Brazilian weather
13 responses | 0 likes
Started by pll - Jan. 21, 2019, 4:07 p.m.

Mike have you seen the newer maps for Brazil?

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By metmike - Jan. 21, 2019, 7:59 p.m.
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I'll try to have a more comprehensive forecast later but first glance is bearish:

If weather is being traded, then lower on the open. OK, I see that the better rain chances don't come to the dry areas until week 2, so I'll wait to have an impression. Sorry that I've not been following SA weather the last few days but will get on it!

http://wxmaps.org/outlooks.php


By silverspiker - Jan. 22, 2019, 12:11 p.m.
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Thank You for this South American update Mike.... appreciate it with an attitude of gratitude !

Raj Sonu GIF - Raj Sonu GIFs

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 2:08 p.m.
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YW Silverspiker, here's more:

The rains coming to driest area of Brazil look to be after day 10 and even then  not so great, as Argentina continues to be too wet...............so it appears to me that the weather is actually more bullish than bearish beans here and this spike lower was from something else.

Note how dry that its been in Brazil the past 30 days.........wet in Argentina:


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Precip_Monitoring/Figures/global/n.30day.figb.gif


10 day rains from the last 12z GFS.  More unwanted rains ARG, not much rain in S.Brazil.


Forecast Hour:  240
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/samer/precip_ptot/gfs_samer_240_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_samer_240_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 2:11 p.m.
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Crop calendar for Argentina:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Argentina-Crop-Cycles

January

  • Early corn in northern Argentina approaching maturity.
  • Corn moving from pollination to grain filling in central Argentina.
  • By end of month, some early corn and sunflowers are starting to be harvested.
  • Finish wheat harvest by early January.
  • Finish planting double crop soybeans by early January.
  • Full season soybeans flowering and starting to set pods.
  • Maximum summer temperatures.
  • Summer rains usually abundant, but can have dry spells.

 

February

  • More corn and sunflowers now being harvested.
  • Corn in central Argentina entering grain filling phase.
  • Full season soybeans setting and filling pods.
  • Double crop soybeans flowering.
  • Sunflower harvest in full swing.
  • Temperatures can still be very hot, but starting to cool by end of month.
  • Rainfall usually getting lighter.

Global Crop Production Maps by Region

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/global_cropprod.aspx

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/ssa/AR_Delegation/Argentina_soybeans_department_2014_2017.jpg

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 2:12 p.m.
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Crop Calendar for Brazil:(beans were planted a couple of weeks early this year....will be ready early:

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles

January

 Soybeans flowering and setting pods. 

  • Some very early soybeans in central Brazil may be harvested this month.
  • First harvested soybeans shipped to processors.
  • Continue spraying to control soybean rust.
  • Corn in grain filling phase.
  • Peak of the rainy season, rains 2-3 times a day in central Brazil, overcast, very hot and humid, greenhouse-like conditions.

February

  • Main pod filling month for soybeans.
  • Early soybeans being harvested, corn harvest begins.
  • Harvested soybeans arrive at ports, soybean exports begin by early February.
  • Soybean rust control now focused on later maturing soybeans.
  • Safrinha (second corn crop) planted after early soybeans are harvested.
  • Can still be very rainy in central Brazil, rainfall less frequent in southern Brazil.

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/Brazil-Crop-Cycles

https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Brazil/Municipality/Brazil_Soybean_prod_2015.jpg

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 2:28 p.m.
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BTW,

South American bean production will be MUCH lower than anybody's current estimate.

There has been waaaaaay too much rain in Argentina and its been MUCH too dry in Brazil.

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 7:15 p.m.
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Looks like this is what caused the beans to plunge around 15c pretty quickly just after noon today:

US turns down China offer of preparatory trade talks

 

Cancellation of Washington trip shows difficulties of reaching deal by March


https://www.ft.com/content/466cc9e2-1e4c-11e9-b126-46fc3ad87c65



The Trump administration rejected an offer by two Chinese vice-ministers to travel to the US this week for preparatory trade talks because of a lack of progress on two key issues, highlighting the difficulty that Washington and Beijing will face in trying to reach an agreement by a deadline of March 1.

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 7:17 p.m.
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Export inspections were pretty good from this morning:


https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 7:21 p.m.
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Despite the plunge lower, the weather in South America is bullish.

More rains where its been too wet.........Argentina.

Not much rain where its been too dry.......Brazil.

Crop estimates will continue to drop this month.


Latest 10 day rains from the 18z GFS:


Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/samer/precip_ptot/gfs_samer_234_precip_ptot.gif

   

gfs_samer_234_precip_ptot.gif

By wxgrant - Jan. 22, 2019, 10:21 p.m.
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Here is a look at the EURO ensembles ending the same time frame as the GFS above. Interesting to see how weather impacts commodities around the world. Continuing to follow and learn from you folks! 

By metmike - Jan. 22, 2019, 11:22 p.m.
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Thanks Grant!


Always great to have another weather expert here(like Larry, who's been following markets for a very long time) .

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2019, 1:20 p.m.
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Huge disparity and disagreement on how much rain is coming to S. Brazil  this weekend.


 Looks like the best rains in awhile for many of those areas. Should be pretty bearish.

However, I think there has been tremendous damage already done and every crop estimate will go down from what it is currently.


Much too wet in Argentina for way too long, and much too dry in Brazil for way too long.

By metmike - Jan. 31, 2019, 6:09 p.m.
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I thought that the 12z European model coming out with more rain a bit after noon is what broke the beans to the spike lows.