KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, July 15, 2019
8:30 AM ET. July Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -8.6)
Employment Idx (previous -3.5)
New Orders Idx (previous -12.0)
Prices Received (previous 6.8)
Tuesday, July 16, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.5%)
8:30 AM ET. June Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -0.3%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.3%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. June Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -2.2%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
9:15 AM ET. June Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 78.1%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.2)
10:00 AM ET. July NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 64)
10:00 AM ET. May Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.5%)
4:00 PM ET. May Treasury International Capital Data
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -8.1M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.7M)
Wednesday, July 17, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 505.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.4%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 275.6)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +2.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1799.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +6.5%)
8:30 AM ET. June New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.269M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Building Permits (previous 1.294M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
9:30 AM ET. IMF External Sector Report launch
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 458.992M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -9.499M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous -29.187M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.455M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 130.517M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.729M)
Refinery Usage (previous 94.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.292M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.522M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book
Thursday, July 18, 2019
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 397.2K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 261.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 284.4K)
8:30 AM ET. July Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 0.3)
Prices Paid (previous 12.9)
Employment (previous 15.4)
New Orders (previous 8.3)
Prices Received (previous 0.6)
Delivery Times (previous 15.6)
Inventories (previous 2.4)
Shipments (previous 16.6)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 209K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -13K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1723000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +27K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. June Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
Leading Index (previous 111.8)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2471B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +81B)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, July 19, 2019
10:00 AM ET. July University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 97.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 88.6)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 112.5)
10:00 AM ET. June Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7784.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7982.25. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7784.07. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7588.90.
The September S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the indexes rally into uncharted territory. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2963.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3019.20. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2993.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2963.78.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 155-00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 156-29. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 158-09. First support is June's low crossing at 152-27. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152-17.
September T-notes were steady to slightly lower in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.123 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 127.191 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at 128.140. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 130.010. First support is June's low crossing at 126.155. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.123.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
August crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 62.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.84 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-June decline crossing at 62.41. Second resistance is the May 20th high crossing at 64.03. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.84. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 51.72.
August heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the May 28th high crossing at 202.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the May 28th high crossing at 202.50. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 213.98. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 192.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 186.94.
August unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off June's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 207.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 203.78. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 207.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 194.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 187.58.
August Henry natural gas was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.326 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.514 would signal that the intermediate trend is turning neutral to bullish. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.457. Second resistance is the March-May-downtrend line crossing near 2.514. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.326. Second support is June's low crossing at 2.134.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was slightly lower in late-overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.33 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September resumes the rally off June's low, the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the June 18th reaction high crossing at 97.27. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 97.72. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.33. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 96.12.
The September Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.56 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 112.12 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 114.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 116.21. First support is the last-Tuesday's low crossing at 112.62. Second support is May's low crossing at 112.12.
The September British Pound was lower in late-overnight trading. The mid-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2651 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2651. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2771 is the next upside target. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2480. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2439.
The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0215 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0123 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0392. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0505. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0123. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.0066.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight and is challenging the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.18 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 76.92. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 77.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.28.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Wednesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0931 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the May 30th reaction low crossing at 0.0917 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0935. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0942. First support is the May 30th low crossing at 0.0917. Second support is the May 21st reaction low crossing at 0.0912.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: August gold was higher in late-overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the July 1st low crossing at 1384.70 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If August resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1442.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2011-2015-decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 1484.50. First support is the July 1st low crossing at 1384.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1344.30.
September silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September resumes the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 15.835 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.965 would open the door for additional weakness near-term.First resistance is June's high crossing at 15.625. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 15.835. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.965. Second support is the June 10th reaction low crossing at 14.700.
September copper was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Tuesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 269.93 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 259.95 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 269.93. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at 275.70. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 261.10. Second support is June's low crossing at 259.95.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low.The low-range trade overnight will likely see December fill the opening gap and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 4.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.41 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 4.73. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 5.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.29. Second support is May 28th gap crossing at 4.20.
December wheat was higher overnight as it the rally off last-Wednesday's low.The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 5.06 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.60 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-May decline crossing at 5.86 1/2. First support is June's low crossing at 5.06 1/4. Second support is the May 23rd low crossing at 4.88 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 5 1/2-cents at 4.86 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/4. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.84 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.27 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.36. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.52 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.14.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline, May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.61 3/4. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 5.82. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 5.38. Second support is May's low crossing at 5.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Tuesday's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If November extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, June's high crossing at 9.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.10 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at 9.48. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 9.57 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.91 3/4.
December soybean meal was slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 320.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 301.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 320.70. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 336.00. First support is the May 28th gap crossing at 309.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 301.40.
December soybean oil was higher in late-overnight trading. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 28.91 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off June's high, June's low crossing at 27.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 28.56. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 29.50. First support is June's low crossing at 27.60. Second support is May's low crossing at 26.96.
Thanks tallpine. Exhaustion gaps yesterday evening filled in beans, then corn with overnight models adding rain to the already much cooler forecast compared to Friday's "dome of death" heat ridge.
Natural gas feeling heavy pressure from the much cooler temperatures.