KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, March 18, 2019
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Financial Report – Industry
10:00 AM ET. March NAHB Housing Market Index
Housing Mkt Idx (previous 62)
11:30 AM ET. Second phase of U.S. President Donald Trump's FY'20 budget proposal released
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +1.2%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
10:00 AM ET. January Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.2M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 384.0)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +2.3%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 250.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +4.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1108.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 449.072M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.862M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 246.09M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.624M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 136.369M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.383M)
Refinery Usage (previous 87.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.808M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.318M)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 2.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 10)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 3.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.00)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2018 (previous 2.4%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 2.9%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2020 (previous 3.1%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2021 (previous 3.1%)
Thursday, March 21, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Week U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 846.6K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1914.9K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 346K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 229K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1776000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +18K)
8:30 AM ET. March Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -4.1)
Prices Paid (previous 21.8)
Employment (previous 14.5)
New Orders (previous -2.4)
Prices Received (previous 27.7)
Delivery Times (previous 13.6)
Inventories (previous 3.3)
Shipments (previous -5.3)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Services * Release delayed from 7 March due to the
partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Leading Index
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1186B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -204B)
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, March 22, 2019
8:30 AM ET. New York Fed Research Conference on Fin-Tech
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 56.2)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53.7)
10:00 AM ET. February Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. January Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.1%)
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 4.94M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -1.2%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.9)
Median Price (USD) (previous 247500)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +2.8%)
2:00 PM ET. February Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S.
Govt * Release delayed from 12 Mar due to the partial
shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7172.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 16th high crossing at 7424.25. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7524.41. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7172.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average low crossing at 6952.37.
The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2795.45 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 2834.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2795.45. Second support is the50-day moving average crossing at 2716.97.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the rally off last week's low, January's high crossing at 147-31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-09 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 146-17. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 147-31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 143-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 141.27.
June T-notes were higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 123.175 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.076 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 123.035. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.175. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121.063. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.150.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 58.95. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 54.67.
April heating oil was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.74 is the next downside target. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 223.08. First support is the reaction low crossing at 194.52. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 192.74.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 178.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 199.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 178.31. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 168.35.
April Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.752 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last-Monday's gap crossing at 2.856 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is March's high crossing at 2.896. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.938. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 2.752. Second support is the Feb. 27th reaction low crossing at 2.732.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.64 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.64. Second support is the late-February low crossing at 95.24.
The June Euro was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the late-February high, the April-10th-2017 low crossing at 111.05 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.20. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.89. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the April-10th-2017 low crossing at 111.05.
The June British Pound was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3109 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3441. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3109. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.
The June Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0069 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off the late-February high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0069. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0145. First support is March's low crossing at 0.9970. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.45. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. First support is March's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off January's high, last-November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 0.0911 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0911. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is last-November's low crossing at 0.0893.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1309.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1309.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is March's low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.517 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.517. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.677. First support is March's low crossing at 14.985. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935.
May copper was higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 287.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the reaction low crossing at 287.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 280.69.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was fractionally lower in late-overnight trading. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.73. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.81. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.61. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains off March's low.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.61. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.98. First support is March's low crossing at 4.27. Second support is long-term support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 6 1/2-cents at 4.43.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.47. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.85 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.18 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.66. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.09 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off February's high, the November 26th reaction low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.09 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.20 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 8.87 3/4. Second support is the November-26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.
May soybean meal was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.06 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 312.60. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 300.30. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.05 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. First support is the overnight low crossing at 29.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $3.00 at $68.80.
April hogs closed limit up on Friday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 70.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.65 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 65.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 68.12. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.65.
April cattle closed up $1.70 at 129.10.
April cattle closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 129.88 would temper the bearish outlook. If April renews this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.41 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 125.41. Second support the 38% retracement level of the 2018-2019-rally crossing at 122.76.
April Feeder cattle closed up $2.28 at $146.93.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 147.83 would confirm an upside breakout of the trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 143.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.78 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 92.45 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.82 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 21.12 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.68 would confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.14 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!