KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 378.9)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -2.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 253.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -4.9%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1053.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. January Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. January CPI
CPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.1%)
Core CPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.2%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -3.5%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
CPI, Y/Y% (expected +1.5%; previous +1.9%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (expected +2.1%; previous +2.2%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 447.207M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.263M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 257.893M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.513M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 139.013M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.257M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.7%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.838M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +1.023M)
Thursday, February 14, 2019
8:30 AM ET. January PPI
PPI, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous -0.2%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous -0.1%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.2%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services * Release
delayed from 16 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S.
federal government which ended 25 January
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.5%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 222K; previous 234K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1736000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -42K)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. November Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales * Release delayed
from 16 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S. federal
government which ended 25 Jan
Total Inventories (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1960B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -237B)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, February 15, 2019
8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (expected +0.1%; previous -1.0%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.3%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -11.6%)
8:30 AM ET. February Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (expected 6.0; previous 3.9)
Employment Idx (previous 7.4)
New Orders Idx (previous 3.5)
Prices Received (previous 13.1)
9:15 AM ET. January Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.3%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.8%; previous 78.7%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.1)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers – preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 92.5; previous 90.7)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 78.3)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 110.0)
4:00 PM ET. December Treasury International Capital Data
N/A Deadline for new funding deal to avert another partial U.S.
Govt shutdown
N/A U.S: Susan B. Anthony Day state holiday in Florida
Monday, February 18, 2019
N/A U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as optimism over a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China continues to grow. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6839.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6839.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6649.61.
The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as extends the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2683.59 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 2755.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2683.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2615.16.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was mostly steady in quiet trading overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 144-31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 147-01. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.
March T-notes was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 121.140 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.190. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
March crude oil was higher overnight after Saudi oil minister announced that his country will make further cuts in crude oil production. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the January-February trading range. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 51.16. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.
March heating oil was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the January-February trading range. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas was higher overnight while extending the January-February trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 134.13 are needed to confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 148.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is the reaction low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24.
March Henry natural gas was lower overnight and appears poised to resume the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.432 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.844 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.844. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.174. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 2.549. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.432.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of rally off January's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.90 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 97.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 97.00. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.90. Second support is the late-January low crossing at 94.87.
The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.56. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 112.89. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 1.2707 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3033 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2862. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.
The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 0.9902 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0067 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0067. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0140. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9940. Second support is weekly support crossing at 0.9902.
The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.09 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the reaction low crossing at 74.86. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the reaction low crossing at 0.0904 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0915 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0904. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 0.0900.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1308.80 would confirm a top has been posted. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1308.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1287.50.
March silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.344 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the overnight low crossing at 15.620. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.344.
March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.64 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 274.64. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. The corn market appears likely to remain range bound near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 3.71 then November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 are the next downside targets. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off Monday's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.31 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.10 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 1 3/4-cents at 4.92.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday as it extended Monday's breakout below support marked by the bottom of this year's symmetrical triangle crossing near 4.93 1/2. The door is open for a possible test of November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 later this winter. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.04 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.78 1/4 would confirm that a low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.61 would confirm a downside breakout of the January-February trading range. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March soybeans was lower overnight as the market awaits further news of a possible deal in US/China trade negotiations. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 9.22 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is February's high crossing at 9.31 1/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.
March soybean meal was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 310.60 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is Monday's low crossing at 304.30. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 31.69 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 31.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018 decline crossing at 31.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.92. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 29.08.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed up $1.25 at $60.33.
April hogs gapped up and closed higher on Tuesday following Monday's upside reversal signaling that a short-term low has likely been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off November's high, July's low crossing at 57.80 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 62.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.27. First support is Monday's low crossing at 57.87. Second support is July's low crossing at 57.80.
April cattle closed down $0.43 at 127.88.
April cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.72 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.72. Second support is January's low crossing at 123.50.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.28 at $144.40.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 98.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.72 are needed to would renew the rally off December's low.
March cocoa closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off the June 2018 high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 66.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!