INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - April 23, 2018, 8:05 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, April 23, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous 0.88)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.37)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 54.1)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 55.7)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales (previous 5.54M)

 



 

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.4)

 



 

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 241700)

 



 

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)

 



 

 

Tuesday, April 24, 2018  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.8%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (expected +6.3%; previous +6.4%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. February U.S. Monthly House Price Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March New Residential Sales

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales (expected 628K; previous 618K)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +1.6%; previous -0.6%)

 



 

 

                       New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 5.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 126.0; previous 127.7)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 106.2)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 159.9)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. April Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 



 

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

                       Retail Revenues Idx

 



 

 

                       Services Rev Idx

 



 

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous 15)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.0M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.5M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.9M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Wednesday's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6622.43 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6951.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6951.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6622.43. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6408.50.    



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 2741.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2649.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2649.66. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.     



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 141-14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-09 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 146-02. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 147-03. First support is the overnight low crossing at 142-09. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.



June T-notes were lower overnight and below February's low crossing at 119.140 as it renewed the decline off the September-2017-high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, monthly support crossing at 117.180 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.174 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.174. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 121.120. First support is the overnight low crossing at 119.065. Second support is monthly support crossing at 117.180.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: JuneNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.54 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 69.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 72.85. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 67.25. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.54.  



June heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the February-2015-high crossing at 216.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.91 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 212.44. Second resistance is the February-2015-high crossing at 216.33. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.43. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.91. 



June unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, monthly resistance crossing at 217.77 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 210.23. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 217.77. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 206.66. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.11. 



June Henry natural gas was lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last Wednesday's high, April's low crossing at 2.660 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 2.873 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 2.818. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.873. First support is April's low crossing at 2.660. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.638.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight and is challenging the upper boundary of this year's trading range crossing at 90.49. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018 decline crossing at 91.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 89.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 91.20. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-2017/February-2018-decline crossing at 92.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 89.46. Second support is April's low crossing at 88.94.



The June Euro was lower overnight while extending the trading of the past three-months. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing 122.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 124.68. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 125.53. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97. 



The June British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.3945 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4206 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 1.4413. Second high is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4617. First support is April's low crossing at 1.4007. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3945.  



The June Swiss Franc were lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0468 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0408. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0468. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.0274. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241.



The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 78.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.24 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is April's high crossing at 79.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.46. First support is the reaction low crossing at 78.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.35.  



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9237 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9397 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9397. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.9615. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9237. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9148.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was sharply lower due to a stronger US Dollar overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1337.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of April's low crossing at 1322.60. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1345.30 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1359.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1369.40. First support is the 38% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1326.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50.



May silver was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.630 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 17.572 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 87% retracement level of the January-March-decline crossing at 17.572. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 16.829. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.630. 



May copper was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 329.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 319.55. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 307.09. Second support is April's low crossing at 297.00. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off April's high. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.74 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.83 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 3.92 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.74 1/2. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.69 1/2.  



May wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, March's low crossing at 4.41 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 4.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 4.94. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.61 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.41 1/2.      



May Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 1/2-cents at 4.82 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as forecast for rain triggered today's sell off. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 5.28 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.76. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.56. 



May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Last Friday's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.03 confirmed that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews this month's rally, March's high crossing at 6.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 6.34. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. First support is the overnight low crossing at 5.98 1/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.71. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were steady to fractionally higher overnight as they consolidate some of decline off April's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, the reaction low crossing at 10.03 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.43 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 10.67 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the overnight low crossing at 10.26 3/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 10.03. 



May soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, April's low crossing at 363.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 393.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 370.40. Second support is April's low crossing at 363.70. 



May soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.88. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 32.73. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 31.14. Second support is the January-2016-low crossing at 30.67.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $0.53 at $77.55. 



June hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the reaction high, crossing at 79.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 81.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.52. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25. 



June cattle closed up $0.73 at 103.73. 



June cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 106.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.14. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.

 

May Feeder cattle closed up $0.90 at $139.33. 



May Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 142.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.70. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 134.33. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.25 is the next downside target.      



May cocoa closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 29.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  



May sugar closed lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.17 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cotton closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 86.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 

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