INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - March 28, 2018, 7:39 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, March 28, 2018  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 383.0)

 



 

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.1%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 249.9)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 1107.7)

 



 

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.5%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Corporate Profits

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 3rd estimate GDP

 



 

 

                       Annual Rate, Q/Q% (expected +2.7%; previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (expected +2.3%; previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

                       Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +4.9%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.7%)

 



 

 

                       Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +2.5%)

 



 

 

                       Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +3.3%)

 



 

 

                       Core PCE Price Idx, Ex Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +1.9%)

 

                        

 

                       Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +3.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. February Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 104.6)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -4.7%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -3.8%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 428.306M)

 



 

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.622M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 243.065M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.693M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 131.044M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.022M)

 



 

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.7%)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.675M)

 



 

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.256M)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. March Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -6.2%)

 



 

 

Thursday, March 29, 2018  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 1620.9K)

 



 

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 113K)

 



 

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 382.5K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 230K; previous 229K)

 



 

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1828000)

 



 

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -57K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +1.5%)

 



 

 

9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. March ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 61.0; previous 61.9)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. March University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – final

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Sentiment Idx (expected 102.0; previous 99.7)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 90.0)

 



 

 

                       12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)

 



 

 

                       5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.5%)

 



 

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 114.9)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1446B)

 



 

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -86B)

 

  

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, March 30, 2018   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. International Investment Position

 



 

 

  N/A               Marianas: Good Friday

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. stock markets closed on Good Friday

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 6192.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6888.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6888.80. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 6485.25. Second support is February's low crossing at 6192.50.  



The June S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off March's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2736.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2680.58. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2736.86. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 2588.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 2533.51.   



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low and is testing resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 142-30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 147-14. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 142-30. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.    



June T-notes were slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 122.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.112 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 121.090. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 120.112. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 119.220.  



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: MayNymex crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off February's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 66.55. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 70.46. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 63.99. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.68.  



May heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 207.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.19 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 207.28. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 208.95. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 197.68. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 193.19. 



May unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 208.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 195.74 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 205.45. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 208.89. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 199.42. Second support is 20-day moving average crossing at 195.74. 



May Henry natural gas was lower overnight following a two-day rebound off Monday's low.Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.745 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May renews the decline off March's high, December's low crossing at 2.504 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.730. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.745. First support is February's low crossing at 2.600. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.504.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was higher in overnight trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 89.41 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 87.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 88.53. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.



The June Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. If June resumes the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 122.54 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 125.53. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97. 



The June British Pound was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4352 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4032 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4352. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4032. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3777.  



The June Swiss Franc were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0711 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0643. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0711. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.



The June Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.02 is the next upside target. If June renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06 is the next downside target.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.26. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 79.02. First support is March's low crossing at 76.33. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06.



The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 0.9433 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-decline crossing at 0.9740 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 0.9433. Second support is March's crossing at 0.9382.  



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: June gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1333.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the aforementioned rally, February's high crossing at 1369.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1369.60. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1375.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1311.50. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1296.30.



May silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.717 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.717. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 16.895. First support is March's low crossing at 16.100. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705. 



May copper was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.49 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 303.94. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 308.49. First support is Monday's low crossing at 293.75. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 281.96 is the next downside target.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



May corn was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.76 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.82 3/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.69 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.64.  



May wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's gap crossing at 4.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's gap crossing at 4.67. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.77 3/4. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.47 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.    



May Kansas City Wheat closed down 4 1/4-cents at 4.64. 



May Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above last Monday's gap crossing at 4.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's gap crossing at 4.99 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.07. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.58 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.  



May Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off January's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.15 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 6.05. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.15. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 5.82 3/4. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 5.59 1/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



May soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.04 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.43 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.43. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.04. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 9.87 1/4.



May soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 385.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 385.80. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.



May soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off November's high, the January-2016 low crossing at 30.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.29 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 31.81. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.29. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 31.35. Second support is the January-2016-low crossing at 30.67.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



June hogs closed down $0.08 at $74.02. 



June hogs closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 71.99 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.78 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.52. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.78. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 73.22. Second support is weekly support crossing at 71.99.



June cattle closed down $0.05 at 105.25. 



June cattle closed lower on Tuesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 102.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 108.89. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.67. First support is Monday's low crossing at 104.70. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2017's rally crossing at 102.65.

 

May Feeder cattle closed up $0.80 at $136.35. 



May Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, last August's low crossing at 134.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.45 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 138.81. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 142.45. First support is Monday's low crossing at 135.40. Second support is last August's low crossing at 134.10.   



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



May coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target.     



May cocoa closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 27.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



May sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.91 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. 



May cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 81.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target. 

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