INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - March 1, 2019, 3:54 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, March 4, 2019 



9:45 AM ET. February ISM-NY Report on Business



                       Business Index (previous 63.4)



10:00 AM ET. December Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place * Release

                        delayed from 1 Feb due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal

                        government which ended 25 January.

                       New Construction



                       Residential Construction



Tuesday, March 5, 2019 



7:30 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren

                      addresses the National Association of Corporate Directors'

                      New England Chapter



7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index



                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.6%)



                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.1%)



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.4%)



                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)



                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.2%)



9:45 AM ET. February US Services PMI



                       PMI, Services (previous 54.2)



10:00 AM ET. December New Residential Sales * Release delayed from 25 Jan due to

                       the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 Jan.



                       New Home Sales (previous 580K)



                       New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +6.6%)



                       New Home Sales Months Supply



10:00 AM ET. March IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index



                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 50.3)



                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 44.5)



10:00 AM ET. February ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business



                       Non-Mfg Composite Idx (previous 56.7)



                       Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 59.7)



                       Prices Idx (previous 59.4)



                       Employment Idx (previous 57.8)



                       New Orders Idx (previous 57.7)



11:00 AM ET. February Global Services PMI



                       PMI, Services   (previous 52.6)



4:30 PM ET.  API Weekly Statistical Bulletin



                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.2M)



                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.8M)



                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.4M)



The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday and is poised to resume the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 7280.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7028.77 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7028.77. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6721.45.  



The March S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2755.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2813.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2755.90. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2641.60.  



The Dow closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,625.19 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,625.19. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,883.04.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed down 27/32's at 144-09.



March T-bonds closed lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of February's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 146-02 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.         



March T-notes closed down 120 points at 121.120.



March T-notes closed lower on Friday marking a downside breakout of February's trading range crossing at 121.190. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 122.002 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



April crude oil posted a key reversal down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the reaction low crossing at 51.62. Second support is December's low crossing at 43.00.



April heating oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 196.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 186.07. 



April unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 168.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 161.60.



April Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.701 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.872. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.938. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.732. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2.589.       



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 96.65 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 97.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.58.Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.06.    



The March Euro closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that short-term top might be in or is near. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.39 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. First support is February's low crossing at 112.61. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.     



The March British Pound closed lower on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3044 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3529 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.3364. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3529. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3044. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2944.   



The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107 is the next upside target. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0107. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0142. First support is February's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.



The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.23. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.  



The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0907 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0886.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1303.40 as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 1281.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1325.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First support is January's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1242.50.



May silver closed sharply lower on Friday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 15.843 would confirm that a low has been posted.First resistance is February's high crossing at 16.295. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 15.196. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 14.935.         



May copper closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 286.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 275.13. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May Corn closed up 1 1/2-cents at 3.72 1/4. 



May corn posted an upside reversal on Friday hinting that the market might have finally exhausted near-term selling. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.81 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.92 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 3.66. Second support is September's low crossing at 3.63 1/4.  



May wheat closed down 2 1/4-cents at 4.57 1/4. 



May wheat closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off February's high. A short covering rally ahead of the close tempered some of today's loss and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.87 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.00 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at 4.47 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2.     



May Kansas City Wheat closed up 1/4-cents at 4.44 3/4.

 

May Kansas City wheat closed fractionally higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off December's high, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.56 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.81 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.32 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.  



May Minneapolis wheat closed down 1-cent at 5.58 1/4. 



May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.77 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is February's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans closed up a 1/4-cents at 9.10 1/2.



May soybeans closed fractionally higher on Friday due to profit taking ahead of the weekend.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 9.34 1/2 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.53. First support is today's low crossing at 9.00 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.  



May soybean meal closed up $1.10 at 307.10. 



May soybean meal posted an upside reversal on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.60 would temper the bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off January's high, psychological support crossing at 300.0 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.50. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is today's low crossing at 302.80. Second support is psychological support crossing at 300.00.  



May soybean oil closed down 4 pts. at 30.21. 



May soybean oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below February's low crossing at 29.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02. First support is February's low crossing at 29.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.61.    

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed up $0.53 at $56.40. 



April hogs closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 57.98. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.33. First support is February's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.   



April cattle closed down $0.30 at 129.55. 



April cattle closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.96 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 130.45. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.96. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.   

 

April Feeder cattle closed down $1.10 at $146.05. 



April Feeder cattle posted a key reversal down on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 147.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.26 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. 



May cocoa closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 22.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.17 would confirm that a low has been posted.         



May sugar closed lower on Friday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.75 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off February's low, October's high crossing at 14.29 is the next upside target.   



May cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.01 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.  

Comments
By metmike - March 2, 2019, 8:34 a.m.
Like Reply

Thank you tallpine!