INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - April 13, 2018, 4:40 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, April 16, 2018   



8:30 AM ET. March Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -0.1%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.2%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.3%)



8:30 AM ET. G24 Committee of the Whole



8:30 AM ET. April Empire State Manufacturing Survey



                       Mfg Idx (previous 22.5)



                       Employment Idx (previous 9.4)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 16.8)



                       Prices Received (previous 22.4)



10:00 AM ET. February Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales



                       Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)



10:00 AM ET. April NAHB Housing Market Index



                       Housing Mkt Idx (previous 70)



4:00 PM ET. February Treasury International Capital Data



  N/A              Emancipation Day in Washington, DC



  N/A              Patriot's Day in Massachusetts and Maine


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6647.84 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6647.84. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6756.43. First support is April's low crossing at 6306.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50. 



The June S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2651.20 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2692.49 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2692.49. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2741.00. First support is April's low crossing at 2554.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.



The Dow closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,653.81 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If the Dow resumes the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 23,101.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,653.81. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 25,449.15. First support is April's low crossing at 23,344.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 23,101.28.     



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 5/32's at 145-17.



June T-bonds closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-10 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 148-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142-30.     



June T-notes closed up 15 pts at 120-160.



June T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.128 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257 is the next upside target. First resistance is April's high crossing at 121.110. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.128. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 119.220.     



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



May crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last June's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 67.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46.First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.46. Second support is April's low crossing at 61.81. 



May heating oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 216.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 212.27. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 216.58. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 202.27. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.60.  



May unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, January's high crossing at 210.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 208.89. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 210.12. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 200.40. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.94.



May Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the previous reaction high crossing at 2.764 would renew the rally off April's low while opening the door for a possible test of March's high crossing at 2.831. If May renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 2.600 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is March's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Third support is December's low crossing at 2.504.



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off last Friday's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline March's low crossing at 88.53 is the next downside target. From a broader perspective, June needs to close above 90.49 or below 78.83 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range and point the direction of the next trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83. 



The June Euro closed higher on Friday, The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.   



The June British Pound closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 1.4404 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4056 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4352. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is April's low crossing at 1.4007. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3779. 



The June Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0538 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0538. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0670. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.0419. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344. 



The June Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 80.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 79.83. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.45. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.78. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 78.06.  



The June Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9237 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9448 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9413. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9448. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-March-rally crossing at 0.9238.   



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



June gold closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1322.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 1375.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1369.40. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1375.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.



May silver closed higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off last Thursday's low, the reaction high crossing at 17.025 is the next upside target. If May extends Thursday's decline, April's low crossing at 16.150 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.460. First support is April's low crossing at 16.150. Second support is March's low crossing at 16.100.     



May copper closed slightly higher on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 304.97 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 319.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 319.20. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 329.05. First support is April's low crossing at 297.00. Second support is March's low crossing at 293.75.  



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed down 2 1/2-cents at 3.86 1/4. 



May corn closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.92 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.80 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.69 1/2.  



May wheat closed down 7-cents at 4.74. 



May wheat closed lower on Friday as seven-day precipitation forecasts suggest that additional moisture may fall on some key parched production areas such as Kansas and Nebraska in the coming week. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 4.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.18 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.71 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 3/4.       



May Kansas City Wheat closed down 11 3/4-cents at 4.95 3/4. 



May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it extended this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.86 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 5.48 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.86 1/2. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.56. 



May Minneapolis wheat closed down 6-cents at 6.17. 



May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as moisture moves across portions of spring wheat country. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.99 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 6.36 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 6.34. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 6.08 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.99 3/4.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed down 8 1/4-cents at 10.52 1/2. 



May soybeans closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening with Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.34 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 10.67 1/4. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.34 1/2. Second support is April's low crossing at 9.83 1/2.



May soybean meal closed down $1.10 at 382.30. 



May soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 372.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 389.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 38% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 369.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00.  



May soybean oil closed down 18 pts. At 31.45. 



May soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.73. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September 2017/ March 2018 decline crossing at 33.33. First support is Monday's low crossing at 31.29. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed up $0.40 at $77.65. 



June hogs closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.36 is the next upside target. If Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.71 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.36. First support is April's low crossing at 70.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 69.77.



June cattle closed down $0.05 at 103.65. 



June cattle closed lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.77. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.41. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.

 

May Feeder cattle closed up $0.40 at $140.38. 



May Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off April's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off April's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 143.73 is the next upside target. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 141.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 143.73. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 134.33. Second support is April's low crossing at 128.88.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.04 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.      



May cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off April's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.55 is the next downside target.  



May sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 11.88 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.41 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at 86.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.22 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.  

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