KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 28, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Week En U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 6085.7K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 6910.3K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 3818.9K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 221K; previous 216K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -23K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1725000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -55K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Initial GDP * This 'initial' report takes the place of two
previously scheduled estimates of Q4 GDP - the advance estimate
originally set for 30 Jan and the second estimate that would normally
be released 28 Feb - following the partial shutdown of the U.S
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.2%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous 0.9%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q%
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q%
Real Final Sales, Q/Q%
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q%
Consumer Spending, Q/Q%
9:45 AM ET. February ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 56.8; previous 56.7)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies * Release delayed from 29 Jan due to
the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 Jan.
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1705B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -177B)
11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 2)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 33)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 18)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 18)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.8%)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 7280.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 7004.55 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7004.55. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6698.34.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2746.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 2813.20. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2746.37. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2633.07.
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.43 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,531.47 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 26,282.97. Second resistance is the October 2018 high crossing at 26,951.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 25,531.47. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 24,883.04.
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March T-bonds closed down 1-06/32's at 145-20.
March T-bonds closed sharply lower on Wednesday as they extend this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144-29 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 147-05 would open the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 148-27. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-05. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.
March T-notes closed down 115 points at 121.310.
March T-notes closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.190 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 122.190 would renew the rally off January's low while opening the door for a possible test of January's high crossing at 123.055. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.
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April crude oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.51. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 63.44. First support is the reaction low crossing at 51.62. Second support is December's low crossing at 43.00.
April heating oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.85 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 194.85. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 185.20.
April unleaded gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 167.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the reaction low crossing at 155.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 142.54.
April Henry natural gas closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.872 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.697 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 2.849. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the November-February decline crossing at 2.872. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.589. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.58 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 96.65 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 97.23. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 38% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.58.Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February-rally crossing at 95.06.
The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term.Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.41 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.41. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. First support is February's low crossing at 112.61. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3529 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3034 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.3364. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 1.3529. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3034. Second support is February's low crossing at 1.2791.
The March Swiss Franc closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0018 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0112. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0142. First support is February's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 76.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Wednesday but remains above support marked by the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0909 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 0.0892.
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April gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1322.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1301.30. Second support is January's low crossing at 1281.50.
May silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.644 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 16.295. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.355. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.644. Second support is January's low crossing at 15.280.
May copper closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If March extends the rally, the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the 50% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 296.76. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-December-2018 decline crossing at 306.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 284.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 274.40.
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May Corn closed down 2 1/4-cents at 3.73 3/4.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday after some comments from the U.S. Trade Representative suggest the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute could drag on for some time. Corn prices were lower for the third consecutive session of technical selling.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.71 3/4 is the next downside targets. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 3.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.92 1/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.71 3/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November-rally crossing at 3.67 3/4.
May wheat closed down 1 1/4-cents at 4.67.
May wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.90 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.56 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.43 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 1/4-cents at 4.45 1/2.
May Kansas City wheat closed higher on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.87 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.66 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.87 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.40 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.17 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down 1-cent at 5.54.
May Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 5.77 1/4 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May renews this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.93 3/4. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 5.48. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.
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May soybeans closed down a 1/2-cent at 9.16 1/2.
May soybeans closed fractionally lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 9.34 1/2 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.53. First support is January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.
May soybean meal closed up $2.00 at 309.30.
May soybean meal closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.40 would temper the bearish outlook. If May extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 314.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 306.10. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.70.
May soybean oil closed down 27 pts. at 30.13.
May soybean oil closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 29.94 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If May resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 32.02. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 29.94. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.56.
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April hogs closed down $0.13 at $55.60.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 51.27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 58.48. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 61.33. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 52.25. Second support is weekly support crossing at 51.27.
April cattle closed unchanged at 129.93.
April cattle closed unchanged on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stagefor a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.74 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 130.10. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.74. Second support is February's low crossing at 125.75.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.45 at $147.23.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the reaction high crossing at 146.88 has renewed the rally off January's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144.37 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 150.20. First support is January's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 141.30.
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May coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.33 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the December high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 22.03 is the next downside target.
May sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.75 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends this month's rally, October's high crossing at 14.29 is the next upside target.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.29 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.