KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, May 15, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 418.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 270.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.2%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1238.5)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.8%)
8:30 AM ET. April Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. May Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous 10.1)
Employment Idx (previous 11.9)
New Orders Idx (previous 7.5)
Prices Received (previous 14.0)
9:15 AM ET. April Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 78.8%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.2)
9:30 AM ET. U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on financial regulators
10:00 AM ET. March Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.3%)
10:00 AM ET. May NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 63)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 466.604M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.963M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 226.147M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.596M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 125.563M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.159M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.408M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.256M)
4:00 PM ET. March Treasury International Capital Data
Thursday, May 16, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 228K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1684000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 294.5K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 146.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 502.9K)
8:30 AM ET. May Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 8.5)
Prices Paid (previous 21.6)
Employment (previous 14.7)
New Orders (previous 15.7)
Prices Received (previous 20.0)
Delivery Times (previous -5.1)
Inventories (previous 2.6)
Shipments (previous 18.4)
8:30 AM ET. April New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (previous 1.139M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Building Permits (previous 1.269M)
Building Permits, M/M% (previous -1.7%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1547B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +85B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, May 17, 2019
10:00 AM ET. April Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. May University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 96.9)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 85.8)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 114.2)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales
10:00 AM ET. April Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Leading Index (previous 111.9)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. 1st Quarter Advance Quarterly Services
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7692.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7692.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 7879.50. First support is the 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 7371.42. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 6863.36.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2902.89 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2902.89. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2957.30. First support isthe 25% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2804.09. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 2723.23.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 150-21 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-17 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 150-00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 150-21. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 147-17. Second support is April's low crossing at 145-31.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 124.310 is the next upside targets. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 123.156 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 124.230. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 124.310. First support is the reaction low crossing at 122.300. Second support is April's low crossing at 122.205.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
June crude oil was lower in late-overnight trading as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The low-range late-overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 60.04 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at 66.60. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 67.73. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 60.04. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 58.41.
June heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 202.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.48. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 221.16. First support is the reaction low crossing at 202.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 194.17.
June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 201.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 192.64 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.35. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 222.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 192.64. Second support is the March 28th reaction low crossing at 180.31.
June Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.706 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.576 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.706. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.768. First support is May's low crossing at 2.516. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.477.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.81 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is April's high crossing at 98.09. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.67. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.81. Second support is April's low crossing at 96.36.
The June Euro was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off March's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.11 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.11. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 113.86. First support is April's low crossing at 111.57. Second support is the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 1.2899 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3122 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.3245. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3323. First support is April's low crossing at 1.2899. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9996 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9713 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9996. Second resistance is the 2018-2019 downtrend line crossing near 1.0114. First support is April's low crossing at 0.9814. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9713.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.64. First support is April's low crossing at 74.04. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term are possible. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0904 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0920. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 0.0921. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.0910. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0904.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1314.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1283.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1314.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 1330.80. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1272.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1252.70.
July silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.140 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If July resumes the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 14.893. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.140. First support is May's low crossing at 14.570. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.460.
July copper was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 267.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 277.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 283.36. First support is Monday's low crossing at 270.90. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-April-rally crossing at 267.05.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extends this short covering rebound off Monday's low. Monday's bullish planting progress report long with a bullish extended weather forecast for much of the Midwest next week are forcing funds, which held a record short position in corn for this time of year to begin exiting their positions. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4 would confirm that an important low has been posted while opening the door for a possible rebound to test March's high crossing at 3.90. Closes below Tuesday's gap crossing at 3.57 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.70 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.43. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.40 1/4.
July wheat was higher overnight as it extended the short covering rebound off Monday's low.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.54 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-covering gains near-term. If July resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.04 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.54 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 4.82 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.18 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.04 1/4.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 3/4-cents at 4.08 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Tuesday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.07 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 3.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.07. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.29 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.74.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38 is the next upside target. If July resumes the decline off March's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.38. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.45 1/4. First support is April's low crossing at 5.06. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off Monday's low. Monday's planting progress report confirmed what soybean farms across much of the soybean belt already knew that soybean planting is running well behind normal. The extended weather forecast for next week and into the end of the month has turned wet, which will continue to challenge soybean producers to get this year's soybean crop in the ground in a timely fashion. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. If July extends the short covering rally off Monday's low, the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 8.40 1/2 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.49 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.87 1/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.91. Second support is monthly support crossing at 7.75.
July soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 275.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 299.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 307.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at 283.10. Second support is weekly support crossing at 275.50.
July soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the short covering rebound off Monday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 25.47 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.66. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.73. First support is Monday's low crossing at 26.21. Second support is monthly support crossing at 25.47.
Thanks Tallpine!