KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 364.8)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 237.7)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -6.1%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1052.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -0.1%)
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +1.6%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published
3:00 PM ET. January Agricultural Prices * Release delayed from 31 Jan due to the
partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +3.5%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.5M)
Thursday, February 21, 2019
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 230K; previous 239K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1773000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +37K)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous +0.8%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.6%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 13.0; previous 17.0)
Prices Paid (previous 32.7)
Employment (previous 9.6)
New Orders (previous 21.3)
Prices Received (previous 24.8)
Delivery Times (previous 13.4)
Inventories (previous -7.6)
Shipments (previous 11.4)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.2)
9:45 AM ET. February US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 54.2; previous 54.9)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.1%)
Leading Index (previous -111.7)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
10:00 AM ET. January Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.10M; previous 4.99M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +2.2%; previous -6.4%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.7)
Median Price (USD) (previous 253600)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1882B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -78B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 450.84M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +3.633M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 258.301M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.408M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 140.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.187M)
Refinery Usage (previous 85.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.114M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -2.724M)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 22, 2019
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
Monday, February 25, 2019
8:30 AM ET. January CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.27)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.16)
10:00 AM ET. December Monthly Wholesale Trade * Release delayed from 8 Feb due to
the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government which ended 25 January
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
10:30 AM ET. February Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 1.0)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 14.5)
N/A Trump departs en route for Vietnam for second meeting with
Kim Jong Un
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of its gains off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6926.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6926.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6669.64.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2716.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2823.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2716.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2621.42.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extends the rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 144-29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.
March T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 121.190 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
April crude oil was slightly lower in quiet trading overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 58.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.76 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 56.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.76. Second support is December's low crossing at 43.00.
April heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 191.78 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 202.41. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 212.17. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 191.78. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 183.72.
April unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.99 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 177.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 188.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 163.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 155.13.
April Henry natural gas was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.708 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off January's high, the May 2018 low crossing at 2.523 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.708. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.773. First support is February's low crossing at 2.565. Second support is the May 2018 low crossing at 2.523.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, weekly resistance crossing at 97.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 97.12. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.83. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 96.11. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.87.
The March Euro was lower overnight. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.99 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.46. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 112.76. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidated some of Wednesday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 1.3252 is the next upside target. Closes below February's low crossing at 1.2791 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.3094. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. First support is February's low crossing at 1.2791. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.
The March Swiss Franc was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0035 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0035. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0124. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.9930. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The March Canadian Dollar was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.11 would renew the decline off January's high. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0912 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0892.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was higher overnight and tested the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1376.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1304.70 would confirm a top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1376.20. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1304.70. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1295.70.
March silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.466 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.466. Second support is January's low crossing at 15.195.
March copper was slightly higher overnight. The high-range trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the July 25th 2018 high crossing at 290.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. Second resistance is the July 25th 2018 high crossing at 290.95. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 278.56. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 3.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.87 1/4 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.92 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.95. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.77. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.75.
May wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.85 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.27 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 5.32 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.44 1/4. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.90. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.85 1/2.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 16 1/4-cents at 4.68 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extended this month's decline. If May extends this week's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.56 3/4 is the next downside target. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.56 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.12 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 5.26 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.35 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.69 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.56 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 5.50 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.77 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.77 1/4. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 5.83 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 5.50 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.44 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 9.04 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.34 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.45. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.53. First support is January's low crossing at 9.04 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.93 1/2.
May soybean meal was lower overnight. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 314.70 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 314.70. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 321.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 306.60. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.70.
May soybean oil was slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 30.57 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 31.32. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 32.02. First support is the reaction low crossing at 29.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.43.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $3.00 at $56.53.
April hogs closed limit down on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, weekly support crossing at 54.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.08. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 63.33. First support is today's low crossing at 56.52. Second support is weekly support crossing at 54.00.
April cattle closed up $1.28 at 128.45.
April cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.12 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126.12. Second support is January's low crossing at 123.50.
April Feeder cattle closed up $0.78 at $146.00.
April Feeder cattle closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 146.88 would temper the bearish outlook. If April extends last-Friday's decline, February's low crossing at 142.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.88. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.83. First support is February's low crossing at 142.63. Second support is January's low crossing at 141.30.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 95.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.57 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, the December high crossing at 24.64 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's rally, January's high crossing at 13.37 is the next upside target. If May renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.82 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.90 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 68.36 is the next downside target.
Thanks tallpine!