KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, January 18, 2019
9:15 AM ET. December Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.2%; previous +0.6%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 78.5%; previous 78.5%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.4)
10:00 AM ET. January University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary data
Mid-Mo Sentiment (expected 96.4; previous 97.5)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 86.1)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 115.2)
10:00 AM ET. December Regional & State Employment & Unemployment
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The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6787.66 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6413.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 6787.66. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 7018.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6413.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 6136.50.
The March S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 2683.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2525.07 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2683.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-decline crossing at 2706.38. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2525.07. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2439.00.
The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off December's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,965.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,406.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,342.49. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 24,965.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 23,406.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 22,638.41.
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March T-bonds closed down 2/32's at 145-04.
March T-bonds closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 144-30 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted and would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March resumes the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01 is the next upside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 148-27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2016-2018-decline crossing at 152-01. First support is the 38% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 144-30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-January-rally crossing at 142-16.
March T-notes closed down 65 points at 121-165.
March T-notes closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-January-rally crossing at 120-301 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 122.090 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 122.090. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 123.055. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.301. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-rally crossing at 120.071.
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March crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.72 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 55.55. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 59.53. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 48.72. Second support is December's low crossing at 45.13.
March heating oil closed slightly lower on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 193.75. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 203.52 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 177.45. Second support is December's low crossing at 162.35.
March unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 159.42 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 144.96. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-December-decline crossing at 160.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136.60. Second support is December's low crossing at 124.24.
March Henry natural gas posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.523 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's gap crossing at 3.002 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.523. Second resistance is the December 20th reaction high crossing at 3.659. First support is Monday's gap crossing at 3.002. Second support is January's low crossing at 2.771.
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The March Dollar closed slightly lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.76 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.53 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.76. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 96.09. First support is the 62% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 94.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-December-rally crossing at 93.97.
The March Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, January's low crossing at 113.78.If March resumes the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 116.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 116.33. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 116.45. First support is January's low crossing at 113.78. Second support is December's low crossing at 113.62.
The March British Pound closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off January's low, the reaction high crossing at 1.3150 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 1.2707 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.3150. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1.3257. First support is January's low crossing at 1.2512. Second support is the October-2016 low crossing at 1.2384.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Thursday's high.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 1.0018 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 1.0265 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0330. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-November-decline crossing at 1.0405. First support is today's low crossing at 1.0099. Second support is November's low crossing at 1.0018.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, December's high crossing at 76.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.63 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 75.99. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 76.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.63. Second support is December's low crossing at 73.30.
The March Japanese Yen closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0944. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-November-decline crossing at 0.0957. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.0918. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 0.0904.
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April gold closed lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1288.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If April resumes the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1320.10. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-August-Decline crossing at 1349.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1288.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1259.10.
March silver closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off January's high. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.425 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 15.955. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2017-2018-decline crossing at 16.279. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.425. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 14.868.
March copper closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.54 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 271.54. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 280.35.First support is January's low crossing at 254.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 251.75.
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March Corn closed up 6-cents at 3.80 1/2.
March corn closed higher on Thursday erasing all of Tuesday's losses. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 3.81 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is January's high crossing at 3.84 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 3.87 3/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.71. Second support is Nov.'s low crossing at 3.67 1/4.
March wheat closed up 5 1/2-cents at 5.18.
March wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.24 1/2 are needed to renew the rally off January's low. If March resumes the decline off December's high, psychological support crossing at 5.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.38 1/2. First support is January's low crossing at 5.01 1/4. Second support is psychological support crossing at 5.00.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 8 1/2-cents at 5.04.
March Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 5.05 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while renewing the rally off December's low. If March resumes the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 5.24 1/2. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 5.33 3/4. First support is December's low crossing at 4.87 1/4. Second support is November's low crossing at 4.82 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 7-cents at 5.72.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 5.23 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.74 1/2. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 5.89 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 5.44 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.23 3/4.
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March soybeans closed up 13-cents at 9.07 1/2.
March soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.10 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is January's high crossing at 9.27 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-September-decline crossing at 9.46 1/2. First support is December's low crossing at 8.80 1/4. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 8.71 1/4.
March soybean meal closed up $2.20 at 312.30.
March soybean meal closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 307.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 316.20 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at 324.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 327.40. First support is December's low crossing at 307.10. Second support is November's low crossing at 305.30.
March soybean oil closed up 53 pts. at 28.76.
March soybean oil closed higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off December's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 29.50 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 27.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 29.09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 29.50. First support is December's low crossing at 27.58. Second support is November's low crossing at 27.42.
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February hogs closed up $0.80 at $60.85.
February hogs closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 58.78 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.65. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 66.80. First support is today's low crossing at 59.12. Second support is October's low crossing at 58.78.
February cattle closed down $0.73 at 127.10.
February cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off 2018's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, weekly resistance crossing at 134.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 127.95. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 134.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124.20. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 122.06.
March Feeder cattle closed down $1.78 at $142.92.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 140.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 145.05 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 147.58. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 149.23. First support is January's low crossing at 142.00. Second support is December's low crossing at 140.35.
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March coffee closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 10.71 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off January's high, September's low crossing at 9.85 is the next downside target.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, July's high crossing at 25.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 13.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Thursday as it renewed the rally off January's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If March extends today's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 76.57 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 74.04 is the next downside target.