lets try a new idea here.

there have been commentaries lately on the dow theory.  if the transports or the industrial index does not confirm the other, then it may mean a trend change.  when you have a trend change you look to see if one index confirms the trend change of the other index.

lets apply this to the bond market.

i'll call this the bear theory.

the 10 year rate (interest rates on the 10 yr note),  (not price),  set a new high.  that is the interest on a 10 yr note is higher in early 2018 than what it was in late 16, early 2017.   (look at a 4 yr chart for TNX and TYX).

but rates on the 30 yr bond  have not set a new high.  the 30 yr bond rate is not higher in early 2018 than in late 2016.  so i would call this a "non-confirmation"  .   

rates for the 30 yr need to go up sharply very soon,  or i believe this non-confirmation will turn into a trend change.  and this means the bond bull will return.   (long interest rates will go back down). 

if this happens then the fed will not be able to continue raising short  rates.