 24, 2019, 12:08 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.

My comments below are usually made hours before the afternoon update, starting with the oldest comment. 


Sunday: Confidence getting pretty high for the pattern change to cooler. This will definitely show up with  gusto in the 8-14 day forecasts for the next few days, then the 6-10 day, possibly catching some of it later today.  How much rain during that period. Good question. The air masses coming from Canada may not have deep moisture but this pattern in July can be dry or turn much wetter, depending on where upper level troughing sets up in the Midwest to points east.

Monday: Continuing to cool into the 6-10 day period now as the change to the heat ridge shifting west gets closer. How much rain to put in the forecast? The last few days, the case was strong for it to be dry. Today, much of the guidance is a bit wetter than before but not all of it.  Rain amounts for the periods below are very uncertain.

Tuesday: Cooler again for sure. The case to increase rains is going up.

Wednesday: Hot West, cool East again, maybe dry Midwest with very low confidence. At the end of 2 weeks, the pattern could morph to ridge building East.......just a chance of that on a few solutions this morning and that won't show us in the NWS forecasts this afternoon.

Sunday: Welcome back metmike: The new location of the heat will be in the northern half of the US, as the heat continues out West but spreads east across the country. Below temps favored in the South. How much rain is the huge question. One factor modulating rains will be the location of the center of the heat ridge. Will it allow fronts on the east side?  Will it be a ring of fire pattern with perturbations coming over the top and firing up storm clusters? Will it be farther northeast and shut down rains? Could it be so far east that it allows systems to the west to really increase rains across the Plains and points eastward as deep moisture returns?

Monday: Heat out West, spreading east, especially northern tier. Not as much heat in the deep south. Precip?  Historically, the set up can be on the dry side but some of the models have average to above average rains.

Tuesday: The NWS will go hot north and not as hot south again. Probably lots of rain but this pattern could turn dry of the cold fronts coming south of the border stay farther north and the heat ridge is more dominant.

Wednesday: Cooler today in the Midwest/East late in this period vs yesterday..........heat will be out West. Potentially drier with uncertainty.

Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


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