INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Jan. 28, 2019, 7:43 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, January 28, 2019   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 



 

 

                       NAI (previous 0.22)

 



 

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.12)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. January Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (previous -5.1)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 7.3)

 



 

 

  N/A               Network Modernization Summit

 



 

 

  N/A               Operational Energy Summit

 



 

 

Tuesday, January 29, 2019  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.3%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State * This data will not be released if the partial

 

                    U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.5%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.0%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 128.1)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 171.6)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.6M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.6M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.6M)

 



 

 

  N/A               POSTPONED: Trump delivers second State of the Union address

 



 

 

  N/A               Advanced Reactors Technical Summit

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

 



 

 

  N/A               Annual Food Labeling: Evolving Regulatory Compliance Conference

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as investors turned cautious at the start of a full week for earnings and a busy few days on the economic side, with a Federal Reserve meeting also on the calendar. Trade talks between the U.S. and China will take place later this week, while the U.S. government will reopen Monday after a record shutdown.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6570.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6793.68. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6570.43. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.  



The March S&P 500 was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2584.67 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2683.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2584.67. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 146.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.11. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 144-00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 142.16.



March T-notes was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 122.090 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.301 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 122.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.080. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120.071.



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



March crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 58.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.88. Second support is December's low crossing at 42.67.  



March heating oil was lower overnight while extending the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 182.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 182.66. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35. 



March unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.34 would open the door for additional weakness into early-February. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 153.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 153.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.34. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24. 



March Henry natural gas gapped down and was sharply lower overnight as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the overnight decline, January's low crossing at 2.771 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.089 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.406. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.493. First support is the overnight low crossing at 2.840. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.    



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of last-Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-Friday's decline, the 50% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 95.04 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 96.65 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.65. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.19. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 95.04. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54.    



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.79 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 113.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 117.00. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 113.37. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 111.94.    



The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session beings trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2901 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2901. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.2707.  



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes this month's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0184 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0184. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.0354. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.0061. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018. 



The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 75.06. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0922 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0946. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0913. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905.   



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: April gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50 would confirm a top while opening the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1267.10. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1309.80. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the January-August-decline crossing at 1320.10. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1267.10.  



March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support last-Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.999.  



March copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 280.35 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, January's low crossing at 254.30 then the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 are the next downside targets. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 285.80. First support is the reaction low crossing at 261.65. Second support is January's low crossing at 254.30. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally higher overnight as it continues to extend the September-January trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 3.83 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off January's high, November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is January's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.  



March wheat was higher overnight while extending the September-January trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-November-decline crossing at 5.50 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.08. Second support is Jan.'s low crossing at 5.01 1/4. 



March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 5.09 1/2. 



March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. Private estimates peg spring wheat seeding at 13.8 million acres, down 170,000 acres but 580,000 above last year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.  



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.67 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is the reaction low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



March soybeans was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off last week's low, January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is the reaction low crossing at 8.91 1/4. Second support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/2.



March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the September-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 316.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 316.50. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 323.60. First support is January's low crossing at 309.10. Second support is December's low crossing at 307.10.  



March soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, October's high crossing at 30.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November-decline crossing at 30.12. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29.08. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.69.



LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



April hogs closed down $1.38 at $62.13. 



April hogs gapped down and closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 67.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 68.27. First support is the 75% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 61.69. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81.   



April cattle closed up $0.38 at 126.85. 



April cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 127.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.41.   

 

March Feeder cattle closed down $0.70 at $143.62. 



March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.52 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.  



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.04 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.              



March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 23.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.     



March sugar closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.61 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a test of January's lower crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. If March renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.



March cotton closed higher on Friday while extending that trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.96 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 28, 2019, 10:01 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!