KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, May 23, 2019
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 634.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 674.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 533.9K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 215K; previous 212K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -16K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1660000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -28K)
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 52.9)
9:45 AM ET. May US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 52.5; previous 52.4)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. April New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 680K; previous 692K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected -1.7%; previous +4.5%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.0)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1653B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +106B)
11:00 AM ET. May Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 12)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 14)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 5)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 11)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, May 24, 2019
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected -2.0%; previous +2.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Monday, May 27, 2019
N/A U.S.: Memorial Day. Financial markets closed
N/A U.S: Jefferson Davis' Birthday holiday in Mississippi
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The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as investors brace for a protracted U.S.-China trade standoff. Continued weak global economic data and the lack of prospects for the resumption of US-China trade talks are overshadowing earnings visibility and investors lack of appetite for risk investments. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7103.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7603.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7603.46. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is today's low crossing at 7268.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7103.16.
The June S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2884.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2884.61. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23.
The Dow closed sharply lower on Thursday as U.S. investors are beginning to adjust to the idea of an extended standoff between the U.S. and China as increased trade friction have continued to weigh on the broader market and the technology sector in particular. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the decline off May's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,795.46 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,995.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,995.41. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 26,695.96. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 25,222.51. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May-rally crossing at 24,795.46.
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June T-bonds closed up 1-11/32's at 151-02.
June T-bonds closed sharply higher on Thursday as it renewed this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this year's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 151-15. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 148-24. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148-00.
June T-notes closed up 195-pts. At 125.015.
June T-notes closed sharply higher on Thursday and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.212 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 125.070. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.020. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.230.
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June crude oil closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 64.75 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below May's low crossing at 60.04 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is May's low crossing at 60.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.
June heating oil closed sharply lower on Thursday and below the reaction low crossing at 202.09 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 193.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 205.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 213.77. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.16. First support is the reaction low crossing at 193.99. Second support is February's lowcrossing at 185.59.
June unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as expectations for a lengthy U.S.-China trade dispute raised concerns over a slowdown in energy demand. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.66 has opened the door for a possible test of the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.41 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is May's high crossing at 208.54. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 209.69. First support is today's low crossing at 190.02. Second support is the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31.
June Henry natural gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 2.516 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.673 would open the door for a possible test of the reaction high crossing at 2.768. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.673. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.768. First support is May's low crossing at 2.516. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.477.
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The June Dollar posted a key reversal down on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 99.90 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 98.26. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 99.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.96.
The June Euro posted a key reversal up on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.91. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 115.33. First support is today's low crossing at 111.26. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound closed lower on Thursday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 1.2591 is the next downside target. Close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2939 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2816. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2939. First support is today's low crossing at 1.2618. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2591.
The June Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9986. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0099 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9900 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 0.9997. Second resistance is the the 2017-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0099. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9900. Second support is April's low crossing at 0.9814.
The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.73. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0905 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0908. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905.
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June gold closed higher on Thursday due to a weaker US Dollar. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1292.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1252.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 1302.60. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. First support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver closed sharply higher on Thursday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.736 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends the decline off February's high, last-November's low crossing at 14.175 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.736. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.031. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 14.350. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 14.175.
July copper closed higher due to short covering on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 261.76 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 277.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 272.54. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 277.50. First support is today's low crossing at 265.45. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-April rally crossing at 261.76.
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July Corn closed down 4 3/4-cents at 3.89 3/4.
July corn closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Friday's updated extended Midwest weather forecast for next week will likely hold the keys as to how July corn will close out the week ahead of the Memorial Day weekend. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.99. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4.
July wheat closed down 3 1/2-cents at 4.69 1/4.
July wheat posted a key reversal down on Thursday on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.92 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.58 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 3/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed down 7-cents at 4.25 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.08 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, March's high crossing at 4.61 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.46 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 4.80 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.08 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at 3.82.
July Minneapolis wheat closed down 9 1/2-cents at 5.34 1/4.
July Minneapolis wheat posted a key reversal down on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 5.70 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.29 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.22.
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July soybeans closed down 7 3/4-cents at 8.20 3/4.
July soybeans closed lower on Thursday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 8.48 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 7.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.48 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.77. First support is May's low crossing at 7.91. Second support is monthly support crossing at 7.75.
July soybean meal closed down $1.30 at 297.00.
July soybean meal posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 295.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 305.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 309.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 295.40. Second support is May's low crossing at 283.10.
July soybean oil closed down 56-pts. at 26.75.
July soybean oil closed sharply lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 10-day moving average crossing at 27.11 has tempered the near-term friendly outlook. If July renews this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.39 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.39. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 29.72. First support is May's low crossing at 26.21. Second support is weekly support crossing at 25.94.
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June hogs closed down $0.23 at $89.42.
June hogs closed lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below May's low crossing at 85.37 would renew the rally off April's high. If June extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 93.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.83. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 99.83. First support is May's low crossing at 85.37. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-April-rally crossing at 82.73.
June cattle closed up $0.15 at 110.80.
June cattle closed higher on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 111.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.97. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.32. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 109.79. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 107.37.
August Feeder cattle closed up $0.43 at $143.03.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 132.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.59 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at crossing at 145.59. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 152.48. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 140.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 132.22.
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July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.38 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 8.32 is the next downside target.
July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, January's high crossing at 24.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.22 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
July sugar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.92 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends this spring's decline, weekly support crossing at 11.10 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 70.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes this spring's decline, monthly support crossing at 59.85 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!