INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - May 14, 2018, 7:39 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, May 14, 2018   

 



 

 

11:00 AM ET. IIF hosts launch of IMF's Global Debt Database

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Overnight support came from a renewed indications of a thaw in U.S.-China relations. Another day of gains for the Dow would mark its eighth-straight advance, the longest positive streak since one that ended Sept. 20, 2017.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off the late-April low, the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6755.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 6987.87. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-April-decline crossing at 7098.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6755.98. Second support is May's low crossing at 6538.00.    



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 2806.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2675.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is May's low crossing at 2592.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-07. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-02. First support is April's low crossing at 141-17. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.



June T-notes were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.038 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.169. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.038. First support is the late-April low crossing at 118.310. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 71.89. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.66.  



June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.54 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 223.46. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 214.54. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 204.13. 



June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 248.43 is the next upside target. Closes below May's low crossing at 205.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 219.59. Second support is monthly resistance crossing at 248.43. First support is May's low crossing at 205.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 203.67. 



June Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 2.844 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 2.695 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 2.695. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.660.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.51 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 94.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 93.29. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 94.46. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.30.



The June Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.25 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, last-November low crossing at 117.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.95. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 117.35. 



The June British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3803 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3583. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3803. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.3480. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3148.  



The June Swiss Franc were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's losses. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0144 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9833 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0027. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0144. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 0.9972. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9833.



The June Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at 79.92 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 77.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 78.62. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 76.99. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.  



The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9210 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9210. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9355. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 0.9110. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1323.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1323.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20.



July silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 16.950 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.521 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.950. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 17.425. First support is May's low crossing at 16.070. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.805. 



June copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 315.65 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 315.65. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 300.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



July corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.94 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4. If July renews the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 4.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.94 1/4. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 3.85 1/4.  



July wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off May's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 would open the door for a possible test of the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4. If July resumes the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94. Second support is the late-April low crossing at 4.67 3/4.      



July Kansas City Wheat closed down 9-cents at 5.18. 



July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.96 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.42 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is today's low crossing at 5.16. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.96 1/2. 



July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4 is a potential downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.15 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the rally off the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4, April's high crossing at 6.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 6.30 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



July soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's losses.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.44 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.67 1/2. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. First support is the overnight low crossing at 10.01 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.94 1/2. 



July soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, the late-April low crossing at 373.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 389.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 391.90. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 406.50. First support is the late-April low crossing at 373.80. Second support is April's low crossing at 367.00. 



July soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.67 would open the door for additional short-term gains. If July resumes the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.67. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.19. First support is April's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35. 



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $2.23 at $75.10 



June hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, April's high crossing at 79.10 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 70.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 79.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 72.20. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25. 



June cattle closed up $0.10 at 107.63. 



June cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.13 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.80. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.

 

August Feeder cattle closed down $0.05 at $143.90. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 140.08 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 147.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 149.08. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 153.88. First support is the reaction low crossing at 140.08. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



July coffee closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, the reaction low crossing at 11.75 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.17 would confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cocoa closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renewed this year's rally, the contract high crossing at 30.20 is the next upside target. If July extends this week's decline the 50-day moving average crossing at 26.41 is the next downside target.  



July sugar closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.58 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



July cotton closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 83.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 95.10 is the next upside target.   

Comments
By metmike - May 14, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Thanks tallpine!