Great observation tjc,

I'll try to oblige with that request. 

The bullish weather was pretty maximized on Friday. The same forecast on Sunday will result in that break away gap higher.

However, there are several items that will be different, some potentially bearish.

It's IA drying out that is most bullish right now but the hot/dry outlooks for much of the belt on Friday counted a great deal. 

1. Remnants of Barry.  The farther northwest they go, the more bearish this will be. The last few runs are taking the remnants farther northwest in IL and heavy(not damaging rains in IN/OH.  On Friday, most of the rain was barely getting to the Ohio River in southern IN. If most of IL is going to get an inch of rain and points east, this is a bearish factor. I doubt this will happen but if it shocked us and affected IA with any rains, you wouldn't want to be long. We are in pure "rain makes grain mentality" forget trying spin this otherwise. This is NOT 1993.

2. The extended maps have been suggesting this and even more so today. This dome is going to retrograde westward later this month and introduce cooling to the middle of the country.  The question is just with regards to how much rain will fall in the Northwest flow pattern that follows. It would be active and turn wetter(but progressive with little chance for too much rain). I am leaning for us to stay pretty dry when this pattern morphs to cooler........at least initially. So cooler and dry might still be a bit bullish but on Friday, we were REALLY hot and dry. 

The next week, however IA is going to have ZERO rain and temps well into the 90's. IA has been pretty dry the past month. Crop conditions in the state expected to have the highest production will start to deteriorate........as will surrounding areas that don't get any rain from Barry. This is why the market was so strong on Friday.

The northern tier will get some rains to next week.

ifI were a weatherman dealing with a very fickle mother nature I would sure change that last line MM. Something like the northern belt will have much better chances of rain

Initially it appears grains will open with a gap--probably c, w, and s.  I have searched around, and calls are higher.  Many pointing to the 6-10 as being very bullish due to heat and lack of rain in western belt.

MetMike will warn that the 8-14 suggests moderation of heat--rain remains questionable.

FADE strength--rebuy Tuesday??

                By metmike - July 14, 2019, 7:04 p.m.            

Wayne,

The WCB DOES need rain but we have no rain for most of NE/IA/(much of)IL high producing areas for the next 2 weeks.

Heat this week is why those spots will really be needing rain.......then turning MUCH cooler week 2 but not much rains. We need some rain in those areas.

The forecast is similar to Friday with rains but definitely cooler in week 2 which is why natural gas has been under pressure for the first hour of trading.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Be very careful here because the forecast is NOT more bulllish than Friday and we are vulnerable for this to be an exhaustion gap if any rain shows up overnight to go with the much cooler temps in week 2.

Cooler and still dry can still be pretty bullish but we really need the heat ridge to stay over the Cornbelt for this to be clearly bullish enough to go much higher.

SX got within 1 tick of filling the gap higher but held so far.

CZ has been much stronger with 2c of the gap higher remaining unfilled.

CZ got to within 1c of filing the gap and SX has hovered 1 tick above the gap for a long time........seems likely to get filled but we will see.

SX filled the gap higher. 

Technically, this puts it in a position to be an exhaustion "gap and crap" which is when the buying peaks on extreme news and results in the opening trading bar being higher than the previous high of the day..........but the buying runs out(exhausted) and selling presses the market back into the previous days trading range.

This is a powerful reversal signal............which is only confirmed if we close lower tomorrow and even that can change if the dome of death returns to the week 2 forecast, looking like it did on Friday.

But the dome is retrograding to the west which promises cooler temperatures in week 2. No big rains events yet but much cooler temperatures for now.

Whatever the weather models show overnight will dictate prices tomorrow. 

If we add rains, the highs are in for this trading day.  If the dome shifts back in, new highs will occur.

                By metmike - July 15, 2019, 2:14 p.m.            

We obviously added rains overnight:

Mondays weather below:

Monday's update continues exactly with the (bearish) trends mentioned yesterday and Saturday, so no change.........EXCEPT TO ADD RAIN: "The Saturday week 2 forecast is COOLER!!! The heat ridge is retrograding(backing up westward)"

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/34640/

Yes I see the radar shifting the green west ward

However, maybe it is different out west, but in our part of the world, July needs orange or red to get any rain. A 1/10th or so of rain is not a drought buster. In fact no useable rain what so ever. That blob looks to be green and not even much if any dark green

If that was my back yard I would expect no useable rain to occur. Especially in July

Of course MM is several pay grades above my weather forcasting so I will defer to MM in the western corn belt rain possibilities

The gap tonight will be a downside gap lower.

The last US models shows even more rain in the 11-15 day period than before which goes along with the already bearish much cooler temperatures in week 2. 

That, combined with a slightly improved crop rating should give us the lower open, after closing near the lows on Monday..........thus a downside gap.

On the bullish side, the European model did not have as much rain in week 2 as the US model but that last run was from over 6 hours ago and won't be updated until early morning Tuesday. Also, rains with the remnants of Barry have been much less than model forecasts so far.

The US model MUST take out this rain or the highs are in for sure.