KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, May 4, 2018
8:30 AM ET. April U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +103K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 4.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.82)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.08)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +1K)
Private Payroll (previous +102K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.9%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter GDP by State
11:00 AM ET. April Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.2)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight but traded in tight ranges as investors focused on the upcoming monthly jobs report, on watch for a rebound for jobs growth. Trade talks between the U.S. and China were also drawing attention, as the second day of discussions took place. The U.S. has reportedly handed Beijing’s team a lengthy list of demands aimed at cutting the trade imbalance between the two. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off the late-April low, April's high crossing at 6867.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 6538.00 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 6867.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6951.00. First support is the late-April low crossing at 6429.25. Second support is April's low crossing at 6306.75.
The June S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight ahead of today's release of the monthly jobs report. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 2584.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2682.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is April's high crossing at 2718.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2584.50. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-02. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146-02. First support is April's low crossing at 141-17. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.292 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.292. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.068. First support is the late-April low crossing at 118.310. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 69.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.47. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 64.59.
June heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off March's low, the contract high crossing at 235.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 217.26. Second resistance is the the contract high crossing at 235.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 209.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 200.76.
June unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 205.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 215.23. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 205.29. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 201.19.
June Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 2.660 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.778 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.691. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.660.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 93.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 90.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 92.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 93.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.53.
The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 119.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 121.24. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.63. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 119.65. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 118.54.
The June British Pound was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 1.3148 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4008 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.3792. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4008. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.3562. Second support is December's low crossing at 1.3148.
The June Swiss Franc were slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 0.9991 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0286 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0141. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0286. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0033. Second support is monthly support crossing at 0.9991.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 77.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.59. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. First support is the reaction low crossing at 77.35. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9274 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9181. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9274 First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.9111. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9047.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1331.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1331.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1279.20.
May silver was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.609 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off April's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. First resistance is the the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.609. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.735. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 16.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
June copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 298.39 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.29. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 320.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 301.00. Second support is April's low crossing at 298.39.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.08 1/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.16 1/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.99 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.96.
July wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the late-April low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off March's low, the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.43 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up 12 1/2-cents at 5.67 3/4.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday and above March's high crossing at 5.65. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.67 3/4. Second resistance isthe 75% retracement level of the July-December-decline crossing at 5.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.30 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.25 1/2.
July Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4, April's high crossing at 6.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.13 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 6.30 3/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 6.43 1/2. First support is the late-April low crossing at 5.91 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.81.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.43 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If July extends the rally off April's low, April's high crossing at 10.78 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 10.78. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.90 1/4. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 10.27 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.14.
July soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 382.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 414.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 406.50. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 414.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 382.60. Second support is the late-April's low crossing at 373.80.
July soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If July extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.85. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31.28. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 30.15. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2015-2016-rally crossing at 29.35.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed unchanged at $73.50.
June hogs closed unchanged on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 70.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.46 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.46. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.81. First support is Monday's low crossing at 72.20. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25.
June cattle closed up $1.68 at 106.53.
June cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 108.05 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 108.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 114.80. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed up $2.18 at $140.80.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 137.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 148.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 143.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.98. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.33. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 12.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.99 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
July cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off December's low, the contract high crossing at 30.20 is the next upside target.
July sugar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.84 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If July extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target.
July cotton closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 85.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 81.36 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.