KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous +0.6%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +2.8%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +2.9%)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.3M)
Refinery Runs
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 387.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 246.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +3.4%)
Refinance Idx (previous 1159.3)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.2%)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter International Transactions
Current Account (USD) (expected -125.0B; previous -100.57B)
10:00 AM ET. February Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (expected 5.40M; previous 5.38M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -3.2%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.4)
Median Price (USD) (previous 240500)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +5.8%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 430.928M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.022M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 244.758M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.271M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 133.066M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -4.36M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.0%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.931M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.461M)
2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2017 (previous 1.400%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2018 (previous 2.100%)
Median Fed Funds Rate - 2019 (previous 2.700%)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision, followed by Jerome Powell press briefing
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 1.50)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.25)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 9)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.00)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, March 22, 2018
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 2605.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1347K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 219.5K)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 225K; previous 226K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -4K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1879000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
9:00 AM ET. January U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:30 AM ET. IMF regular press briefing
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 55.9)
9:45 AM ET. March US Flash Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 55.9)
9:45 AM ET. Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 AM ET. February Leading Indicators
Leading Index (expected +0.6%; previous +1.0%)
Coincident Index (previous +0.1%)
Lagging Index (previous +0.1%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1532B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -93B)
11:00 AM ET. March Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 21)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 56)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 17)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 38)
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, March 23, 2018
8:30 AM ET. February Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -3.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -2.7%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
10:00 AM ET. February Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. February New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (expected 620K; previous 593K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (expected +4.6%; previous -7.8%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 6.1)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The June NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the decline from March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6851.16 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7030.48 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7030.48. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 7214.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6851.16. Second support is March's low crossing at 6676.00.
The June S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 2663.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2752.04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 2806.00. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2879.10. First support is March's low crossing at 2663.00. Second support is February's low crossing at 2596.10.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: June T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of the rally off February's low. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 142-24 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off February's low, the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 145-07. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 146-01. First support is the reaction low crossing at 142-24. Second support is February's low crossing at 141-14.
June T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 120.165 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If June resumes the rally off February's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.273 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 120.230. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 120.273. First support is the reaction low crossing at 120.165. Second support is February's low crossing at 119.140.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: AprilNymex crude oil was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-weeks.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April renews the rally off February's low, the late-February high crossing at 64.24 is the next upside target. If April extends the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 57.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the late-February high crossing at 64.24. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 66.39. First support is the reaction low crossing at 59.95. Second support is February's low crossing at 57.90.
April heating oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 191.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April resumes the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 180.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 191.03. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 196.47. First support is March's low crossing at 183.75. Second support is February's low crossing at 180.97.
April unleaded gas was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 194.86 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If April renews the decline off the late-February high, February's low crossing at 165.19 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 194.86. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 197.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 185.66. Second support is February's low crossing at 165.19.
April Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off March's high.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 2.612 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.739 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.833. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2.983. First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.612. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.565.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The June Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-months. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June renews the rally off February's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. If June resumes the decline off March's high, February's low crossing at 87.83 is a potential downside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 90.35. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 91.13. First support is the reaction low crossing at 88.91. Second support is February's low crossing at 87.93.
The June Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off March's high, March's low crossing at 122.54 is the next downside target. If June renews the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 126.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is March's high crossing at 125.47. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 126.58. First support is March's low crossing at 122.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-decline crossing at 121.97.
The June British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.4207 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.3967 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.4207. Second high is January's high crossing at 1.4404. First support is March's low crossing at 1.3779. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-February-decline crossing at 1.3628.
The June Swiss Franc were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0688 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0688. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1.0986. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0559. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February-rally crossing at 1.0458.
The June Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If June extends the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.81. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.41. First support is Monday's low crossing at 76.33. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 76.06.
The June Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June resumes the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9491. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2016 decline crossing at 0.9740. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 0.9382. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9308.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1332.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1342.90. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 1364.40. First support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1306.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January-rally crossing at 1291.60.
May silver was slightly lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past seven-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 15.705 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 16.506 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 17.025. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 17.785. First support is the early-March low crossing at 16.160. Second support is December's low crossing at 15.705.
May copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, February's low crossing at 304.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 318.28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 311.46. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 314.65. First support is the reaction low crossing at 305.55. Second support is February's low crossing at 304.65.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
May corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.69 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.86. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 3.95 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 3.74 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.72 3/4.
May wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off February's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.47 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.83 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.83 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.98. First support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.47 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.36.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down 29 1/4-cents at 4.70 1/4.
May Kansas City wheat gapped down and closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off March's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above today's gap crossing at 4.99 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 4.99 1/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.18. First support is today's low crossing at 4.69 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-March-rally crossing at 4.54 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.19 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 6.36. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 6.39 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.95. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the April-July-rally crossing at 5.89 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans were higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If May extends the decline off March's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.49 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at 10.82 1/2. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 10.91 1/2. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10.21 3/4. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 10.19.
May soybean meal was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If May extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 379.40. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 404.00. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 359.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March-rally crossing at 348.30.
May soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.51 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If May resumes the decline off November's high, the July-2016 low crossing at 31.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 32.51. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 32.96. First support is March's low crossing at 31.43. Second support is the July-2016-low crossing at 31.37.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
April hogs closed down $0.27 at $65.45.
April hogs closed lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off January's high, last August's low crossing at 65.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.28. Second resistance is the late-February high crossing at 71.95. First support is today's low crossing at 65.37. Second support is last-August low crossing at 65.03.
April cattle closed down $1.03 at 120.22.
April cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 118.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123.24 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 124.30. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 127.95. First support is today's low crossing at 120.12. Second support is January's low crossing at 118.05.
April Feeder cattle closed down $2.00 at $138.20.
April Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, last August's low crossing at 134.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.28. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 148.40. First support is today's low crossing at 138.00. Second support is last August's low crossing at 134.52.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, weekly support crossing at 11.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 12.32 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
May cocoa closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.62 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-decline crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target.
May sugar posted a key reversal up on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.13 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If May extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 12.00 is the next downside target.
May cotton closed sharply lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 80.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, weekly resistance crossing at 87.18 is the next upside target.