KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, July 19, 2019
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 97.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.6)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.5)
10:00 AM ET. June Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends gains following Thursday's upside reversal. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7835.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 8001.50. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7835.46. Second support is the July 9th reaction low crossing at 7743.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2977.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3022.60. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2977.94. Second support is the July 9th reaction low crossing at 2964.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 157-02 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-04 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 157-02. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 153-04. Second support is June's low crossing at 152-27.
September T-notes were steady to slightly lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off Tuesday's low, July's high crossing at 128.140 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.215 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.215. Second support is June's low crossing at 126.155.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 51.72 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.17 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 60.36. Second resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 54.72. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.
August heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 178.74. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.98. First support is the reaction low crossing at 178.74. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 173.74.
August unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off July's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.79 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 192.02 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 192.02. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 203.78. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 184.79. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 177.43.
August Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 2.217 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.431 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.431. Second resistance is the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.496. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 2.266. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.217.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidated some of Thursday's losses. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 96.12.
The September Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's loss. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 112.54. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly low overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's gains. The high-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2620 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 1.2001 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2620. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2717 is the next upside target. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.2417. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.2001.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the July 1st gap crossing at 1.0303 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0144 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0144. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.0066.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.46. Second support is July's low crossing at 76.16.
The September Japanese Yen was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 0.0942 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0927 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 0.0937. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 0.0942. First support is July's low crossing at 0.0922. Second support is the May 30th reaction low crossing at 0.0917.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was lower in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally, which spiked to a new contract high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1415.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1454.40. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the July 1st low crossing at 1384.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1355.70.
September silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, weekly resistance crossing at 16.858 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.438 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 16.500. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 16.858. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.438. Second support is the July 5th low crossing at 14.915.
September copper was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 280.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-June-decline crossing at 280.32. Second resistance is the May 6th reaction high crossing at 285.35. First support is July's low crossing at 261.10. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Monday's high.The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 4.20 1/2 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.64 3/4. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.28. Second support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20.
December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.28 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.04 1/2. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down 9-cents at 4.53 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.76 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 4.91 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.52 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.53 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.53 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.37 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight as it rebounded off neckline support of a broad head-and-shoulders top. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 8.90 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes below July's low would confirm a downside breakout of the head-and-shoulders neckline thereby opening the door for a larger-degree decline during the last half of July. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.11 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 9.36 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. First support is July's low crossing at 8.90 1/4. Second support is June's low crossing at 8.75 1/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 317.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.
December soybean oil was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.51 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 27.87. Second support is June's low crossing at 27.60.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.78 at $82.78.
August hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.19 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 75.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 84.19. Second resistance is the reaction crossing at 95.52. First support the reaction low crossing at 75.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 73.95.
August cattle closed down $0.73 at 107.40.
August cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 105.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 109.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 109.93. Second resistance is the April 18th high crossing at 119.95. First support is June's low crossing at 101.97. Second support is weekly support crossing at 100.40.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.15 at $139.42.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August resumes the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 143.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 136.03.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.17 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off May's low, October 2018 high crossing at 13.63 is the next upside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, June's low crossing at 23.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 24.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower for the sixth day in a row on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, last September's low crossing at 11.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.36 would confirm that a low has been posted.
December cotton closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.96 would confirm that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Possible heat ridge returning at the end of the month.
Out of town right now be back this weekend!