Happy July 4th! Do something to set off fantastic figurative fireworks in somebody's life today!
Scroll down and enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max...... occurring because of the natural physical laws in our atmosphere.
Benign, mostly favorable weather pattern continues in the near term. We are now trading "Rain makes Grain".
This pattern is much different than anything that we've seen for a very long time.
Will the heat ridge continue to retrograde west late in week 2 into the Rockies, then even farther west? Or will the heat be able to spread farther east?
The location of the big heat ridge in the 2nd half of July will be the absolute key to the forecast!!!! Will the rains start to dry up?
Here are the latest hazards across the country.
Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind, Green is flooding. Gray is fog. Reddish is a red flag advisory.
Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Go to "hazards"
Current Weather Map
|NCEP Days 0-7 Forecast Loop||NCEP Short-Range Model Discussion||NCEP Day 3-7 Discussion|
Wind map Press down on this on the left with your cursor!
Current Jet Stream
|Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning|
Hot to very warm!!
Temperature colors on the maps below still need to be adjusted down to cooler shades.
Highs for days 3-7:
Hot to very warm in much of the country.
Temperatures compared to average for days 3-7 below
Hot to very warm over much of the country.
Weather maps for days 3-7 below
Ring of fire pattern?.....................with perturbations in the jet stream coming over the top and around the periphery of the heat ridge........ which will sinks from the Central to the Southern Plains, firing up storm clusters that evolve in the Plains, then move southeast.
Weak surface front will not have much cool air behind it.
Liquid equivalent precip forecasts for the next 7 days are below.
Rain makes grain!! Some heavy but not excessive rain threats(N/C Plains to Midwest) with a ring of fire type pattern as storm clusters track around the periphery of the heat ridge.
Day 1 below:
Day 2 below:
Day 3 below
Days 4-5 below:
Days 6-7 below:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Slight risk of excessive rains in a few locations.
|Current Day 1 Forecast|
Valid 12Z 04/22/19 - 12Z 04/23/19
|Day 2 and Day 3 Forecasts|
|Current Day 2 Forecast|
Valid 12Z 04/23/19 - 12Z 04/24/19
|Current Day 3 Forecast|
Slight risk to mostly marginal risk of severe storms, mainly a wind threat continues this week but not widespread.
|Current Day 1 Outlook|| Forecaster: Thompson/Squitieri|
Valid: 20/1630Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: No Svr Tstms
| Current Day 2 Outlook|| Forecaster: Broyles|
Valid: 21/1200Z - 22/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 3 Outlook|| Forecaster: Broyles|
Valid: 22/1200Z - 23/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
| Current Day 4-8 Outlook|
Last 24 hour precip top map
Last 7 day precip below that
Current Dew Points
Deep moisture feeding north from the Gulf of Mexico.........also evaporating off of wet soils.
Latest radar loop
| (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)|
Go to: Most Recent Image
Go to: Most Recent Image
You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
East/Southeast Cornbelt is saturated but drying out!!!
Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.
These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).
Currently, there is 0% of the main Cornbelt/Midwest with drought.........but it's been very dry along the Canadian border. There is drought in the Southeast.
The map below is updated on Thursdays.
The market has turned into a rain makes grain market, though there are alot of beans that still need to be planted in early July.
The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average at the end of week 2.
Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.
The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.
End of week 2....................0z ensembles:
Analysis starting from a week ago, ending with today:
Last week+ of analysis, starting with the day farthest in the past. This is an end of week 2 forecast!
Last Monday: Still the upper level trough just off the West Coast and a downstream heat ridge..........anywhere from the Rockies to S.Plains to points eastward
Tuesday: Trough just off the West Coast and big heat ridge just downstream.........possible trough along the East Coast(with cooler temps).......a bit deeper today.
Wednesday: Same as yesterday. Trough just off the West Coast and big heat ridge downstream. Maybe some troughing Upper Midwest to Northeast. This model is wetter than the other models.
Thursday: Heat ridge looking the most impressive farthest east on the Canadian model!! Still an upper level trough off the West Coast.
Friday: Upper level trough/low off the West Coast deeper and farther west...........so the downstream heat ridge backs up farther west and allows for more troughing and cooler weather Upper Midwest to East.
Saturday: Deep upper level trough off the West Coast. Big heat ridge downstream. Will the heat ridge dominate the south and be elongated from west to east? With upper level troughing and a fast, progressive flow across the north?
Sunday: Canadian model is strongest with heat ridge in the south and on numerous members goes pretty far east with it.
Monday: Heat ridge weaker in the East, still pretty strong south, downstream fromm the significant upper level trough along the West Coast.
Tuesday: Upper level trough a bit weaker off the West Coast but the key to the 2nd half of July is based on the position of the downstream heat ridge. Somewhere between the Southwest US to S.Plains and potentially points eastward. The farther west it stays, the cooler it is in the Midwest/East, the farther east, the hotter those places get, especially the southern tier.
Wednesday: Where will the heat ridge be at the end of 2 weeks?
Thursday: Heat ridge in the southern half of the country looking extremely impressive on half of the Canadian model solutions at the end of week 2. Less troughing in the East on this model today and strong zonal jet stream along the northern tier slightly farther north today vs yesterday..........so its warmer today.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 19, 2019 00 UTC
0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:
Analysis, starting with the oldest, ending with the most recent:
Last Monday: Upper level heat ridge the farthest west on this model........possibly in the Rockies. Other models are farther east. This model backs the heat up farther west and allows some cool air to push into the East........on some solutions. It is also fairly dry, with some solutions shutting down the rains.............hard to do with very wet soils, so that remains to be seen.
Tuesday: Upper level heat ridge somewhere and least likely in the Northeast, which may be on the cool side. This pattern is usually a very dry one but with wet soils, that may not be the case this time(just not excessive rains).
Wednesday: Heat ridge location around the Rockies. Maybe troughing in the Northeast. Heat would back out west and cooling farther east with this type of solution.
Thursday: Heat ridge much farther west on this model with cooling in the East.
Friday: Heat ridge shifts farther southwest and upper level trough is getting carved out in the Upper Midwest to Northeast with some cooling.
Saturday: More of a west to east heat ridge across the south today with upper level troughing north.
Sunday: This model is stronger with the flow across the northern tier and has more troughing in the East and is cooler in the middle.
Monday: Strong heat ridge from West to S.Plains.
Tuesday: Slim pickins on this product today. Location of the heat ridge will determine how bullish or bearish the 2nd half of July weather is.
Wednesday: Huge heat ridge. Where will it be during the 2nd half of July!
Thursday: This model prefers the heat ridge in the West, with troughing and cooler downstream at the end of 2 weeks.
GFS Ensemble mean(average of all the individual solutions above). The first map is a mid/upper level map. The 2nd one is a temperatures map at around 1 mile above the surface. These are anomalies(difference compared to average). The daily analysis starts with the oldest and ends with the latest.
Last Sunday: Positive anomaly here late in week 2 is shifted a bit to the northwest, so the upper level heat ridge could also shift, which MIGHT cause a change downstream with any potential cool intrusions.
Monday: This model features widespread positive anomalies at higher latitudes. Slightly below average anomalies in the Southeast. Ordinarily, this is a fairly dry pattern with the heat towards the north and not the south.
Tuesday: Positive anomalies in the high latitudes to the Rockies. Weak negative anomalies in the Southeast. This is usually pretty dry, maybe on the cool side in the Southeast/South.
Wednesday: Positive anomaly in the N.Rockies(very warm west), slight negative in the Southeast..........favors cool there. Generally, not a wet pattern but we have wet soils that will re cycle moisture surface moisture and a potential "ring of fire" pattern that would feature perturbations coming over the top of the heat ridge and tracking southeast into the Midwest.
Thursday: Positive anomaly from Alaska, extending to the N.Rockies/Plains Weak negative anomaly in the Southeast. This would favor the warmth farther west but doesn't agree with other models.
Friday: No extreme anomalies.
Saturday: No major anomalies, and slightly higher values in the east, suggesting
less potential cooling than yesterday. Makings of a potential, big heat ridge across the southern half of the country.
Sunday: Slightly positive anomalies, except weaker in the Great Lakes which favor a cool Midwest.
Monday: Biggest positive anomaly is in N.Canada.
Tuesday: Modest positive anomaly across much of the country from west to east. Potential for a heat ridge to build in under this environment. Where will it be located? Rather than an amplified south to north heat ridge, this favors an elongated west to east heat ridge, especially in the south.
Wednesday: Slight positive anomaly centered Pacific Northwest favors more heat west than east.
Thursday: This is just the average of the individual ensembles from above, so it shows the positive anomaly in the Northwest(with heat), with a weak negative anomaly in the Southeast and cooler weather vs average in the middle of the country.
NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast
Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them.
Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.
Last Monday: Near zero to slightly negative for the AO, NAO. PNA spikes down then up at the end of week 2, related to uncertain location of trough/ridge couplet in the West.
Tuesday: All close to or just below 0.
Wednesday: AO and NAO slightly negative. PNA going from negative back to 0 at the end of 2 weeks.
Thursday: AO and NAO slightly negative. PNA going from moderately negative to a quick bounce back to 0 at the end of week 2. Uncertainty out West during week 2.....with downstream implications.
Friday: AO and NAO slightly negative. PNA goes from negative to jumping up to 0 at the end of week 2............from the upper level trough/ridge couplet shifting farther west...............and more cooling possible in the Midwest/East.
Saturday: Negative AO, tiny bit negative NAO, PNA going from negative to near 0.
Sunday: Negative AO and NAO. PNA wildly gyrating with a wide spread.......uncertainty on whether to have a ridge or trough in the West.
Monday: Negative AO and NAO..........cool temp potential along the northern tier. Negative PNA bounces back close to 0 at the end of 2 weeks.
Tuesday: Fairly negative AO, also negative NAO. PNA which will be negative for awhile, increases to positive at the end of week 2. Potential significant pattern change for the 2nd half of July, all depending on where the heat ridge sets up and the jet stream that tracks around it.
Wednesday: Negative AO and NAO, postive PNA favors heat west, cooler east. Rains easing up?
Thursday: AO and NAO just below 0. PNA above zero but fluctuating wildly and indecisively in week 2 from uncertainty about the location of the heat ridge that may be located in the West.
National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.
Tues: Heat shifting west, heavy rains easing up/shifting as week 2 progresses.
Wed: Pattern change continues for this period. Heat shifting west to the middle of the country........heavy rains ease up/drying out.
Thursday: Same pattern change. Heat shifts west into the Plains. Heavy rains ease up but there is still some rain.
Friday: Same forecast philosophy. Heat centered in the N.Plains, heavy rains ease up but not completely dry.
Sunday: Same theme but potential changes late in week 2 in the location of the N.Plains heat ridge.....shifting farther northwest??
Monday: Heat in the N.Plains. Will this continue well into July? Rains continue because of wet soils but the actual pattern is a dry one for some locations........ absolutely no heavy rain signal.
Tuesday: Heat in the N.Plains still. Cool in the South. Usually a dry pattern but with wet soils, the NWS may still add alot of green to dial that element in .......from the abundant surface H2O being recycled.
Wednesday: "Heat could be backing up westward a bit." The NWS does not have this at all today. I realize, looking at the big picture that I am giving most weight to the GFS ensembles with my late week 2 outlooks......which has the heat much farther west and is much cooler in the East than the NWS and the European Ensembles. The GFS might be right of course but this observation is good to note in the future for me when looking at the extended maps.
Thursday: Heat ridge location??? The Canadian model is most bullish today with it farthest east. Rains will probably stay above because of wet soils recycling the moisture but the pattern could start drying out with a heat ridge of this potential magnitude.
Friday: Heat ridge backs up west as the GFS products have been showing all week and other models following overnight. Heat shifts farther west, cooling in the East/middle of the country. This can sometimes be a dry pattern but probably not this time with wet soils and northwest flow ushering in perturbations that track across the Cornbelt.
Saturday: Uncertainty on position of the heat ridge and fast flow north of that with above precip in that flow(around the periphery of the heat ridge)
Sunday: Likely to be cool in the center and above precip again.
Monday: Looking cooler. Precip above but no excessive rain signal. I take that back on the heavy rains as we will likely see some heavy rains, just a matter of figuring out the locations.
Tuesday: Potential for rains to shut down, especially in the southern half after day 10. Where will the heat ridge set up? I won't try to guess the NWS outlook for this afternoon because there is some key shifting in features late in the period that can turn this from bearish to bullish in a flash.
Wednesday: Heat more favored west, cooler to the east. Rains may not be as abundant as recently.
Thursday: GFS products strongly suggest hot West and cooler to the east again....but the overall pattern and model solutions don't feature much cool air...with heat in the West AND the South. Wet soils and potential northwest flow argue for above rains(not much above) but this pattern, historically leads to gradual drying.
|the 8-14 day outlooks|
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By tjc - July 3, 2019, 12:30 p.m.
North Central Illinois got pounded early this morning. 1inch widespread, instances of 3. Pounds very prevalent.
NOT what was needed. Saturated
The market is in "Rain makes grain" mentality now.............unless the pattern would shift back to excessive rains again.