KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 1, 2019
8:30 AM ET. February Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.9%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
9:45 AM ET. March US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.0)
10:00 AM ET. February Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous +1.3%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +0.6%)
10:00 AM ET. March ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (previous 54.2)
Prices Idx (previous 49.4)
Employment Idx (previous 52.3)
Inventories (previous 53.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 55.5)
Production Idx (previous 54.8)
11:00 AM ET. March Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 50.6)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 closes higher on Friday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7291.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off December's low, last-September high crossing at 7767.00 is the next upside target. First resistance isthe 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. Second resistance is last-September's high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7291.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7093.30.
The June S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off last-Friday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2760.31 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2861.00. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 50-day moving low crossing at 2760.31. Second support is March's low crossing at 2728.00.
The Dow closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 26,241.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,461.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 25,461.928. Second support is March's low crossing at 25,208.00.
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June T-bonds closed down 7/32's at 149-26.
June T-bonds closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-28 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 150-21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 152-01. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 148-08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146-28.
June T-notes closed down 65-pts. at 124.095.
June T-notes closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off last October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.059 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally. weekly resistance crossing at 125.265 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 124.310. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 125.265. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123.277. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.059.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil closed higher on Friday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 60.73. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 56.47.
May heating oil closed slightly lower on Friday while extending the February-March trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 193.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 201.58. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 211.17. First support is the reaction low crossing at 193.69. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 181.97.
May unleaded gas closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 192.23. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 200.45. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 184.62. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 174.45.
May Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 2.620 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.810 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 2.897. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.923. First support is today's low crossing at 2.656. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.620.
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The June Dollar closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at 97.16 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.86 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is March's low crossing at 95.17. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.38.
The June Euro closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off March's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.47 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 115.33. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.
The June British Pound closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1.3060 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3323 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3026. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0082 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0233 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0190. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0233. First support is March's low crossing at 0.9970. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.48 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.48. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Multiple closes above Monday's high crossing at 0.0918 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 0.0918. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0893.
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April gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 1280.80 are needed to renew the decline off February's high. If April renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1349.80 is a potential upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1324.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is March's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver closed higher due to short covering on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.644 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.601 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.601. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.060. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.644.
May copper closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off Monday's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's rally, February's high is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.89 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 284.89. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 275.95.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down 17 1/4-cents at 3.56 3/4.
May corn closed sharply lower on Friday following today's bearish quarterly grain stocks and planting intentions report. The USDA estimated 2019 corn acres at 92.792 million acres this year, which was above 2018’s total of 89.1 million acres. The USDA's estimate was above analysts average guesses of 91.3 million acres. The USDA is lowered corn stocks from 8.892 billion bushels down to 8.605 billion bushels. But this estimate is well above analysts estimates of 8.309 billion bushels. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, psychological support crossing at 3.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.72 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 3.80 3/4. Second resistance is the February 25th reaction high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.56. Second support is psychological support crossing at 3.50.
May wheat closed down 5 1/4-cents at 4.59 1/4.
May wheat closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. The USDA estimated all-wheat plantings are 45.754 million acres, down from 47.8 million acres in 2018 as durum, winter and spring wheat acres are all expected to make moderate declines compared to a year ago. However, rising wheat stocks will continue to pressure to grain prices. Today’s USDA estimate of 1.591 billion bushels was even higher than the average trade guess of 1.551 billion bushels. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.56 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.87 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.78. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.87 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.56 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.27.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 4.30.
May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.71 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.54. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.71 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 5 1/4-cents at 5.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.59 1/2 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, March's crossing at 5.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.66 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 5.76 3/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 5.44. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down 5 1/2-cents at 8.84.
May soybeans closed lower on Friday as it extends this year's decline. The USDA estimated this year's planted acreage at 84.617 million acres down from last year’s 89.2 million acres. The USDA estimated soybean stocks at 2.716 billion bushels up from 2.109 million bushels a year ago. That estimate was very close to analyst pre-report expectations with the average trade guess of 2.728 billion bushels.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2018 rally crossing at 8.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.01. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.16. First support is today's low crossing at 8.83. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2018 rally crossing at 8.78.
May soybean meal closed down $0.90 at 305.60.
May soybean meal closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 300.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 310.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 303.60. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil closed down 25-pt. at 28.38.
May soybean oil closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.90. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.34. First support is today's low crossing at 28.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 28.17.
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June hogs closed down $3.25 at $88.55.
June hogs closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 97.82. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.69. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.10.
April cattle closed down $0.83 at 125.70.
April cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019 rally crossing at 125.45 is the next downside target. Closes above 20-day moving average crossing at 128.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.16. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.45. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.80.
April Feeder cattle closed down $0.70 at $145.25.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145.72 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 150.80. Second resistance is last-October's high crossing at 155.70. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.62 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 9.12 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 23.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.01 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
May sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed higher on Friday following today's neutral to friendly USDA reports. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 79.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.42 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks again tallpine!