Mike have you seen the newer maps for Brazil?
I'll try to have a more comprehensive forecast later but first glance is bearish:
If weather is being traded, then lower on the open. OK, I see that the better rain chances don't come to the dry areas until week 2, so I'll wait to have an impression. Sorry that I've not been following SA weather the last few days but will get on it!
http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php
Thank You for this South American update Mike.... appreciate it with an attitude of gratitude !
YW Silverspiker, here's more:
The rains coming to driest area of Brazil look to be after day 10 and even then not so great, as Argentina continues to be too wet...............so it appears to me that the weather is actually more bullish than bearish beans here and this spike lower was from something else.
Note how dry that its been in Brazil the past 30 days.........wet in Argentina:
10 day rains from the last 12z GFS. More unwanted rains ARG, not much rain in S.Brazil.
Forecast Hour: 240
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/samer/precip_ptot/gfs_samer_240_precip_ptot.gif
Crop calendar for Argentina:
http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles
Crop Calendar for Brazil:(beans were planted a couple of weeks early this year....will be ready early:
http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles
Soybeans flowering and setting pods.
BTW,
South American bean production will be MUCH lower than anybody's current estimate.
There has been waaaaaay too much rain in Argentina and its been MUCH too dry in Brazil.
Cancellation of Washington trip shows difficulties of reaching deal by March
https://www.ft.com/content/466cc9e2-1e4c-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65
The Trump administration rejected an offer by two Chinese vice-ministers to travel to the US this week for preparatory trade talks because of a lack of progress on two key issues, highlighting the difficulty that Washington and Beijing will face in trying to reach an agreement by a deadline of March 1.
Export inspections were pretty good from this morning:
Despite the plunge lower, the weather in South America is bullish.
More rains where its been too wet.........Argentina.
Not much rain where its been too dry.......Brazil.
Crop estimates will continue to drop this month.
Latest 10 day rains from the 18z GFS:
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/samer/precip_ptot/gfs_samer_234_precip_ptot.gif
Here is a look at the EURO ensembles ending the same time frame as the GFS above. Interesting to see how weather impacts commodities around the world. Continuing to follow and learn from you folks!
Thanks Grant!
Always great to have another weather expert here(like Larry, who's been following markets for a very long time) .
Huge disparity and disagreement on how much rain is coming to S. Brazil this weekend.
Looks like the best rains in awhile for many of those areas. Should be pretty bearish.
However, I think there has been tremendous damage already done and every crop estimate will go down from what it is currently.
Much too wet in Argentina for way too long, and much too dry in Brazil for way too long.
I thought that the 12z European model coming out with more rain a bit after noon is what broke the beans to the spike lows.