Should read at Agweb.com about" Is China really buying 10mmt. of beans". Very interesting. Maybe the reason Beans break with sales to China..thus FAKE NEWS and the big boys sell.
have you read about the consequences this tariff deal has had with china? they have little choice right now.
bcb can you share a link?
It'll be hard to verify grain sales since the reports were botched and backed up due to the expensive and non productive shutdown. Read the message in the yellow box on this link:
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html
The Chinese are masters of market manipulation and the shutdown only aided them.
The 5mmt that is rumored to have been bought the other day, has also been said to have a delivery period into September that should tell you something.
WASHINGTON, Feb. 5, 2019–Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
--Export sales of 2,603,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2018/2019 marketing year; and
--Export sales of 274,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sep
Previous posts/discussion on beans:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/22968/
Latest weather is slightly bullish?
On the dry side in S.Brazil the next 2 weeks but with one pretty good chance of rain in around a week. Temps will be cool for this time of year.
Rain totals the next 2 weeks below from the 12z GFS operational model:
The SA crop in total is going to be pretty close to what it was last year. Losses from dry and heat will be made up by a more normal crop from Argentina after their drought year last year. Unless bean acreage comes in around 80 mil, beans are going to either have to get cheaper to give up acres or corn is going to have to get more expensive to buy acres.
When you add in the piggie carnage going on in China (and Japan just killed off a bunch of hogs for a different type flu) and the need for less beans, there is just nothing good on the horizon for bean prices.
There was major damage from excessive rains for weeks in Argentina. Their crop will end up much lower than current estimates.
Damage from excessive dryness in Brazil will cause their crop to be much lower than current estimates.
Fundamentals based on record world supplies don't support bean prices this high............but the market is looking ahead at these reduced supplies.
I could go on and on about what I think. But I can't argue with the fact that grain prices don't want to seem to go lower. Maybe $9 is the new $5.
Thanks Jim!
It's great to hear from you again!
https://www.agweb.com/article/wasde-corn-stocks-fall/
Crop Production
https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/crop0219.pdf
Exports inspections earlier today: