KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 22, 2019
8:30 AM ET. June CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous -0.05)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.17)
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.5%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +1.0%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
9:00 AM ET. May U.S. Monthly House Price Index
10:00 AM ET. July Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 3)
Shipments Idx (previous 7)
10:00 AM ET. June Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.34M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 4.3)
Median Price (USD) (previous 277700)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +4.8%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.4M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.5M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.2M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of last-Friday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7834.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 8001.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7834.86. Second support is the July 9th reaction low crossing at 7743.00.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's key reversal down and close below the 20-day moving average. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 2972.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 3022.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 2972.80. Second support is the July 9th reaction low crossing at 2964.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 157-02 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-09 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 157-02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-09. Second support is June's low crossing at 152-27.
September T-notes were slightly higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at 128.140 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.235 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.235. Second support is June's low crossing at 126.155.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 51.72 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 60.36. Second resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 54.72. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.
August heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. If August extends the decline off July's high, the reaction low crossing at 178.74. First resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.98. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 185.26. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.65 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.45 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 191.45. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 203.78. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.65. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 177.43.
August Henry natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off July's high, July's low crossing at 2.217 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.423 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.423. Second resistance is the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.486. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.233. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.217.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 96.12.
The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.40. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 112.53. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2603 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2603. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2705 is the next upside target. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2417. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the July 1st gap crossing at 1.0303 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0149 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0149. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.0066.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 76.16.
The September Japanese Yen was lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that the rally off July's low might be coming to an end. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 0.0942 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0937. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0942. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0922. Second support is the May 30th reaction low crossing at 0.0917.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was steady to slightly lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1415.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1454.40. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the July 1st low crossing at 1384.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1358.20.
September silver was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.430 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If September extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 16.858 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 16.625. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 16.858. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.676. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.480.
September copper was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 285.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 280.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 285.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.79. Second support is July's low crossing at 261.10.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Moderating temps across the Midwest have triggered additional long-liquidation by traders, which open the door for a test of the May 28th gap crossing at 4.20 in the near-future. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Monday's high, July's low crossing at 4.20 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.41 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 4.64 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.28. Second support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20.
December wheat was lower overnight.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 5.04 1/2. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/2-cents at 4.59 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat posted a key reversal up on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.74 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4.91 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.51 3/4. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.52 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.52 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.37 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends last-Friday's rally, July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below July's low would confirm a downside breakout of the head-and-shoulders neckline thereby opening the door for a larger-degree decline into the end of July. First resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. First support is July's low crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.
December soybean meal was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 323.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 323.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.
December soybean oil was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 28.97 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $1.10 at $83.88.
August hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.00 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.00. Second resistance is the reaction crossing at 95.52. First support the reaction low crossing at 75.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 73.95.
August cattle closed up $0.20 at 107.60.
August cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.93. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 119.95. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.55 at $139.98.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 143.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 136.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, October 2018 high crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes this month's decline, June's low crossing at 23.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, last September's low crossing at 11.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.30 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.81 would confirm that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Hotter week 2 for natural gas.
Some lingering rains today in the Southeast belt, then dry this week.
How much rain for the grains in the extended?