Weather Saturday
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Started by metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:22 a.m.

It's January 19th.  Share your blessings with somebody today. Seriously, don't just think about it for a moment......do it now.

Snow total the last 3 days:  blob:null/7ef9e382-baed-4bcc-8f6d-22c78d4363cf

National Snowfall Analysis: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall/

 Scroll down and  enjoy the latest comprehensive weather to the max.  The real Winter weather is coming up now!!!  


Here are the latest hazards across the country. Much colder weather arriving on the scene and lasting into early February in many places-Who will get the most snow? Northeast gets buried this weekend!!!!


Purple/Pink/blue on land is cold/Winter weather. Brown is wind,  Green is flooding. Gray is fog.  Reddish is a red flag advisory.  

Go to the link below, then hit the location/county on the map for details.

                          https://www.spc.noaa.gov/  Go to "hazards"                                                                                     

                   


Legend

                                        

                          

Winter Weather

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml


Image result for image of snowflakes


Snowfall the next 3 days:

 

Forecast Hour:  084
Image URL: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/12/nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif

   

nam_namer_084_snodpth_chng.gif

   


Low Temperatures Tomorrow Morning

Comments
By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:27 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and tomorrow.

1st of many cold blasts to come travels east, maintaining intensity. Moderates a bit heading south.

   

               

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:29 a.m.
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Highs for days 3-7:

The cold blasts intensify, especially across the Midwest to Northeast.  


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:31 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compared to average at this time of year?

 Bitter cold heads south out of Canada in the N.Plains/Upper Midwest.........then pours east/southeast, increasing the blues..............and this is normally the coldest time of year, so this cold compares to the very cold averages.



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Bwbg.gif

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:33 a.m.
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Weather maps for days 3-7 below:

Arctic blasts in the North, with  reinforcements that takes them farther southeast......and some moderation.  Another Southern stream storm in the South......how and where will it phase with the northern stream? How much snow and where?


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:34 a.m.
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By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:36 a.m.
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Current Dew Points


Some moisture has returned to the Ohio River.  Extraordinarily dry behind the Arctic blast far north.
  
Current Dew Points

                                    


Latest radar loop


http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

                          

Full resolution version loop (3400x1700 pixels - 2.2mb)
 

      

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Go to: Most Recent Image

Precipitation the past 24 hours


                                    


    

You can go to this link to see precipitation totals from recent time periods:


https://water.weather.gov/precip/


                              Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"      

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     Soil moisture anomaly:


Still  wet on this particular metric in an enormous area.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


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Precipitation compared to average for the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days. 


Usually not updated for previous day until late the next day.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:51 a.m.
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The top map is the Canadian ensemble average, the maps below are the individual members that make up the average

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Each member is like the parent, Canadian model operational model.......with a slight tweek/variation in parameters. Since we know the equations to represent the physics of the atmosphere in the models are not perfect, its useful to vary some of the equations that are uncertain(can make a difference) to see if it effects the outcome and how.

The average of all these variations(ensembles) often yields a better tool for forecasting. It's always more consistent. The individual operational model, like each individual ensemble member can vary greatly from run to run.........and represent an extreme end of the spectrum at times. The ensemble average of all the members, because it averages the extremes.............from opposite ends of the spectrum.........changes much less from run to run.

End of week 2....................0 ensembles from SATURDAY:
Analysis starting from 7 days ago, ending with today:

Last Friday: Still the same very cold pattern with everything above applying. Polar vortex displaced south with cross polar flow and very northern stream dominant, which penetrates deeply across the US/Canadian border. Ridge West/Trough Midwest/East couplet.

Saturday: Not quite as amplified on the ensemble mean/average because a few members undercut the northern stream with Pacific flow.

Sunday: Very similar to yesterday. With pretty strong agreement outside of a few solutions that try to undercut the cold/deflect the northern stream back towards Canada. These are upper level maps. Dense, bitter cold at the surface coming south with Arctic high pressure will be hard to stop.......even when the pattern shifts in the upper levels.

Monday: Same as yesterday.

Tuesday: Similar to yesterday but with the polar vortex retreating north a bit.

Wednesday: most of  the members still have the same solution, described Friday but an increase in those undercutting it with milder Pacific flow............in the upper levels. Again, at the surface, bitter cold air can still penetrate much farther south, however, we should watch to see what the upper level trend is.

Thursday: Solutions that show the polar vortex retreating continue to increase. It's still a cold pattern but not nearly as extremely cold for this product as recent days.

Friday: As mentioned the past 2 days, we have numerous solutions that show a retreat and filling of the polar vortex but still some very cold ones that look similar to majority from earlier this week.  The average is still pretty cold.

Saturday: The ensemble average is continuing to show more undercutting flow (under the retreating polar vortex) and an increase in members that feature west to even southwest(in the southeast) steering winds in the upper levels. However, at the surface, bitter cold air in Canada is very dense and is hard to stop headed south, so it will likely make more progress than the upper level pattern suggests.............and there are still several pretty cold solutions in the upper levels.........just nothing like we saw a week ago for this end of week 2 period.  The trend is getting less cold!

Saturday late morning update: The 12Z run was much colder again. This, because around half the members have decided that the polar vortex is going to take another dip south again. WIth the solidly negative AO, such cold changes are not a big surprise.  When the AO is this negative, models tend to under forecast the amount of cold that get flushed south from high latitudes into the mid latitudes(US). Right now, we are having a battle between the Pacific flow trying to move in and the northern stream, which is being modulated by the position of the polar vortex.

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360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Feb 03, 2019 00 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 11:54 a.m.
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0Z GFS Ensembles at 2 weeks:

Analysis,  starting with a week ago:


Last Friday: Extreme cold pattern. Ridge West/Trough East transports frigid air from high latitudes deeply south of US border..........similar agreement to Canadian ensembles above.

Saturday: Same as yesterday. Almost universal agreement vs the Canadian model ensembles, now having a minority with undercutting southern stream.  The European model ensembles agreed with this too.

Sunday: This particular set of solutions was the coldest yet of any model for any time frame. A couple members had the center of the  polar vortex into the Midwest which would be extraordinarily rare and likely too extreme. The 6z and 12z runs were not as extreme at this particular time frame but all of them advertise sustained frigid weather for much of the country during week 2 and possibly beyond. 

Monday: Similar to yesterday.

Tuesday: This was the coldest solution yet for this model, coming out just before midnight.  WOW! It couldn't get any colder than this.

Wednesday: Clearly not nearly as cold...............as the extreme cold of previous days. Polar vortex retreats but this is still pretty dang cold. Cold does not penetrate deeply into the Southeast. It should be noted that the European model ensembles were still VERY cold at the end of 2 weeks and do not show any let up. 

Thursday: Much colder than the Canadian model.  Some pretty extreme solutions with polar vortex displaced very far south.

Friday: Still MUCH colder than the Canadian model and some very extremely cold solutions but a tad less cold. The rest of the guidance overnight was milder than the solution below,  however. 

Saturday: Marked milder change with almost half the solutions bringing mild Pacific flow across the country.   Several, however still have the polar vortex a thing to be reconned with, displaced unusually far south.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_0z/f360.gif

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 12:03 p.m.
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Latest, updated graph/forecast for AO and NAO here, including an explanation of how to interpret them. 

Previous analysis, with the latest day at the bottom for late week 2 period.


Last Friday: AO now extremely negative, to the bottom of the graph negative on some solutions. Strongly favors bitter cold moving from high to middle latitudes. NAO more negative than the last few days............helps push the cold into the US, especially Midwest/East. PNA a bit positive.........also helps cold pattern.

Saturday: AO still negative but not as extreme. NAO close to zero, leaning negative late. PNA modestly positive.  Still strongly favors cold, just quite as extreme as yesterday.

Sunday: AO slightly more negative with a few in record, absolute bottom of the graph negative(from the 0z run). This greatly favors cold transport from high to mid latitudes. NAO drifts lower to slightly negative(favors cold to penetrate south into the US) and PNA a bit positive......helps air masses in the Midwest/East to have a north to south movement. 

Monday: Very negative AO. NAO a bit more negative today. PNA slightly positive.

Tuesday: Same as yesterday. A couple of AO solutions bounce to zero, the rest are extremely low/cold.

Wedneday: AO not as extremely negative, less favorable for the extreme cold to continue.......but still quite negative on many solutions.  NAO now closer to zero, less favorable for cold to drive deeply south into the US. PNA now closer to zero vs being positive.........less favorable for cold dropping south. 

Thursday: AO spread is incredibly wide, from extremely negative to solidly positive. NAO spread fairly wide but slightly negative. PNA morphing towards zero, slightly less positive. Less likely for cold to continue into February but tremendous uncertainty.

Friday: AO spread is huge still. A few incredibly negative some around zero. NAO has increased from earlier this week to near zero. PNA also decreased to near zero...................so less favorable for cold but still favorable.

Saturday: AO has a bit less spread but is gyrating around in solidly negative territory, which strongly favors cold.....though some extended models want to warm things up. NAO is around zero with enough spread for uncertainty. PNA is dropping steadily and is becoming less favorable for cold and supports milder Pacific air masses coming in to replace Arctic air masses by late week 2. 

The link below, now has the PNA index added at the bottom:


https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/1579

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 12:06 p.m.
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National Weather Service 6-10 day, 8-14 day outlooks.


Updated early this afternoon:

The cold pattern will be well established during this period..............with some big snows adding to it in the northern half of the country. Temps will be even colder over deep snow packs. 

Now we just try to figure out how cold and how long it will last. Latest guidance has been going back and forth on this.



Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

  


the 8-14 day outlooks
ArchivesAnalogsLines-Only FormatGIS Data

Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 12:13 p.m.
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Previous posts  

                By metmike - Jan. 16, 2019, 10:34 a.m.            

 Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  3h3 hours ago              

                                        

20-30 degrees below normal ON AVERAGE from an ENSEMBLE in the 11-15 day period in what is seasonally about the coldest time of year Lots of agreement from GFS members on BITTER cold in the middle of the country as we finish the month

                                                 

 

                                    


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                By metmike - Jan. 15, 2019, 2:43 p.m.            

            

The 12z GFS individual ensembles are still extremely cold at the end of week 2.

Canadian ensembles, not quite this cold but here are the latest GFS ensembles. It would be difficult to make the pattern colder.........but deeper penetration south would probably do it.:http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGT_12z/f384.gif

                                    


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                By tjc - Jan. 15, 2019, 8:34 p.m.            

            


Larry/MetMike

Any evidence of a warmer/shorter 'cold' timeframe?

NG collapses if this is not long duration cold event!


Same on me, but I am NOT interested in 'mere' re-urgitation of computer runs.  Prefer your 'biased' "I have seen this before" "GUT"!!

Ahh, MetMike calling EVERY NG turn for four days, sometimes three times a day, during Katrina!!

My bias is NG has topped for the week.  Perhaps a test of the 2am high, but TOPPED!


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                By wxgrant - Jan. 15, 2019, 9:43 p.m.            

            

                            

Sorry about the first Graphic. I was on air and dragged the wrong one. As you can see the trend is to go from well below average the next two weeks to slightly below average.  

tjc as for a "Gut" feeling on the cold I personally don't see a short term break in the cold, next 14 days. If you trust the ensembles and analogs that compare what happens in this set up there is a 20% or greater that the minimum temperature will be lower than 0°F from a line just south of Kansas City to Paducah to Washington D.C. That's pretty far south. That percentage increases to 40% -80% in the Northeast and upper Midwest. Those percentages are between the 20th and 29th. So that is why I am buying into the prolong cold spell. 


Hope that helps 

                                    


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                By metmike - Jan. 15, 2019, 10:21 p.m.            

            

Yes, that does help a great deal Grant. Thanks for the extra effort to get this forecast for us!

And welcome back!

Here was the 762 hour European model forecast from the most recent run, yesterday for 850mb temps, starting at day 15 and going out at 24 hour time intervals.

So Jan 26-Feb 15.

On this product(that has limited skill) there are something like 4 or 5 waves of cold with varying duration that hit from the Midwest to the Northeast.

The 0 Deg. C isotherm never penetrates extremely far southeast, so the Florida orange crop would not be seriously  threatened with this scenario. For a good freeze scare, we should see the 0 Deg. C line, into Central Florida.

This model does take temps into the U-30's on the morning of Jan 31,  then the low 40's on Feb 2 and Feb 9 in the northern fringes of orange grove country. 

We really need something at least 10 degrees cold than that for a good scare.

Maps below will be updated late Thursday afternoon. The descriptions above are from Mondays maps.


















 

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                By metmike - Jan. 15, 2019, 10:37 p.m.            

            


tjc,

Thank you for the nice recognition/compliment.

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                Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            

            

                          By metmike - Jan. 16, 2019, 10:39 a.m.            

            


      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  2h2 hours ago              

  

                                     

First half of the meteorological winter is in the books.  Probably one of the warmest ever recorded for the Nation. 2nd half promises to be a WHOLE lot different

                                                 

 

                                    


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                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            

                   

                            

Snow after 5 days:


   

gfs_namer_120_snodpth_chng.gif


Snow after 7 days below:   


   

gfs_namer_180_snodpth_chng.gif


Snow after 15 days below:   

gfs_namer_384_snodpth_chng.gif

                                    


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                Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Wednesday            

            

                By metmike - Jan. 16, 2019, 12:27 p.m.            

            


                            

12z GFS operational was light years milder in week 2 than earlier this week but following thru with the previous solutions trend.

Canadian ensembles MUCH milder also, following with its previous trend.

12z GFS ensembles only a tad milder, still VERY cold.

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                By metmike - Jan. 16, 2019, 7:50 p.m.            

            18z operational GFS is just the opposite of the 12z model and MUCH colder. Very volatile changes from run to run.

The GFS ensembles were about the same but with a colder end of week 2, which is the key period right now.

What happens then will either cause the upcoming cold to be short lived and bearish or keep it going/sustain it well into February........potentially bullish.

 Much colder 18 z GFS below.....2 weeks out:






Previous much Milder 12z operational GFS below:

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Latest 18z GFS ensembles below at 360 hours. Center of the Polar vortex over The Hudson Bay with an extension south. Cross polar flow still aimed towards the Northern US.

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                                      Re: Weather Wednesday            

      

                By silverspiker - Jan. 17, 2019, 1:21 a.m.            

            


Image result for gif of snow tornado

                                    


            

                

                                                                                                

                Email: meteormike@msn.com | IP Address: None                | Cookie ID: None            

                                                                                                                  

                Re: Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

            


                By metmike - Jan. 17, 2019, 3:34 p.m.            

            

Extreme weather days 3-7


Winter hits hard!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

                                    


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                Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

            

      

                By metmike - Jan. 17, 2019, 3:36 p.m.            

            


Extreme weather days 8-15. COLD!


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png

                                    


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                Re: Re: Re: Weather Thursday            

     

                By metmike - Jan. 17, 2019, 8:10 p.m.            

            


The 768/monthly European model was updated a couple of hours ago and it was very cold for the first half of February, with 2 especially Frigid blasts hitting during that period.

This probably helped support ng after the evening open.


Scroll back up to see those updated maps.

                                    


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                By silverspiker - Jan. 18, 2019, 7:21 p.m.            

            

                                Like                Reply            

                            

... ya' know Mike....


... do not ever let anybody ever put a "Pixelator" in your carbeurator...  

                                    


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                By metmike - Jan. 18, 2019, 8:31 p.m.            

         

PIXELATOR

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBWFaU893kM

By metmike - Jan. 19, 2019, 12:18 p.m.
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      Craig Solberg@CraigSolberg                  22h22 hours ago              

  

  

                                     

Low temperatures for January 27 from the midday European model. Not saying that this is spot-on correct...but shows the type of potential this pattern has for RECORD cold in the middle of the country for around and after January 25 #wxporn