KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +2.5%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.1%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
9:45 AM ET. January US Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 54.4)
10:00 AM ET. February IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
Economic Optimism Idx (previous 52.3)
6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 46.8)
10:00 AM ET. January ISM Non-Manufacturing Report on Business
Non-Mfg Composite Idx (expected 56.7; previous 57.6)
Non-Mfg Business Idx (previous 59.9)
Prices Idx (previous 57.6)
Employment Idx (previous 56.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 62.7)
11:00 AM ET. January Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 53.1)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.0M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.2M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.2M)
N/A Trump delivers second State of the Union address
N/A NASEO Energy Policy Outlook Conference
Wednesday, February 6, 2019
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 388.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -3.0%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 266.2)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1049.9)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -5.5%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +1.7%; previous +2.2%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +1.7%; previous +1.2%)
830 AM ET. November U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services * Release
delayed from 8 Jan due to the partial shutdown of the U.S.
federal government which ended 25 Jan
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -54.6B; previous -55.49B)
Exports (USD) (previous 211.05B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
Imports (USD) (previous 266.53B)
Imports, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. January Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 445.944M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.919M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 257.38M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.235M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 141.27M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.122M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.1%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.815M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.645M)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6706.46 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7280.27. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7513.84. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6706.46. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6622.82.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2633.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2789.62. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2633.70. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.
The Dow closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off December's low.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,663.83 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,403.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 25,193.15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,661.68. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,403.56. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 24,173.81.
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March T-bonds closed down 23/32's at 145-07.
March T-bonds closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of its recent gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 148-27 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 146-30. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.
March T-notes closed down 075 points at 122-225.
March T-notes closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120-301 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 123.055 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 122.165. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 120.071.
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March crude oil closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of its recent gains. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 50.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53. First support is the reaction low crossing at 50.66. Second support is December's low crossing at 45.13.
March heating oil closed slightly lower on Monday while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 182.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the reaction low crossing at 182.80. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas closed slightly lower on Monday due to a sell off in the afternoon session. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 124.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134.13. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24.
March Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 2.565 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.090 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 3.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. First support is today's low crossing at 2.655. Second support is weekly support crossing at 2.565.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 95.67 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 94.63 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.56. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.
The March Euro closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, January's high crossing at 116.33 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 117.70. First support is January's low crossing at 113.38. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2997 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2997. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2849.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0159 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0159. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0044. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 77.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.60. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.85.
The March Japanese Yen closed sharply lower on Monday as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.0925. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. First support is today's low crossing at 0.0911. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0908.
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April gold closed lower on Monday due to a stronger US Dollar as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1301.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 1331.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1302.40. Second support is January's low crossing at 1281.50.
March silver closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.682 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 16.200. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is January's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 15.154.
March copper closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally, December's high crossing at 285.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 269.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 263.45. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30.
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March Corn closed up 1 1/4-cents at 3.79 1/2.
March corn closed higher on Monday while extending the August-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below January's low crossing at 3.71 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. Closes above January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed up 1-cent at 5.25 1/2.
March wheat closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 1 3/4-cents at 5.10 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 3/4-cents at 5.74 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2.
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March soybeans closed up 1 1/4-cents at 9.19.
March soybeans closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.10 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the April-September-2018 decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4.
March soybean meal closed down $1.20 at 310.60.
March soybean meal closed lower on Monday as it extends the September-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.50 would temper the bearish outlook. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.
March soybean oil closed up 24 pts. at 30.13.
March soybean oil closed higher on Monday leaving last-Friday's key reversal down unconfirmed. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.18 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 30.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 30.62. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 30.71. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.88. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29.18.
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April hogs closed up $2.93 at $63.05.
April hogs posted a key reversal up on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at 58.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.62. First support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81. Second support is August's low crossing at 58.2.
April cattle closed up $0.73 at 127.00.
April cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.12 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 129.48. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the reaction low crossing at 125.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125.12.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.70 at $144.23.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 145.58 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is January's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Monday while extending the trading range for the past two-months. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.72 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. Closes below December's low crossing at 9.86 would confirm a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range.
March cocoa closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.80 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Monday. Additional strength on Tuesday would confirm an upside breakout of a small symmetrical triangle thereby signaling a likely resumption of the rally off January's low. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target.
March cotton closed lower on Monday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at 73.34 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.46 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!