KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, March 7, 2019
7:30 AM ET. February Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +20.7%)
8:30 AM ET. Week En U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1360.4K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 2196.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 537.4K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (expected +1.6%; previous +2.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.7%; previous +0.9%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 221K; previous 225K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +8K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1805000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +79K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1539B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -166B)
12:00 PM ET. February Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. January Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +16.25B; previous +16.55B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
Friday, March 8, 2019
8:30 AM ET. February U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +180K; previous +304K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.9%; previous 4.0%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 27.56)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.03)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.11%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous 2.2%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +8K)
Private Payroll (previous +296K)
Participation Rate (previous 63.2%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg (previous -1K)
8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected 1.18M; previous 1.078M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected +9.5%; previous -11.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.29M; previous 1.326M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous +0.3%)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7090.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7292.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7241.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7292.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7090.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7030.50.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this winter's gains. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2771.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If June resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 2832.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 2832.80. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2879.73. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2771.07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2690.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145-11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 143-10 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 146-17. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 147-31. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 143-10. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 141.27.
June T-notes was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 122.086 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If June resumes the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121.063 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.280. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.175. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121.063. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.150.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range for the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.63 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 58.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 57.88. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.63. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 53.08.
April heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 198.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 223.08. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 199.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 188.44.
April unleaded gas was higher overnight as it resumes the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 171.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.70. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 199.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 171.73. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 163.60.
April Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 2.938 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.738 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 2.896. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 2.938. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.819. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.738.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, February's high crossing at 96.68 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 95.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 96.68. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.52.
The June Euro was slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 113.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.17 would open the door for a larger-degree rally off February's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 115.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 116.46. First support is February's low crossing at 113.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 112.62.
The June British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3134 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-decline crossing at 1.3603 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.3445. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3603. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3134. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3042.
The June Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 1.0019 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0182 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0182. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0223. First support is February's low crossing at 1.0019. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The June Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high. If the aforementioned decline continues, December's low crossing at 73.47 is the next likely downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving averagecrossing at 75.63 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 76.46. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 76.75. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 74.48. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.47.
The June Japanese Yen was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 0.0893 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0910. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0922. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is November's low crossing at 0.0893.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1314.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1314.60. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1349.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1280.80. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 1273.20.
May silver was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.674 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.494. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.674. First support is the overnight low crossing at 15.030. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 14.935.
May copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 288.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 277.08.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's loss. Traders are awaiting today's export sales report along with Friday's WASDE supply-demand report for near-term direction. Current low prices for corn along with high input prices are not likely to garner a significant increase in corn acres for the 2019 growing season. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. If May resumes the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.78 3/4. First support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.67 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends this winter's decline.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.85 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.62 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.85 1/2. First support is weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2. Second support is long-term support crossing at 4.19 1/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 12 3/4-cents at 4.38 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat posted a new low close for the year on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.70 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.49. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.70 1/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.32 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the consolidation pattern of the past three-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.73 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.73. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.81 1/4. First support is February's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as they consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 9.24 3/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/2. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. First support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2. Second support is the November-26th low crossing at 8.84 3/4.
May soybean meal was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's loss. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 314.70 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If May resumes the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 300.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 302.80. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.
May soybean oil was lower overnight as it has renewed the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.51 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 30.64 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.16. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.51. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 29.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.83 at $57.08.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. If April extends the rally off February's low, the reaction high crossing at 61.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 56.12 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.08. First support is February's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.
April cattle closed up $0.07 at 128.90.
April cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 127.20. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.
April Feeder cattle closed down $0.75 at $143.65.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Wednesday as it extended losses off last Friday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 142.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 147.33. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.12 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target.
May cocoa closed sharply higher due to technical short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength, that would signal a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.10 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off February's high, December's low crossing at 21.12 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.78 would confirm that a low has been posted.
May cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.14 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!