KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 23, 2018
8:30 AM ET. March CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.88)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.37)
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.1)
9:45 AM ET. April US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.7)
10:00 AM ET. March Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.54M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.4)
Median Price (USD) (previous 241700)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)
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The June NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6615.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 6951.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6951.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6615.98. Second support is April's low crossing at 6306.75.
The June S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2645.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 2741.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2645.80. Second support is April's low crossing at 2554.00.
The Dow closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off April's low. U.S. stocks fell today as weakness in both energy and technology stocks offset the latest batch of corporate earnings, which continued to largely beat expectations. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,230.24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 24,977.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 24,977.65. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 25,449.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,230.24. Second support is April's low crossing at 23,344.52.
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June T-bonds closed down 26/32's at 142-31.
June T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 142-30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-13 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 148-28. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-30. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.
June T-notes closed down 110 pts at 119-155.
June T-notes closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off April's high, February's low crossing at 119.140 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.198 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is April's high crossing at 121.110. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257. First support is today's low crossing at 119.180. Second resistance is February's low crossing at 119.140.
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May crude oil closed higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.48 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 69.56. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 65.48. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.81.
May heating oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 216.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.97 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 212.85. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 216.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 208.07. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 203.97.
May unleaded gas closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 210.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 209.87. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 210.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 205.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 202.46.
May Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Friday as it erased most of Thursday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 2.790 would open the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at 2.831. If May renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 2.600 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.790. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is March's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Third support is December's low crossing at 2.504.
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The June Dollar closed higher on Friday while extending this year's trading range.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. From a broader perspective, June needs to close above 90.49 or below 78.83 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.
The June Euro closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97 is the next downside target. Closes above April's high crossing at 124.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at 1.4007 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4226 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.4413. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 1.4617. First support is April's low crossing at 1.4007. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3779.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0485 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0485. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0625. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0292. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0241.
The June Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.63 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 78.10 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 80.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 79.92. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.45. First support is the reaction low crossing at 78.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 77.35.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9237 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9414 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9414. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9511. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9238.
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June gold closed lower on Friday due to strength in the US Dollar. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1337.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 1375.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1369.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1375.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off April's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 17.460 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.612 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.460. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.612. Second support is April's low crossing at 16.150.
May copper closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 329.05 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.27 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 319.55. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.27. Second support is April's low crossing at 297.00.
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May Corn closed down 5 1/4-cents at 3.76 3/4.
May corn closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off April's high. Corn exports of 43.0 million bushels of old crop sales and another 4.4 million bushels of new crop sales led to 47.4 million bushels in total sales last week. That topped trade estimates of 41.3 million bushels and was ahead of the previous week’s total of 35.3 million bushels. The weekly rate needed to meet USDA forecasts fell to 14.2 million bushels. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 374 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.84 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 3.92 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.79 1/2. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 374 1/2.
May wheat closed down 13 1/4-cents at 4.63 1/2.
May wheat closed lower on Friday ending a three-day correction off Monday's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 4.61 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of March's low crossing at 4.41 1/2. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.18 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.61 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.41 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 1/2-cents at 4.82 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as forecast for rain triggered today's sell off. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.99 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is April's high crossing at 5.28 3/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.76. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.56.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 13 1/4-cents at 6.00.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.03 1/4 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 6.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 6.34. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. First support is today's low crossing at 5.99 3/4. Second support is April's low crossing at 5.71.
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May soybeans closed down 7 3/4-cents at 10.29 1/2.
May soybeans closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off last Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.39 1/4 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 10.67 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 10.03. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.83 1/2.
May soybean meal closed up $1.40 at 374.70.
May soybean meal closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, April's low crossing at 363.70 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 389.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is April's low crossing at 363.70.
May soybean oil closed down 12 pts. At 31.29.
May soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.73. First support is Monday's low crossing at 31.14. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67.
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June hogs closed down $0.53 at $77.55.
June hogs closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the reaction high, crossing at 79.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 81.33. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.52. Second support is April's low crossing at 70.25.
June cattle closed up $0.73 at 103.73.
June cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. If June extends the rally off April's low, the reaction high crossing at 106.93 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.93. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 110.14. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed up $0.90 at $139.33.
May Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.98 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 142.65. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 142.70. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 134.33. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.
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May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11.48 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.25 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 29.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.17 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 86.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.