INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - March 8, 2019, 4:47 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, March 11, 2019 



8:30 AM ET. January Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services



                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous -1.2%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous -1.8%)



                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous -1.4%)



10:00 AM ET. January Regional & State Employment & Unemployment



10:00 AM ET. December Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales * Release delayed

                        from 15 Feb due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which

                        ended 25 January.



                       Total Inventories (previous -0.1%))



10:00 AM ET. February Employment Trends Index



                       ETI (previous 109.56)



                       ETI, Y/Y%



  N/A              U.S. President Donald Trump's Fiscal Year 2020 budget proposal delivered to

                        the U.S. Congress.



  N/A              IIB Annual Washington Conference continues, with SEC Chairman

                    Jay Clayton speaking


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The June NASDAQ 100 closed lower for the third day in a row on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 6833.43 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 7292.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is today's low crossing at 6965.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6833.43.  



The June S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off March's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2677.57 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2810.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is today's low crossing at 2728.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2677.57.  



The Dow closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,808.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is today's low crossing at 25,252.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,808.73.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



June T-bonds closed up 4/32's at 145-29.



June T-bonds closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally, February's high crossing at 146-17 is the next downside target. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 143-10 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 146-17. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 147-31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 143-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 141-27.         



June T-notes closed up 20-pts. at 122.225.



June T-notes closed higher on Friday as they extended this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends this week's rally. January's high crossing at 123.175 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.049 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 122.305. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.175. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 121.063. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.150.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the reaction low crossing at 51.62. Second support is December's low crossing at 43.00.



April heating oil closed slightly lower on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 189.11. 



April unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 172.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 181.60. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 172.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 164.29.



April Henry natural gas closed steady to slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.753 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.896. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.836. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.753.       



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The June Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 97.16. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 96.08. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.53.    



The June Euro closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the January-2017 low crossing at 110.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.10 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.46. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.62. Second support is the January 2017 low crossing at 110.16.     



The June British Pound closed lower for the seventh-day in a row on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3133 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.3422. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3046. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2854.   



The June Swiss Franc posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0078 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0078. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0175. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 0.9970. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.



The June Canadian Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 74.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.59 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.59. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.46. First support is today's low crossing at 74.43. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.  



The June Japanese Yen closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rebound off the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0909 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0915. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0893.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1313.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1304.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1313.90. First support is January's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.



May silver closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.649 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.429. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.649. First support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.644.          



May copper closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.71. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 277.55. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed down 1-cent at 3.64 1/4. 



May corn closed lower on Friday following today’s bearish WASDE report. The USDA report showed that exports were lowered by 75 million bushels to 2.375 billion. Ending stocks were raised 100 million bushels to 1.835 billion bushels. The USDA also lowered its season-average price assessment by 5 cents for a new midpoint of $3.55 per bushel. Today's mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.72 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.77 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 3.62 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.55 1/4.  



May wheat closed up a 1/4-cent at 4.38 1/2. 



May wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Today's WASDE report was bearish as the USDA lowered both domestic demand and higher supplies. The USDA lowered wheat exports by 35 million bushels below February estimates to 965 million bushels. Ending stocks were raised by 45 million bushels to 1.055 billion bushels. USDA left its season-average farm price of $5.15 per bushel unchanged. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.56 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.34 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.19 1/4.     



May Kansas City Wheat closed up 3 1/4-cents at 4.30 3/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.42. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.62 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.25 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.  



May Minneapolis wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 5.49 1/4. 



May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed down 7 1/2-cents at 8.95.



May soybeans closed lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. Today's WASDE report saw higher crush totals and lower ending stocks compared to February’s report. Soybean stocks were lowered by 10 million for a total of 900 million. USDA didn’t alter its season-average price projections, which range between $8.10 and $9.10 per bushel. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 9.24 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. First support is today's low crossing at 8.92 1/4. Second support is the November 26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.  



May soybean meal closed down $3.00 at 303.30. 



May soybean meal closed lower on Friday following a bearish WASDE report. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 300.0 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 313.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 302.80. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.  



May soybean oil closed down 1-pt. at 29.66. 



May soybean oil closed slightly lower on Friday and tested support marked by the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.51. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30.31 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.16. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.51. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08.    

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $2.83 at $60.55. 



April hogs closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.76 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 56.80 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 61.76. First support is February's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.   



April cattle closed up $0.73 at 129.68. 



April cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.37 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.37. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.   

 

April Feeder cattle closed up $1.70 at $147.70. 



April Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and and is poised to test the upper boundary of this winter's trading range crossing at 147.83. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above trading range resistance crossing at 147.83 would confirm an upside breakout of the trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 143.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.01 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cocoa closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are posed to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength, that would signal a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.05 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 21.12 is the next downside target.         



May sugar closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.72 would confirm that a low has been posted.   



May cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.14 is the next upside target.   

Comments
By metmike - March 8, 2019, 5:46 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!

By silverspiker - March 9, 2019, 10:03 p.m.
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.....    Shakin' the (L)haRD time pOrK blues..... 

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