KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, April 5, 2018
7:30 AM ET. March Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -20%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1455.8K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 899.1K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 428.6K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 215K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1871000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +35K)
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -56.8B; previous -56.60B)
Exports (USD) (previous 200.91B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -1.3%)
Imports (USD) (previous 257.51B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +0.0%)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1383B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -63B)
11:00 AM ET. March Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.8)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
N/A IMF Global Financial Stability Report analytical chapters
Friday, April 6, 2018
8:30 AM ET. March U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +173K; previous +313K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 4.0%; previous 4.1%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 26.75)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.04)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.15%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +2.6%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +26K)
Private Payroll (previous +287K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.0%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
3:00 PM ET. February Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +15.0B; previous +13.91B)
Monday, April 9, 2018
9:30 AM ET. SEC Fixed Income Market Structure Advisory Committee Meeting
10:00 AM ET. March Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 107.74)
ETI, Y/Y% (previous +5.6%)
1100/1500 IMF World Economic Outlook analytical chapters
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The June NASDAQ 100 posted a huge key reversal up on Wednesday after trading sharply lower in early trading. Early weakness was triggered by China's overnight announcement that it would impose $50 billion dollars worth of tariffs on some 106 different products in response to our tariffs place on Chinese steel and aluminum products. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turned neutral to bullish with additional strength. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6812.01 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6592.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6812.01. First support is today's low crossing at 6306.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.
The June S&P 500 closed higher on Wednesday as it recovered from an initial sell off triggered by China's overnight announcement that it will impose $50 billion of tariffs on some 106 U.S. products and commodities in retaliation for our tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2691.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2629.54. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2691.51. First support is Monday's low crossing at 2554.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.
The Dow closed higher on Wednesday after being down as much as 510 points in early trading.Worries persist about a potential global trade war were helped by China’s response to the U.S. government’s move. China’s Ministry of Commerce said the tariffs would affect $50 billion of U.S. goods.Chinese officials said they plan to impose tariffs of up to 25% on 106 American products, including soybeans and airplanes. This is in response to the Trump administration announcement on Tuesday that it would impose $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing makes major trade and investment concessions soon. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,457.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow extends the decline off March's high, weekly support crossing at 23,101.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,457.91. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,937.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 23,344.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 23,101.28.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
June T-bonds closed down 13/32's at 145-15.
June T-bonds closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 148-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114-22. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 142-30.
June T-notes closed down 40 pts at 120-230.
June T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.158 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 121.110. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 121.257. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.158. Second resistance is the reaction low crossing at 119.220.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
May crude oil closed lower on Wednesday but well off early-session lows.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.65 are needed to confirm that a double top with January's high has been posted. If April resumes the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.65. Second support is March's low crossing at 59.91.
May heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.16 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 208.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 207.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 208.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.16. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.90.
May unleaded gas posted an upside reversal on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.79 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 210.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 205.45. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 208.89. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.79. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-March-rally crossing at 192.70.
May Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 2.831 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 2.600 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 2.764. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 2.831. First support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.504.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The June Dollar posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past three-months.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above 90.35 or below 78.83 are needed to confirm a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is March's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.83.
The June Euro posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97 is the next downside target. If June resumes the rally off the March 1st low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.54. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is the March 1st low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4352 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4059 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4352. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.4059. Second support is March's low crossing at 1.3779.
The June Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0596 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0596. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0709. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0471. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.
The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off March's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.82 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.52 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 78.47. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 78.82. First support is Monday's low crossing at 77.35. Second support is March's low crossing at 76.33.
The June Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9393 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9542. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of 2016's trading range crossing at 0.9732. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9393. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.9343.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
June gold closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 1369.60 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 1362.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.
May silver closed closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below March's low crossing at 16.100 would confirm a downside breakout of the February-March trading range. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.674 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.657 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.657. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. First support is March's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper closed lower on Wednesday due in response the overnight announcement by China regarding the placement of tariffs on some 106 U.S. products and commodities. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.58 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 306.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.02.First support is March's low crossing at 293.75. Second support is last September's low crossing at 293.25.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May Corn closed down 8-cents at 3.80 1/2.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday following the overnight announcement by China regarding their placing tariffs on some 106 U. S. goods and commodities including corn. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with today's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.92 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.69 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.64.
May wheat closed down 2-cents at 4.55 1/2.
May wheat closed lower on Wednesday while extending the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the March 19th gap crossing at 4.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.66 3/4. Second resistance is the March 19th gap crossing at 4.67. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.41 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/4-cents at 4.86.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the March 19th high crossing at 4.99 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.91. Second resistance is the March 19th gap crossing at 4.99 1/4. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.56. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 6 1/4-cents at 5.76 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.87 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.01 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 5.71. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down 21 1/4-cents at 10.16 3/4.
May soybeans closed lower on Wednesday following China's announcement that it will place a tariff on soybeans of up to 25% along with 105 additional products and commodities. A short covering rally tempered early-session losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.72 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.60 1/2. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.87 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.72.
May soybean meal closed up $1.50 at 381.50.
May soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, March's high crossing at 404.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 366.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 389.70. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil closed down 59 pts. At 31.75.
May soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 32.96 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 32.96. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the September 2017/ March 2018 decline crossing at 33.33. First support is March's low crossing at 31.58. Second support is the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
June hogs closed up $1.62 at $73.28.
June hogs closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 69.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.29. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 70.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at 69.77.
June cattle closed up $2.70 at 102.33.
June cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it rebounds off support marked by the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63 as it extended the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.44 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 104.35. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 108.44. First support is the 87% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 99.63. Second support is the March 2017 low crossing at 96.40.
May Feeder cattle closed up $4.15 at $135.13.
May Feeder cattle posted a huge key reversal up with today's higher close on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 126.09 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.71. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 145.00. First support is today's low crossing at 130.80. Second support is weekly support crossing at 126.09.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.15 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20-day moving average confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.62 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it renewed the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 76.44 is the next downside target.