INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 7, 2019, 4:14 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, February 8, 2019  



12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)



                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)



                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""



The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6766.89 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 7169.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 7169.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6766.89. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6643.51.  



The March S&P 500 closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2656.49 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2865.28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2656.49. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2615.78.  



The Dow closed lower on Thursday after White House Adviser Larry Kudlow said a "sizable distance" remains between the U.S. and China in protracted trade negotiations.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,663.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,643.68 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 25,439.04. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,661.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,643.68. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,229.61.



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



March T-bonds closed up 26/32's at 146-15.



March T-bonds closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 146-30. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.         



March T-notes closed up 110 points at 122.080.



March T-notes closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 123.055 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120-301 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 122.165. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.        



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil closed lower on Thursday due to risks to energy demand, the potential for a boost in Libyan production and overall strength in the U.S. dollar pushed prices sharply lower for the session. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53. First support is the reaction low crossing at 50.66. Second support is December's low crossing at 45.13. 



March heating oil closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 



March unleaded gas closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 148.50 would mark an upside breakout of the neckline of a inverted head-and-shoulders bottom while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 later this winter. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 134.13 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 



March Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.432 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.933 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.933. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. First support is today's low crossing at 2.549. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.432.     



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The March Dollar closed higher for the sixth-day in a row on Thursday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Profit taking tempered early-session gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, December's high crossing at 97.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving averagecrossing at 95.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 96.38. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.    



The March Euro closed  lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 113.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 114.69 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 115.57. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. First support is January's low crossing at 113.38. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.      



The March British Pound closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2855 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 1.3252. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2855. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.   



The March Swiss Franc closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0152 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0152. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.0265. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0005. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.0000.



The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Thursday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.63 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 74.85 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 75.91 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.  



The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0909 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is Monday's low crossing at 0.0911. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0909.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



April gold closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1305.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April renews the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1305.00. Second support is January's low crossing at 1281.50.



March silver closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.233 is the next downside target. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.233. Second support is January's low crossing at 15.195.          



March copper closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally, September's high crossing at 288.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 271.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 288.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30. 



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March Corn closed down 3 1/2-cents at 3.76 1/2. 



March corn closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as traders square positions ahead of Friday's supply-demand report. Pre-report estimates are as followed. Final 2018 corn acreage is 81.680 million acres. Average corn yield is 177.9 bushels per acre. Corn production for 2018 is estimated at 14.532 billion bushels. Corn carryout for 2018/2019 is estimated at 1.708 billion bushels. World corn carryout is estimated at 307.06 mmt. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at 3.71 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Closes above January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat closed down 13 1/4-cents at 5.12 3/4. 



March wheat closed lower on Thursday. Wheat carryout for 2018/2019 is estimated at 989 million bushels. World carryout is estimated at 268.09 mmt. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4.     



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 13-cents at 4.96 1/4.

 

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Thursday testing support marked by the bottom of this year's symmetrical triangle crossing near 4.95. A breakout in either direction of this consolidation pattern should point the direction of the next possible trending move. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat closed down 8 3/4-cents at 5.64 1/2. 



March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range of the past five-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2.    



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans closed down 83/4-cents at 9.13.



March soybeans closed lower on Thursday. Pre-report estimates for Friday's USDA report are as follows. 2018 soybean acreage is estimated at 88.187 million acres. Soybean yield per acre is 51.8 bushels per acre. 2018 soybean production is estimated at 4.569 billion bushels. 2018 soybean carryout is estimated at 926 million bushels. World soybean carryout is estimated at 112.67 mmt. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.12 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-2018 decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4.  



March soybean meal closed down $3.50 at 305.50. 



March soybean meal closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 303.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 311.70 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is today's low crossing at 305.10. Second support is September's low crossing at 303.40.  



March soybean oil closed down 12 pts. at 30.78. 



March soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 31.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 31.01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 31.69. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 28.89.    

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $1.30 at $59.60. 



April hogs closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 58.22 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.20. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81. Second support is July's low crossing at 57.80.   



April cattle closed down $0.33 at 126.82. 



April cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.38 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 125.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.38.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.08 at $143.25. 



March Feeder cattle closed slightly higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady  opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Thursday while extending the trading range for the past two-months. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.72 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.15 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. 



March cocoa closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.60 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target.      



March sugar closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. 



March cotton closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.16 is the next upside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Feb. 8, 2019, 1:08 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!