Grains open May 19, 2019
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Started by metmike - May 19, 2019, 7:49 p.m.

Higher open(especially corn) because of too much rain in the forecast, especially in the Western Cornbelt.which surprisingly, has almost no change in the forecast since Friday.........except to add a couple more days to the wet forecast and get 2 days closer to the excessive rains coming up this week. 

Maybe a small gap higher, above Friday's high of 384.75.


Sunday Weather: Excessive rains still coming

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30501/

Monday Weather: Excessive rains this week(Plains/WCB but changes down the road(early June).........maybe

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30583/

Tuesday Weather: Heat ridge breaks down week 2. Pattern change.......turning less wet in week 2?

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30686/


Wednesday Weather: Heat ridge obliterated in week 2...........pattern change. Less extreme rains but still wet in week 2 with active northwest flow?

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30785/

Thursday Weather: same as Wednesday, still alot of rain on the way

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30785/


Friday Weather: Heat ridge still looks to break down by late next week, rains finally become progressive vs stalled.

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30931/


Saturday Weather:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31016/


Sunday Weather: Several more days with rains.........How much do we dry out after that, especially in week 2?

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31057/


Monday Weather:  Heat ridge fizzles Southeast but grows farther northwest and dries things out in week 2.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/31125/

Comments
By tjc - May 19, 2019, 7:59 p.m.
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I think corn GAPS 

 (please switch my corn post from NTR to Trading--ty)

By metmike - May 19, 2019, 8:03 p.m.
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We got the small gap higher at 386, low of 385.75, so a 1c gap higher above Friday's high. 


CZ opened at $4 which was Friday's high, so no gap higher there but it's at $401 and finally above $4.


The weather is pretty bullish here but also stale bullish news and we've gone 41c in less than a week on this news, so its always possible to see a spike lower or, with the heat ridge breaking down in week 2 on most models, the market might start trading drier weather ahead and this was an exhaustion gap higher.but only if the market trades lower.

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:05 p.m.
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mon wx updated

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

metmike: Exports good wheat, not so good S and C:


      Darin D. Fessler@DDFalpha                  21m21 minutes ago              

                                         

Export Inspections (TMT):#corn#soybeans#wheat#sorghum#barley

                                                          

 

     Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                  1h1 hour ago              

                                        

Here's what those weekly #wheat inspections look like with 2 weeks and 1 day left in 2018/19. The second half of the marketing year definitely trended upward.

                                                 

 

By metmike - May 20, 2019, 5:07 p.m.
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For the crop condition report/planting progress, go here:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/30630/


Less planted than expected, so a higher open tonight.

By metmike - May 21, 2019, 12:08 p.m.
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If we fill the gap higher from last nights open, then maybe that was an exhaustion gap for this move, with drier weather coming in week 2.



By metmike - May 21, 2019, 12:57 p.m.
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July barely filled last nights gap higher and found tons of buying.

December/new crop couldn't get close to filling last night bullish gap higher. Nobody wants to be short the new crop.

By metmike - May 21, 2019, 1 p.m.
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12z GFS was WETTER!


For the 3rd run in a row, it brings an almost unprecedented, for the end of May polar vortex low down to just north or the Great Lakes early in week 2.  For now, its at such  an extreme that makes one skeptical.


By metmike - May 22, 2019, 6:07 a.m.
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Looks like the Monday evening gap higher was in fact a short term exhaustion gap higher confirmed by the inability to stay above it.

 Huge rain in Illinois on Tuesday evening provided one last buying surge.

A gap and crap trading pattern that ill explain/describe again later.today.

It’s very volatile here and another huge round of storms over a large region, especially if it waterlogged and not planted can cause more spikes higher and even new highs for the move and.

Buit if we dry out in early June, with the pattern change,the short term highs will be in.

By metmike - May 23, 2019, 11:36 a.m.
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Thu wx updated

By metmike - May 25, 2019, 2:14 p.m.
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      Karen Braun‏Verified account @kannbwx                                              

                                              

May 24: CBOT #corn futures top $4 per bushel in the front month for the first time since May 29, 2018. Just 11 days ago, corn had bottomed out at $3.35-1/2. Delays for #plant19 remain in focus and the forecast is still wet for most areas.

                                               

 

By metmike - May 26, 2019, 9:42 p.m.
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Sun wx updated