Rains from this current system are not going to help with the driest spots.  Rains day s 4-5 might help Kansas a bit more.

In the week 2 period, the pattern is more favorable, farther west. See maps below.

Thanks to the rain event just over a week ago, ratings improved for HRW in KS and OK. 

For Kansas: vp was 15 -2, poor was 34 -4, fair was 38 +4, good was 12 +2 and ex was 1 unch So -6% in p/vp.

Oklahoma: vp 28 +1, poor was 26 -13, fair, 37 +8, good was 9 +4, ex was 0 unch So -12% in p/vp.

Texas ratings  were mixed vp 34 -2, poor was 29 +5, fair, 25 -5, good was 10 +1 ex was 2 +1

So +3% p/vp but +2% gd/ex

So the S.Plains crop in those 3 states got less shiitty but is still one of the worst rated ever. Am thinking that much of the vp condition crop will get torn up and planted to cotton or something else and this is a huge amount. Good rains in the next 2 weeks can help the poor stuff to keep this from happening but it won't get much better than fair.

Amazing that so little of the crop is excellent.............1% or less in all 3 states.......so there is NOT any high yielding HRW in those states to offset the horrible stuff. Rains can shift the good to excellent and fair to good and prevent a disaster but this years crop, at best will be many bushels below trend.

With potential rains coming up, I'm hesitant to buy the HRW. We saw what added rains (in the forecast) did to the price today.  The latest GFS has 2+ inches of rain for ALL of KS/OK/TX, including the driest spots, mostly in the week 2 period. It has over 10 inches of rain in the far eastern parts of those states into MO/AR, W.TN and N.MS.

Funny how a month ago, the widespread, expanding drought(and La Nina) had rallied wheat $1 and inspired funds to go on a massive buying campaign in corn, covering shorts and going long in Jan/Feb and now the main threat looks to be excessive rains in the south over the next 2 weeks.

And of course increasing soil moisture is washing away drought fears and has resulted in major selling by funds that have been covering a big long position the last 2 weeks. 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Crops_County/ww-ha.php

Days 4-5:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1522104006

Week 2, wet, including KS.  Cold for Midwest but its still early April. Wet and cold will need to last well thru April forecasts to really be bulllish(corn);

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php