KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, April 9, 2018
9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting
10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 107.74)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.6%)
1100/1500 IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
6:00 AM ET. March NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism
Small Business Idx (previous 107.6)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.4%)
8:30 AM ET. March PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous +0.2%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.4%0
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
10:00 AM ET. February Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.3M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.2M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as traders again shook off concerns about a global trade war, at least for now. Gains for U.S. stock futures in the early going point to a comeback on Wall Street after a sharp selloff on Friday. Upbeat comments from President Donald Trump and his administration on China helped lift sentiment, which has been battered back-and-forth by recent tit-for-tat trade hostilities between the world’s two biggest economies. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6740.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 6654.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6740.09. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 6306.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.
The June S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2674.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2674.16. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2708.17. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 2554.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-01 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 147-03. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-11.
June T-notes were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 122.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.193 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 121.120. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.193. Second support is March's low crossing at 119.220.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: MayNymex crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, March's low crossing at 59.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 61.81. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.
May heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidated some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.83 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 207.28 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 207.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 208.95. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.83. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.90.
May unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 193.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 208.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 205.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.89. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 193.63. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.70.
May Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it continues to form a symmetrical triangle off March's low.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 2.764 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes last Monday's decline, March's low crossing at 2.610 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is March's low crossing at 2.610. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.600.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-months. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 89.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.
The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 122.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.53. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the reaction low crossing at 1.3945 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4130 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1.4294. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1.3945. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3926.
The June Swiss Franc were steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0574 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0523. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0570. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.0422. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0344.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.67 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.59 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.67. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.41. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.01. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.59.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9327 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9464 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.9464. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 0.9615. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9327. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-March-rally crossing at 0.9237.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 1362.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1362.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two and a half months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 16.100 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 16.810 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 16.810. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 16.895. First support is March's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 308.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 308.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.15. First support is March's low crossing at 293.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the July-January-decline crossing at 4.01 is the next upside target. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.78 3/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 3.69 1/4.
May wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.57 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 4.81 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.57 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at 4.44 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 5.06 3/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the March 19th high crossing at 4.99 1/4 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.74 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.06 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.33 1/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last Wednesday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.11 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.90 1/4 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.11. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.29 3/4. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 5.71. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight following last Friday's key reversal up signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last Wednesday's low, March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 10.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.87 1/4. Second support is February's low crossing at 9.79 1/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 363.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 393.30. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 32.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 32.73. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. First support is March's low crossing at 31.35. Second support is the January-2016-low crossing at 30.67.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed down $0.55 at $73.28.
June hogs closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 69.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.02. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 70.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 69.77.
June cattle closed down $2.73 at 102.32.
June cattle closed lower on Friday as it erased all of Thursday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 106.92. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.41. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed down $2.43 at $135.62.
May Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.23. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144.64. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 130.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed lower on Friday extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.02 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.57 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.26 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 76.44 is the next downside target.