KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, January 28, 2019
8:30 AM ET. December CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.22)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.12)
10:30 AM ET. January Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -5.1)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 7.3)
N/A Network Modernization Summit
N/A Operational Energy Summit
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -1.3%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:30 AM ET. December Advance Economic Indicators Report
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter GDP by State * This data will not be released if the partial
U.S. Govt shutdown remains in effect
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous -1.5%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.8%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.0%)
9:00 AM ET. November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.7%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.0%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5.5%)
10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:00 AM ET. January Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 128.1)
Expectation Idx (previous 99.1)
Present Situation Idx (previous 171.6)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +6.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.6M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.6M)
N/A POSTPONED: Trump delivers second State of the Union address
N/A Advanced Reactors Technical Summit
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
N/A Annual Food Labeling: Evolving Regulatory Compliance Conference
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The March NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Friday underpinned by President Trump'sannouncement that he would agree to a temporary truce to allow for the government to re-open while a broader deal on securing the border is agreed. President Trump said he would back a three-week end to the government shutdown. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6547.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6897.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7023.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6547.71. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2576.35 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2683.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2576.35. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.
The Dow gapped up and closed higher on Friday and renewed the rally off December's low in response to today's announcement by the President to temporally halt the government shut down. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,965.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,855.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,965.15. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 25,661.68. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 24,351.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,885.74.
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March T-bonds closed down 21/32's at 145-04.
March T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 146-11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 146-11. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.
March T-notes closed down 110 points at 121-130.
March T-notes closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at 122.090 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120-301 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 122.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.071.
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March crude oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.53 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 50.53. Second support is December's low crossing at 45.13.
March heating oil closed slightly higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 181.77. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Friday. Gasoline demand was pegged at 8.8 million barrels per day for the week ending January 18th, up from the previous week of 8.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks rose by 4.05 million barrels to 259.6 million barrels. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.97 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 147.65. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.97. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24.
March Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.516 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 2.771 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.509. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-decline crossing at 3.690. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 2.897. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.
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The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday hinting that the rally off January's low might have come to an end. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, January's low crossing at 94.63 is the next downside target. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 96.56 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 96.56. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 97.20. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.
The March Euro closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.82 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94 is the next downside target.First resistance is January's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 117.70. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 113.38. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 111.94.
The March British Pound closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, October's high crossing at 1.3356 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2877 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.3356. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2877. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2707.
The March Swiss Franc closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0188 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.0188. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.0061. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday and appears to be breaking out to the topside of this month's bull flag. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 76.49. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.96. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0921 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.0933. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 0.0946. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.0913. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.0905.
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April gold closed sharply higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1281.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1265.20.
March silver closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.966 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 15.195. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.966.
March copper closed higher on Friday and has renewed the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 280.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 261.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 285.80. First support is January's low crossing at 254.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
March Corn closed up 3-cents at 3.80.
March corn closed higher on Friday on reports that at the very least a government shutdown agreement has or will soon be reached. The corn market will be focused on next week's trade talks between the U.S. and China for near-term direction. Ethanol production for the week ending January 18th average 1.031 million barrels per day, up 1.9% from the previous week but down 2.92% at the same time last year. Corn grind for ethanol was 106.4 million bushels verses 108.5 million bushels the previous week. Ethanol stocks rose to 23.5 million barrels. The current production level for ethanol suggest that corn use could be down some 40-million bushels from the previous year. Informa estimated 2019 U.S. corn acreage at 91.5 million acres down from their December estimate but 2.4 million acres above last year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.71 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed down a 1/2-cent at 5.21.
March wheat closed fractionally lower on Friday. All wheat acreage is estimated at 47.2 million acres down 220,000 acres and 637,000 acres below last year. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 5.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 5.46 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down 2-cents at 5.09 1/2.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. Private estimates peg spring wheat seeding at 13.8 million acres, down 170,000 acres but 580,000 above last year. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 4.92 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down 1 1/2-cents at 5.74 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.61 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.93. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 5.61. Second support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2.
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March soybeans closed up 7 1/2-cents at 9.23 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 9.41 is the next upside target. Close below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 8.91 1/4 would temper the bullish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 9.41. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $1.30 at 313.60.
March soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 316.50 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.
March soybean oil closed up 48 pts. at 29.99.
March soybean oil closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 30.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.56 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-November decline crossing at 30.12. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 30.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.91. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 28.56.
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April hogs closed down $1.38 at $62.13.
April hogs gapped down and closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 67.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 66.17. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 68.27. First support is the 75% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 61.69. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-rally crossing at 59.81.
April cattle closed up $0.38 at 126.85.
April cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.41 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 127.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 126.26. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124.41.
March Feeder cattle closed down $0.70 at $143.62.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.52 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 146.47. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 147.58. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 141.20. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
March coffee closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 10.04 would temper the near-term bearish outlook.
March cocoa closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at 20.95 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 23.68 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.61 confirms that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a test of January's lower crossing at 11.69 is the next downside target. If March renews this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed higher on Friday while extending that trading range of the past four-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 75.96 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.
Thanks a million tallpine!