KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 21, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Week U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 846.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1914.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 346K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 229K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1776000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +18K)
8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -4.1)
Prices Paid (previous 21.8)
Employment (previous 14.5)
New Orders (previous -2.4)
Prices Received (previous 27.7)
Delivery Times (previous 13.6)
Inventories (previous 3.3)
Shipments (previous -5.3)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Services * Release delayed from 7 March due to the
partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1186B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -204B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, March 22, 2019
8:30 AM ET. New York Fed Research Conference on Fin-Tech
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.2)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.7)
10:00 AM ET. February Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 4.94M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.9)
Median Price (USD) (previous 247500)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)
2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S.
Govt * Release delayed from 12 Mar due to the partial
shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7221.09 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. Second resistance is the October 3rd 2018 high crossing at 7767.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7221.09. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 7005.48.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2802.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2856.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2802.58. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2733.54.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 147-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 147-12. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 147-31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 143-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 141.27.
June T-notes were higher overnight and posted a new contract high as it spiked above January's high crossing at 123.175. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, weekly resistance crossing at 123.270 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.094 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 123.200. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 123.270. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.293. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.094.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 59.02. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.18. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 55.10.
April heating oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. If April extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.08 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 223.08. First support is the reaction low crossing at 194.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 194.08.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 199.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 191.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 199.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 180.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 170.45.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.752 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 2.897 are needed to renew the rally off February's low. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.897. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.938. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.752. Second support is the Feb. 27th reaction low crossing at 2.732.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss but remains below broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.70. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the late-January low crossing at 94.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 95.17. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.38.
The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the late-January high crossing at 116.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 114.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 115.35. Second resistance is the late-January high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the April-10th-2017 low crossing at 111.05.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3134 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3134. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0254 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0064 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.0191. Second resistance is the September-January downtrend line crossing near 1.0254. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.0064. Second support is March's low crossing at 0.9970.
The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past six-days. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.0911 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off January's high, last-November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0911. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 0.0893.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 1332.40 is the next upside target. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1332.40. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is March's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 15.550 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.550. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.657. First support is March's low crossing at 14.985. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935.
May copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 287.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the reaction low crossing at 287.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 282.39.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher in overnight trading. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 3.75 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4 is the next downside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.75 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.80. First support is March's low crossing at 3.61. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4.
May wheat was lower in quiet overnight trading as it consolidates recent gains.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.57 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.57. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.94 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 4.27. Second support is long-term support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/4-cents at 4.44.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.42 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.42 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.81. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.57 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.77 1/4. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is March's low crossing at 5.44. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.071/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the November 26th reaction low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.07 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.18 3/4. First support is March's low crossing at 8.87 3/4. Second support is the November-26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.
May soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.80 would signal that the short-term trend is turning neutral to bullish. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 307.20 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 311.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 307.20. Second support is March's low crossing at 300.30.
May soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.89. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 29.15. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $3.00 at $73.83.
April hogs closed limit up on Wednesday and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 98.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.85 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 73.83. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 98.17. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.98.
April cattle closed up $0.45 at 129.58.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above March's high crossing at 130.45 are needed to renew the rally off November's low. Closes below March's low crossing at 1265.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.41. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.76.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.53 at $148.33.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 147.83 would confirm an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 143.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is March's low crossing at 143.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 142.62.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off last-October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 92.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.79 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday and below the previous reaction low thereby renewing the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 21.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.68 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 13.42 is the next upside target. May renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-decline crossing at 76.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!!