Today's NWS 10-14 day forecast doesn't look promising for the lower states in terms of moisture. Might be great for planting, but for an area that is already short in soil moisture, could be the beginning of something bad.
You are exactly right jim. We can go from a market concerned about planting delays..............which never lasts because the crop eventually gets planted........to one worried about the bigger threat............hot and dry during the growing season.
In addition, the weather models show a huge dome/ridge in the eastern half of the country but also a powerful jet stream and upper level low coming out of the Pacific and moving towards the Plains late in week 2. This actually is similar to how the flooding evolved in 1993, when those features were shifted a bit farther east than what we will have in 2 weeks.
A slight eastward shift and the heat/deep moisture gets pumped into a stormy, potentially flooding type pattern in the Plains to Upper Midwest.
The one part of the forecast that is certain, is the heat ridge.
Just a matter of where it will be located.
The farther east its located the stormier the Plains/Midwest are.
Farther west and the longer the heat lasts in the middle of the country. Looks like the south and the ECB to East Coast have the highest chances for sustained heat in late May.
Commodityman was me earlier testing something on the forum.
I am thinking the pattern coming up in late May may be looking similar to the Summer of 1993.........huge dome east, trough west, big rains Plains to Upper Midwest.
However, this all depends on where the huge dome sets up as week 2 progresses. If its farther west, then instead of record flooding in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest, we have a more widespread hot/dry.
Friday's models are still not sure where the heat ridge will set up............but there WILL be a big heat ridge building in week 2 with high confidence. Here's the latest extended guidance from the NWS that really shows it:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
The experimental weeks 3 and 4 guidance is showing a very strong heat signal!
Mostly dry too.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/